But if we cut through the spagetti, and highlight the real
range of temperature observations, the graph looks more like this:
Not exact matches
By simulating past summers — instead
of relying solely on
observations — the scientists established a large
range of temperatures that could have occurred naturally under the same conditions, including greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic eruptions.
However, we also specifically show how high - contrast AO and speckle imaging
observations detect companions at larger separations ($ \ theta \ geq $ 0.02 - 0.05») that are missed by the spectroscopic technique, provide additional information for characterizing the companion and its potential contamination (e.g., PA, separation, $ \ Delta $ m), and cover a wider
range of primary star effective
temperatures.
Depending on the time
of the
observation correction approach chosen, the resulting
temperature trends between 1979 and 2016
ranged from as low as 0.13 C per decade to as high as 0.22 C per decade.
We use simple representations
of the carbon cycle and global
temperature, consistent with
observations, to simulate transient global
temperature and assess carbon emission scenarios that could keep global climate near the Holocene
range.
(6) In a case where a specimen is collected under direct
observation because
of the
temperature being out
of range, you must process both the original specimen and the specimen collected using direct
observation and send the two sets
of specimens to the laboratory.
• When a specimen is out
of temperature range or shows signs
of tampering and the employee refuses to provide a second specimen under direct
observation, it is considered a refusal to test.
The model variables that are evaluated against all sorts
of observations and measurements
range from solar radiation and precipitation rates, air and sea surface
temperatures, cloud properties and distributions, winds, river runoff, ocean currents, ice cover, albedos, even the maximum soil depth reached by plant roots (seriously!).
This is the same thing that became evident when RealClimate used that broad
range of outputs to explain why there are «no» clear model - data inconsistencies regarding the tropical troposphere
temperature observations.
The second
observation relates to the apparent difference in the wet / dry adiabatic altitude at
temperatures in the
range of -30 Deg C. Apparently, the British Arctic Survey Team operating out
of Northern Canada in 2006 seemed to suggest that the formation
of ice / snow in the upper atmospheric region
of around 250mb seems to be remaining as super cooled water drops.
Regardless
of whether such adjustments are applied to the climate model output, the
observations, using the latest data, fall inside the modeled
range when we consider the numerous sources
of uncertainty for surface
temperature data (c.f. Fig 4).
The models are gauged against the following
observation - based datasets: Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis
of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) for precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre for Medium
Range Weather Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005) for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999) for surface
temperature (1961 — 1990).
All
temperatures from
observations have an uncertainty
range of ± 0.1 °C so it is important not to read too much into the individual rankings for each year.
It is still the case that
observations are more - or-less in the middle
of the model simulations, but it can now be seen that the
range of simulated values for absolute global average
temperature is pretty large (~ 2.5 C).
Looking at the many thousands
of observations I have collected from personal research at a mumber
of places
ranging from The Met office archives and Library, The Scott Polar Institue in Cambridge, The library
of Exeter Cathedral etc I do not recognise the
temperature tendancy that the graphs in the article demonstrated particularly as regards the blade reading so much warmer than other periods..
As you mention below you would need to have estimates
of the diurnal
temperature range at different locations and times
of year and to know the
observation times and locations
of all the
observations to see how they all interact.
«Using a mixture
of observations and climate model outputs and a simple parametrization
of leaf - level photosynthesis incorporating known
temperature sensitivities, we find no evidence for tropical forests currently existing «dangerously close» to their optimum
temperature range.
It should say something like «Although CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have risen in line with earlier projections, globally - averaged
temperature observations have risen less than projected and are currently at or below the low end
of the
range in past IPCC assessments.»
temperature could have exacerbated the 2014 drought by approximately 36 %... These
observations from the paleoclimate record suggest that high
temperatures have combined with the low but not yet exceptional precipitation deficits to create the worst short - term drought
of the last millennium for the state
of California... Future severe droughts are expected to be in part driven by anthropogenic influences and
temperatures outside the
range of the last millennium.
This is based on a
range of evidence including past
temperature proxies and climate histories, and present day
observations.
We use simple representations
of the carbon cycle and global
temperature, consistent with
observations, to simulate transient global
temperature and assess carbon emission scenarios that could keep global climate near the Holocene
range.
As far as I can tell, in each
of those areas the debate takes basically the same shape as with
temperatures: «skeptics» claiming that short - term
observations disprove long - term predictions and «realists» saying that the short - term variability is within long - term error
ranges.
If there were global
temperatures more than 2 °C
of 3 °C above the current average
temperature, this would take the climate outside
of the
range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years.»
aaron says: «ie., could differences such as altitude
range of observation affect timing
of when heat is observed as
temperature and explain variance.
ie., could differences such as altitude
range of observation affect timing
of when heat is observed as
temperature and explain variance.
Second, orbital instrumental
observations provide only a recent record
of land surface area
temperature assessment, and the methods involved had to be calibrated against the prevailing standards
of proximal thermometric determination, the widely -
ranged system
of meteorological thermometers in these United States providing (as others here have observed) a sort
of «gold standard» in terms
of technology, maintenance, and reliability as compared with similar broadly spaced systems
of monitoring stations.
But as long as the true
temperatures are distributed more or less continuously and smoothly over a wide
range, the «expected value»
of the rounding error in a randomly selected
observation will be very very close to zero.
A wide
range of other
observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and increased ocean heat content) and indications from the natural world (such as poleward shifts
of temperature - sensitive species
of fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence
of planetary - scale warming.
Types
of ground - based
observations include synoptic cloud extent, cloud base height
observations, diurnal
temperature range (DTR) variations, diffuse radiation measurements and sunshine measurements.
3) However, even if the actual variance in TSI during that period was less than 4 Watts per square metre the fact is that various changes in
temperature trend did occur and the shape
of the chart would remain so on the basis
of real world
observations we must accept that the lower the
range of TSI involved then the more sensitive the Earth is as a water based thermometer.
Knutti and Hegerl in the November, 2008 Natural Geoscience paper, The equilibrium sensitivity
of the Earth's
temperature to radiation changes, says various
observations favor a climate sensitivity value
of about 3 degrees C, with a likely
range of about 2 — 4.5 degrees C per the following graphic whereas the current IPCC uncertainty is
range is between 1.5 - 4.5 degrees C.
When corrected, the
range of likely warming based on surface
temperature observations is in line with earlier estimates, despite the recent slowdown.
Moreover, the model - simulated rates
of radiative damping are consistent with those obtained from satellite
observations and are indicative
of a strong positive correlation between
temperature and water vapor variations over a broad
range of spatiotemporal scales.