«When you take a very, very rare, extreme
rainfall event like Hurricane Harvey, and you shift the distribution of rain toward heavier amounts because of climate change, you get really big changes in the probability of those rare events,» Emanuel says.
Not exact matches
Events like record - setting heat, extreme
rainfall and drought will happen more frequently around the world even if global climate targets are met, new research suggests.
Under the Obama administration, climate change has been on the Department of Defense's radar from how it affects national security to how military installations around the world should prepare for climate impacts,
like sea level rise at naval bases, melting permafrost in the Arctic and more extreme
rainfall events around the world.
The scientists found an extreme
rainfall event that would normally happen once every 100 years (i.e. there's a one per cent risk of it occurring in any given year) is now happening more
like once in 80 years (or a 1.25 per cent risk).
It's difficult to say for certain that a particular extreme
event for the monsoon is attributable to anthropogenic climate change —
like the Pakistan floods of 2010 — but we do know that with a warming climate more moisture can be held in the atmosphere, leading to heavier
rainfall when it does occur.
Other major climate impacts at 2 degrees Celsisus include severe threats to coral reefs across the globe, a greater risk of long lasting heat waves and extreme
rainfall events, and the risk of lower yields for key crops
like wheat in the globe's tropical regions.
From historic droughts around the world and in places
like California, Syria, Brazil and Iran to inexorably increasing glacial melt; from an expanding blight of fish killing and water poisoning algae blooms in lakes, rivers and oceans to a growing rash of global record
rainfall events; and from record Arctic sea ice volume losses approaching 80 percent at the end of the summer of 2012 to a rapidly thawing permafrost zone explosively emitting an ever - increasing amount of methane and CO2, it's already a disastrous train - wreck.
As in that study, they analyzed the history of
rainfall measurements in the region to work out just how unusual the incredible
rainfall totals from Harvey were — and whether the chances of an
event like that have changed over time.
«Climate change means that when we do have an
event like Harvey, the
rainfall amounts are likely to be higher than they would have been otherwise,» UN spokeswoman Clare Nullis said at a conference.
He says average
rainfall for Australia will decrease, but the extreme weather
events will be on the rise, so while you might get less rain over the year it will come in the form of damaging storms and stronger winds which feel
like so - called freak
events.
If this can be achieved it should provide environmental benefits across the city and contribute to green infrastructure, particularly as climate change impacts
like urban heating and high
rainfall events increase.
But, as far as what we can expect from the IPCC and what the consensus science is, climate change is likely to lead to increased occurrences and intensity of extreme weather
events like heavy
rainfall, droughts, warm spells, storm surges, heat waves and sea level rise.
This
event is associated with cold and dry conditions increasing with latitude in the North, temperature and precipitation influences on tropical and boreal wetlands, Siberian -
like winters in much of the North Atlantic, weakening of monsoon intensity, and southward displacement of tropical
rainfall patterns.
Drought and heavy
rainfall events can make drinking water vulnerable to contamination and can ruin agriculture, leading to increases in incidents of water - borne infections and diseases
like cholera, as well as malnutrition and hunger when damaged farms fail to provide enough crops for the people who rely on them.