There is a projected reduction of sea ice in the 21st century in both the Arctic and Antarctic with a rather large
range of model responses.
Also, even though we focus on the ensemble - mean response,
the range of model responses is also interesting and important to understand; and the climate model response of large - scale environmental conditions needs to be more explicitly connected to the response of tropical storms.
Not exact matches
It
modeled the implications for the company
of a requirement for emissions to decline to levels consistent with a so - called «2 °C world» after 2030 and also looked at a number
of alternative scenarios based on divergent
ranges in global growth and trade, geopolitics, technological innovation and
responses to climate change.
«It's useful in
modeling concepts in neuroscience to have a system that will yield a diverse
range of behaviors for small changes
of a control parameter, as this may help offer some insights about how the same neural tissue displays different
responses,» Alonso said, whose research was funded by a fellowship from the Leon Levy Foundation.
«We eliminated this problem by assessing infants»
responses to a wide
range of different
models.»
Our technological expertise
ranges from the most fundamental approaches to study membrane transport in lymphocytes and dendritic cells (subcellular compartmentalization, intravital microscopy, phagosomal functions), the systematic analysis
of gene expression and it regulation (RNAseq, Chip Seq, proteomics) and physiological and pathological immune
responses (mouse
models for cancer immunity, immunomodulation / vaccination, human clinical studies in cancer).
[
Response: The ECHO - G
model has a climate sensitivity that is within the standard
range of the
models considered by IPCC (around 2.6 deg C for 2xCO2 I think).
This is similar to the
range of responses to this scenario based on the seven versions
of the simple
model used in Figure 22.
In
response, Jacobson and colleagues at Stanford, the University
of California at Berkeley and Aalborg University in Denmark have now produced a new study, focusing on 20 global regions encompassing the 139 countries, with supply and demand matching
modelled for a
range of storage / backup options over the period 2050 - 54.
The Chronic Social Defeat Stress (CSDS) mouse
model has received much interest recently as it closely mimics the dynamic
range of individual
responses to stressors such as the development
of a major depressive disorder, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder or resil ¬ iency to these disease states.
Model intercomparison studies (e.g., Gregory et al., 2005; Rahmstorf et al., 2005; Stouffer et al., 2006) were developed to identify and understand the causes for the wide
range of MOC
responses in the coupled
models used here (see Chapters 4, 6 and 10).
For understanding the biology
of gene - gene, gene - drug and gene - microenvironment interactions, a considerably broader
range of in vitro and in vivo
model systems is required — we are generating 1,000 organoid cultures from human cancers, characterising their genomes, functional dependencies and drug
response, and we are expanding our in vivo
models to study the interface between cancer and the immune system and microenvironment.
Although dynamic vegetation
models tend to predict an overall expansion
of cool forests and woodlands (Shafer et al. 2015), some tree species may actually experience reduced
ranges due to geographical obstacles to
range expansion in
response to climate (Coops and Waring 2001).
The paper's lead author describes his findings thus — «Recent observations suggest the expected rate
of warming in
response to rising greenhouse gas levels, or «Transient Climate Response,» is likely to lie within the range of current climate models, but not at the high end of thi
response to rising greenhouse gas levels, or «Transient Climate
Response,» is likely to lie within the range of current climate models, but not at the high end of thi
Response,» is likely to lie within the
range of current climate
models, but not at the high end
of this
range.
Within the integrated Earth system science paradigm, our major research thrusts include the physics and chemistry
of aerosols, clouds and precipitation; integrating our understanding
of climate, energy, and other human and natural systems through the development and application
of models that span a wide
range of spatial scales; and determining the impacts
of and informing
responses to climate and other global and regional environmental changes.
Wigley et al. (1997) pointed out that uncertainties in forcing and
response made it impossible to use observed global temperature changes to constrain ECS more tightly than the
range explored by climate
models at the time (1.5 °C to 4.5 °C), and particularly the upper end
of the
range, a conclusion confirmed by subsequent studies.
Another approach uses the
response of climate
models, most often simple climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models, most often simple climate
models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models or Earth System
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the
range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., 2006).
Full - complexity Earth system
models (ESMs) produce spatial and temporal detail, but an ensemble
of ESMs are computationally costly and do not generate probability distributions; instead, they yield
ranges of different
modeling groups» semi-independent «best estimates»
of climate
responses.
A
range of activities on unseen poetry, including a past paper style question, mark scheme and
model paragraph
responses.
A collection
of 10 resources featuring extracts from across the play; a
range of activities / starters, a breakdown
of analysis, «how to» guides for writing a
response to an extract question,
model paragraphs and opportunities for peer marking after a timed
response.
Standard on
Range Rover Velar
models, our unique Terrain
Response systems enable the driver to optimise the vehicle's engine, gearbox, centre differential and chassis systems to match the demands
of the terrain, by selecting one
of the easily identifiable driving modes.
After getting a major performance enhancement for the 2013
model year that gained extra 15 horsepower and 15 lb - ft
of torque to 545 horsepower and 463 lb - ft
of torque, the Nissan GT - R is entering 2014 with another performance improvement which includes better torque
response in the 4,500 — 6,000 rpm
range, enhanced throttle and acceleration feel at mid - and high - rpm
ranges.
The Track Edition's performance enhancements are added to a significant number
of upgrades to the GT - R for the 2014
model year,
ranging from the adoption
of new fuel injectors for enhanced torque
response in the 4,500 to 6,000 - rpm
range and improved throttle and acceleration feel at mid - and high - rpm
ranges, to the addition
of an oil pan baffle to stabilize oil turbulence and oil pressure under high performance driving conditions.
Handling and performance across the
model range can also be managed via a series
of Terrain
Response 2 options.
The annual report analyzed
responses from 83,442 respondents about 230 vehicle
models and attributes across eight categories, including the driving experience, engine and transmission and a broad
range of quality problem symptoms reported by vehicle owners.
The steering and suspension have also been tuned to provide crisper, sharper
responses than in the regular Sport
model, with alterations to the software
of the Dynamic Drive system making the SVR feel much more focused on the road, says
Range Rover.
But the other note
of caution is that, although all
models get Terrain
Response, the more sophisticated Terrain
Response 2 is optional across the
range for $ 430, as is a full - size spare wheel (which adds $ 1020 and reduces luggage space to a still reasonable 558 litres), and an active locking rear diff is only available in V6
models ($ 1100).
This was a move foreseen by many and comes as a
response to the already broad
range of M Performance
models offered by Mercedes - Benz's main rival, BMW.
There are tons
of studies —
ranging from paleoclimate studies to studies
of volcanic effects, etc. that constrain climate
response and which generally yield results consistent with the
models.
[
Response: If you screen the
models to have surface trends similar to that observed, you do reduce the tropospheric
range of responses, but error bars still overlap with the uncertainty in the obs.
Paleoclimatic and
modeling constraints put a 2x CO2
response at 2 to 4.5 C which is still a large
range (clouds have a lot to do with that) but it is very unlikely that clouds can produce such a change to force the
response outside
of that
range.
Climate
models have passed a broad
range of validation tests — e.g. a 30 - year warming trend,
response to perturbations like ENSO and volcanic eruptions... On the other hand, in a statistical
model, parameters
of the
model are determined by a fit to the
model.
The possibility
of observation -
model mismatch due to internal variability must also be accounted for... so in fact, attribution studies sample the
range of possible forcings /
responses even more completely than a climate
model does.
This is similar to the
range of responses to this scenario based on the seven versions
of the simple
model used in Figure 22.
I will anticipate the
response that
model results lie within a
range (the IPCC stated one
of which you in fact dismiss as being useful).
There's a reason why USGS PAGER estimates [a
model called Prompt Assessment
of Global Earthquakes for
Response] use
ranges, with a logarithmic scale.
Ricarda Winkelmann et al.
modeled the
response of the Antarctic ice sheet to a wide
range of future carbon emissions scenarios over the long - term (previous simulations have mainly looked at changes that might occur on a shorter timescale).
Individual
responses continue to be based on a
range of methods: statistical, numerical
models, comparison with previous rates
of sea ice loss, composites
of several approaches, estimates based on various non sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the heuristic category).
Individual
responses continue to be based on a
range of methods: statistical, numerical
models, comparison with previous rates
of sea ice loss, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the «heuristic» category).
Indeed, his Table I shows that whereas the
response of the climate system to clouds by various
models varied from 0.04 to 0.37 (a wide spread), the variation
of net feedback from clouds varied only from 0.49 to 0.73 (a much narrower relative
range).
For example, Brown and Caldeira (2017) use fluctuations in Earth's top -
of - the - atmosphere (TOA) energy budget and their correlation with the
response of climate
models to increases in GHG concentrations to infer that ECS lies between 3 and 4.2 K with 50 % probability, and most likely is 3.7 K. Assuming t statistics, this roughly corresponds to an ECS
range that in IPCC parlance is considered likely (66 % probability) between 2.8 and 4.5 K. By contrast, Cox et al. (2018) use fluctuations
of the global - mean temperature and their correlation with the
response of climate
models to increases in GHG concentrations to infer that ECS likely lies between 2.2 and 3.4 K, and most likely is 2.8 K.
As an example, Hohenegger et al (2009) investigated the triggering
of precipitation in
response to soil moisture anomalies with a set
of regional
models ranging in physical formulation and resolution.
More
of that stuff in the middle white space... — «consistent with the estimated
responses» — well, it may well be, but that doesn't prove much — remember that the
models, so far as they go, do predict some things that don't appear to be happening in the real world (tropospheric warming, etc)-- the fact that one particular number happens to be within a (fairly large)
range of predictions is not especially persuasive.
We derive these values from the spread
of IPCC
model responses, realizing that these
models do have systematic errors, but reproduce historic variations well enough to have confidence about the approximate
range of warming in 2050.
Individual
responses were based on a
range of methods: statistical, numerical
models, comparison with previous observations and rates
of ice loss, and composites
of several approaches.
They then matched the
response to temperature for both total daily demand and daily peak load, and played with 20 climate
models to allow for a
range of scenarios.
In this way, we can obtain the expected
range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics
of the observed NAO record in combination with the
model's radiatively - forced
response (given by the ensemble - mean
of the 40 simulations).
We find that the expected 95 %
range of future climate trends induced by NAO fluctuations estimated from the observed statistics
of the NAO and the
modeled response to increased GHGs is largely similar to that obtained from the CESM - LE directly, attesting to the fidelity
of the
model's representation
of the NAO and the utility
of this approach.
The individual
responses were based on a
range of methods: statistical, numerical
models, comparison with previous observations and rates
of ice loss, or composites
of several approaches; details can be found in the individual outlooks available at the bottom
of this page.
Seven global vegetation
models are used to analyze possible
responses to future climate simulated by a
range of general circulation
models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios
of changing concentrations
of greenhouse gases.