That means whenever we have heavy (and prolonged)
rainfall events in the future, we can expect them to be more intense.
Not exact matches
The indications of climate change are all around us today but now researchers have revealed for the first time when and where the first clear signs of global warming appeared
in the temperature record and where those signals are likely to be clearly seen
in extreme
rainfall events in the near
future.
But we do know, says Levermann, that extreme
rainfall events will increase
in the
future, and every projection shows much great land flooding
in some regions.
Periods that are of possibly the most interest for testing sensitivities associated with uncertainties
in future projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical
rainfall, sea ice), the 8.2 kyr
event (for the ocean thermohaline circulation), the last two millennia (for decadal / multi-decadal variability), the last interglacial (for ice sheets / sea level) etc..
More extreme
rainfall events are also expected
in the
future.
Precipitation occurs about once every seven days
in the western part of the region and once every three days
in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40 % of total precipitation
in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 %
in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest
rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation
events is projected to continue
in the
future.80
These factors point to a need for planners to account for such
rainfall events as housing and infrastructure development occurs
in this region, and for the possibility that the intensity and frequency of such
events might change
in the
future as the climate continues to warm.
Intense
rainfall events contribute a disproportionate amount of erosion relative to the total
rainfall contribution, and this effect will only be exacerbated
in the
future if the frequency of such storms increases.
Explains meteorologist Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research: «I have no equivocation
in saying that all heavy
rainfall events, including this one, have an element of climate change
in them, and the level of that contribution will increase
in the
future.»
The report says there is no change to the conclusion that heavy
rainfall events have increased
in the past, but there is greater confidence now that these will increase
in the
future.
While it is impossible at this point
in time to know how much the August 2016
rainfall was affected by climate change, it is clear that these
events will be more common
in the
future.