While a short - covering
rally in gold prices isn't entirely ruled out, the metal will ultimately see its appeal diminish as the Federal Reserve begins to hike interest rates, according to Martin Lakos, division director at Macquarie Private Wealth.
«The extent and speed of
the rally in gold prices is somewhat surprising as there are few pressing reasons to be bullish, indeed there are more headwinds than tailwinds,» ScotiaMocatta said in a monthly note, citing rising U.S. equity markets as well as higher U.S. interest rates.
I've seen a lot of commentary in which the author assumes that this year's
rally in the gold price is the first rally in a new cyclical bull market.
As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in «price inflation» or inflation expectations is needed to bring about a major
rally in the gold price.
Not exact matches
But today,
gold is getting massacred — it's been said to be
in a «death cross,» the market
rally means
prices are sliding, and sellers are getting desperate — and Paul's investments seem to be tanking too.
According to the data, the
gold price has
rallied early
in the year as we approached the Chinese New Year, then dipped
in the summer.
Following a January
rally, the global commodities complex underwent declines
in February before partially recovering
in March; for the first quarter as a whole, the benchmark Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB) gained 0.8 % on a
price - only basis.1 Among the 19 component commodities tracked by the CRB, advancers had a slight edge over decliners, buoyed by growth
in global economies and weakness
in the trade - weighted US dollar, which retreated 2.1 %, according to the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) US Dollar Index.1 Aside from robust gains for a host of agricultural products, oil and
gold were also among the commodity winners.
Gold futures climbed the most
in five months as a
rally for oil
prices revived demand for the metal as a store of value.
Investing.com —
Gold prices were set to snap a two - day losing streak after the
rally in the dollar paused while renewed geopolitical uncertainty stoked safe - haven...
Since the beginning of the second quarter of this year, spot
gold has been trading
in a tight $ 100 range, with the
price of the precious metal more or less confined
in the $ 1,200 - 1,300 per troy ounce band — and investor demand for the yellow metal has been continuing to wane as the global stock - market
rally continues unabated.
Top 5 things that rocked U.S. markets this week — a surge
in bond yields sparked investor concerns, crude oil
prices snap 2 - week winning streak, dollar extends
rally,
gold prices struggle, and Bitcoin update
This suggests that speculators have been stubbornly optimistic
in the face of a falling
price, which is far from the ideal situation for anyone hoping for a
gold rally.
Yesterday's sharp
rally in altcoin
prices stalled, and Bitcoin also failed to recover to its previous highs after the Bitcoin
Gold fork.
May 3 - Rising costs start to squeeze American businesse CNN Money May 3 - Home
Prices Jump Again And «$ 3 Gas Is Coming» Dollar Collapse May 3 -
Gold price claws its way higher on Fed meeting and geopolitics
Gold - Eagle May 2 - Q&A on SS Central America
Gold Coins CoinWeek May 2 - Goldman says case for owning commodities has «rarely been stronger» than it is now CNBC May 2 -
Gold, Silver See Corrective Bounces Ahead Of FOMC Statement Kitco May 1 -
Gold Eagle Sales Still Faltering While Mining Output Collapses — Perfect Storm Daily Coin May 1 - Relentless USD
Rally Is Precious Metal Kryptonite GoldSeek Apr 30 - Venezuelan Inflation: The Demise of Fiat Currency
in Real Time GoldSilver Apr 30 - Silver Market Update Clive P. Maund Apr 27 - Finest 1913 Liberty Head 5 - cent coin will headline ANA auction Coin World Apr 27 - PCGS security features help police nab suspects
in robbery case Coin Update Apr 27 - The Most Famous Coin of Antiquity — the Athenian Owl Coin Week Apr 27 -
Gold gains but remains vulnerable after Korean leaders meet Reuters Apr 26 - The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End NY Times Apr 26 - What Is
Gold: Asset, Commodity, Currency Or Collectible?
The
gold rally that began
in December of 2015 will differentiate itself from the 1982 - 1983 bear - market rebound if the
gold price closes above its July - 2016 peak AND the HUI closes above its August - 2016 peak.
In the last intermediate gold update, posted a month ago, it had become apparent that the 6 - month cycle in gold had bottomed and that prices had begun the next rally phas
In the last intermediate
gold update, posted a month ago, it had become apparent that the 6 - month cycle
in gold had bottomed and that prices had begun the next rally phas
in gold had bottomed and that
prices had begun the next
rally phase.
From this we inferred that
gold prices we set to stage a major
rally to a new all time high, so signalled to our subscribers to buy a great deal of out of the money GLD call options to benefit from this rise (more details can be viewed
in our full trading records, which is published on our website).
Silver and
gold prices will
rally much higher based on increased investor demand
in a supply constrained market.
Gold prices rallied to $ 1,234 a troy ounce, their highest level since Sept. 23, a day after minutes from the Fed's September policy meeting revealed officials were worried weaker growth
in Asia and Europe could curtail U.S. exports.
Even during the 1970s, the period when the
gold price famously rocketed upward
in parallel with increasing fear of «inflation», the
gold rally was mostly about declining real interest rates and declining confidence
in both monetary and fiscal governance.
GoldSeek Epic battle rages on: «Ali - Frazier»
in the Crimex pits Streetwise Reports The China Rare Earth Association takes stock Industrial Minerals Lithium's state of affairs Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Gold stock
rally's market cap bias may surprise you SmallCapPower Commodity veteran says you just can't tell when markets will turn NAI 500 Electric car war sends lithium
prices sky high Stockhouse
Also, there could be a strong
rally in the US$
gold price in the face of neutral - bearish fundamentals.
That large rises
in the
gold price are NOT primarily driven by increasing fear of «inflation» is evidenced by the fact that the large multi-year
gold rallies of 2001 - 2006 and 2008 - 2011 began amidst FALLING inflation expectations.
This would suggest that, minimally, the open interest needs to drop by 60 - 70k contracts before the
gold COT structure can be considered favorable for a
rally in the
price of
gold.
While
gold prices have more or less remained
in a tight band from the start of 2016, the escalating crisis
in the Middle East has led to massive volatility
in crude - oil
prices, and at the end of November this year, crude oil has
rallied by 55 percent compared to the 20 - percent gain
in gold.
The
rally in gold stock
prices late
in the week gave us an opportunity to clip our exposure back to about 6 % of assets
in Strategic Total Return.
As
gold prices near $ 2,000 (U.S.) an ounce, some bulls say it's time to take money off the table after the bullion
rally extended too far, too fast
in recent weeks.
Also, there could be a strong
rally in the US$
gold price in the face of neutral - bearish fundamentals.
Not to mention that back
in 2008 - 2009, the
price of
gold rallied in a low interest rate environment.
The
price rally of
Gold faltered
in the last two months specially due to strengthening of dollars and global equities setting new record.
Kristian Rouz — The ongoing
rally in stocks, coupled with subdued market volatility, suppressed international
gold prices this week.
In a recent interview, he said, this year's rapid Bitcoin
price rally has not yet convinced him to trade his
gold bars for bitcoins.