Sentences with phrase «range of model simulations»

The red and grey plumes show the 5 — 95 % range of model simulations under the different RCP scenarios and 1 % annual CO2 increase scenarios, respectively.

Note that the observations are no longer outside the range of model simulations.

As can be seen in Figure 2, the observational data (in black) falls within the range of climate model simulations that are run using all forcings (shaded red), but lies outside the range of model simulations run using only natural forcings (dashed blue lines).

See our previous post on the range of model simulations for the recent period — which include a significant number that have similar trends to observed, even while they have the same long term trends.

Not exact matches

Further detailed experiments on a wide range of parameters, theoretical modelling and numerical simulation are still needed.

Which suggests the chief application of Batygin's formalism may not be to model a wide range of systems but rather to make models for a narrow range of systems far less computationally expensive than N - body simulations.

The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

This model is just the first of a full range of simulations that he hopes researchers will be able to use to develop better drugs and pacemakers.

By using simulations that were created by running the same model multiple times, with only tiny differences in the initial starting conditions, the scientists could examine the range of summertime temperatures we might expect in the future for the «business - as - usual» and reduced - emissions scenarios.

Daily snowfall in a range of climate model simulations has recently been made available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — a growing archive of climate modeling output, including snowfall, that modeling centers and researchers around the world contribute to and anamodel simulations has recently been made available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — a growing archive of climate modeling output, including snowfall, that modeling centers and researchers around the world contribute to and anaModel Intercomparison Project — a growing archive of climate modeling output, including snowfall, that modeling centers and researchers around the world contribute to and analyze.

FMI has been involved in research project, which evaluated the simulations of long - range transport of BB aerosol by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS - 5) and four other global aerosol models over the complete South African - Atlantic region using Cloud - Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations to find any distinguishing or common model biases.

«Despite being very warm, 2014 still leaves the observed warming in the lower part of the range of climate model simulations.»

The black line indicates observed temperature change, while the coloured bands show the combined range covered by 90 % of recent model simulations.

We have observed nucleation droplets in our Langevin simulations of a two - dimensional model of martensitic transformations and have determined that the structure of the nucleating drople... ▽ More Systems with long - range interactions quenched into a metastable state near the pseudospinodal exhibit nucleation that is qualitatively different than the classical nucleation observed near the coexistence curve.

As an application of our method, we examine thermal phase mixing in the context of Ginzburg - Landau models with short - range interac... ▽ More We show how to achieve lattice - spacing independent results in numerical simulations of finite - temperature stochastic scalar field theories.

To provide guidance for future high - resolution simulations, Dai et al. used a computationally cheaper, two - dimensional chemical transport model to systematically estimate the effects of injecting sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols at a range of altitudes, latitudes, and time frames for 62 separate scenarios.

The models include a new wind braking law based on recent numerical simulations of magnetized stellar winds and specific dynamo and mass - loss prescriptions a... ▽ More We present new models for the rotational evolution of solar - like stars between 1 Myr and 10 Gyr with the aim to reproduce the distributions of rotational periods observed for star forming regions and young open clusters within this age range.

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

We use the full range of tools available to modern biology, from ecological field surveys and experiments to population genomics, mathematical modeling, and computer simulations.

Our long - term simulation model provides critical insight into how much income replacement we can expect our glide path to deliver across a full range of interest rate environments a participant could face at retirement.

There are limitations in using a Monte Carlo simulation, including the analysis is only as good as the assumptions, and despite modeling for a range of uncertainties in the future, it does not eliminate uncertainty.

Lured and attuned to the simulative properties and potentials of a rather curious range of materials and mechanical processes, Lefcourt creates works — call them objects, call them items, call them paintings — that leave viewers questioning how much deeper or more detailed their envisioned origins might run, how much further their eventually depicted apertures might open, how many more machines and manual «modelings» could be incorporated into the artist's procedures of representation and simulation.

The fact that a wide range of different models (including ours) give a reasonably good simulation of the past millennium with this forcing was already shown in the IPCC AR4, see Figs. 6.13 and 6.14.

BVP simulations do not have such a dependence and have stable statistics regardless of how they are initialised (at least for IC perturbations within the range of actual observations and for the class of model that was used for AR4).

In any specific model, the range of short term trends in the ensemble is quite closely related to their simulation of ENSO - like behaviour.

Ricarda Winkelmann et al. modeled the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to a wide range of future carbon emissions scenarios over the long - term (previous simulations have mainly looked at changes that might occur on a shorter timescale).

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

So the two estimates (with and without solar forcing) give me a range of 0.7 C to 1.4 C for the 2xCO2 climate sensitivity, based on actually observed CO2 and temperature records, rather than model simulations and assumptions.

Also referred to as synthetic scenarios (IPCC, 1994), they are commonly applied to study the sensitivity of an exposure unit to a wide range of variations in climate, often according to a qualitative interpretation of projections of future regional climate from climate model simulations (guided sensitivity analysis, see IPCC - TGCIA, 1999).

«The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 non-overlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 - 2008 trend -LRB--0.05 to +0.05 C per decade).»

A much larger range of forcing combinations and climate model simulations has been analysed in detection studies than was available for the TAR (Supplementary Material, Table S9.1).

They represent how parameter magnitudes varied across their uncertainty ranges affect the temperature simulations of the HadCM3L model itself.

Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for u, it remains almost time - invariant for a wide range of twenty - first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century.

This is due in part to the difficulties of evaluating runoff simulations across a range of climate models due to variations in rainfall, snowmelt and net radiation.

It is still the case that observations are more - or-less in the middle of the model simulations, but it can now be seen that the range of simulated values for absolute global average temperature is pretty large (~ 2.5 C).

However, the wide range and finite number of simulation outputs render modeled relationships between temperature and Antarctic sea - level contribution locally nonmonotonic.

Further estimates of internal variability can be produced from long control simulations with climate models... Expert judgments or multi-model techniques may be used to incorporate as far as possible the range of variability in climate models and to assign uncertainty levels, confidence in which will need to be assessed.»

Well the take away message seems that given the large range of paleoclimate reconstructions, you can cherry pick them to agree ok with your model simulations.

IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability: «Observed Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies... lie well outside the range of Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies in CMIP5 simulations with natural forcing only, but are consistent with the ensemble of CMIP5 simulations including both anthropogenic and natural forcing...» (Ref.: Working Group I contribution to fifth assessment report by IPCC.

It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow - related climate parameters, such as cold - region temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models.

If the distance of future simulations from the established range of model validity is small, it reasonable to extend established confidence in the model to the perturbed future state.

> A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections compared with the TAR is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.

Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800 - 1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880 - 2009,2 and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.3 The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100.4 These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies.

Using a fire simulation model, Cochrane et al. [60] found that landscape - scale mechanical thinning that preceded actual wildfires could have reduced the average size of six wildfires in ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests in California and the southwestern United States by an average of 18 % (range 0.3 to 65 %).

Because the models are not deterministic, multiple simulations are needed to compare with observations, and the number of simulations conducted by modeling centers are insufficient to create a pdf with a robust mean; hence bounding box approaches (assessing whether the range of the ensembles bounds the observations) are arguably a better way to establish empirical adequacy.

A unified treatment of weather and climate models (i.e. the same dynamical cores for the atmosphere and ocean are used for models across the range of time scales) transfers confidence from the weather and seasonal climate forecast models to the climate models used in century scale simulations.

Using a simulation model, Brown and Fogel [40] found that thinning approximately 9,300 ha (23,000 acres) of ponderosa pine per year over a 10 - year period produced increases in runoff that ranged from 0.28 to 11.8 million m3 / year (230 — 9,600 acre - feet / year).

Research addressing this question relies on global climate model simulations based on a range of anticipated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.

Using three model simulations together, their estimated median TCR is 2.1 °C at the time of CO2 doubling (based on a 1 % yr — 1 increase in CO2), with a 5 to 95 % range of 1.5 °C to 2.8 °C.

In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively - forced response (given by the ensemble - mean of the 40 simulations).