As such, monitoring Arctic ice thickness may be useful for predicting
rapid changes in sea ice.
Not exact matches
Its core is a flurry of recent research proposing that such extreme weather events
in the midlatitudes are linked through the atmosphere with the effects of
rapid climate
change in the Arctic, such as dwindling
sea ice.
Cryosphere Systems: How do
rapid changes in cryosphere (continental and ocean
ice) systems evolve with the earth system, and contribute to
sea - level rise and increased coastal vulnerability?
We were particularly interested
in the nature of this relationship because of the hypothesized seasonal movement of krill to inshore waters around the Antarctic Peninsula
in winter,
rapid changes in the climate and
sea ice patterns of the Antarctic peninsula [15], [16] and the known relationships between baleen whales and krill.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more
rapid than expected declines
in sea ice and attendant decreases
in albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and
ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
Current
changes in the ocean around Antarctica are disturbingly close to conditions 14,000 years ago that new research shows may have led to the
rapid melting of Antarctic
ice and an abrupt 3 - 4 metre rise
in global
sea level.
The global mean temperature rise of less than 1 degree C
in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic
in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 %
in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and
rapid climate
change.
That estimate was based
in part on the fact that
sea level is now rising 3.2 mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order of magnitude faster than the rate during the prior several thousand years, with
rapid change of
ice sheet mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating rates [23]--[24].
We propose that past abrupt climate
changes were probably a result of
rapid and extensive variations
in sea -
ice cover.
Even
in the absence of huge amounts of carbon dioxide as a forcing mechanism, he said, there still appear to be trigger points that, once passed, can produce
rapid warming through feedbacks such as
changes in sea ice and the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more
rapid than expected declines
in sea ice and attendant decreases
in albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and
ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
From the still - violent Amazon frontier to the thawing North Pole
sea ice there are signs that science, education, transparency and global communication networks can foster progress even
in the face of
rapid change.
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of
changes in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the
RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the decline
in minimum extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.
The end of the first half of the Holocene — between about 5 and 4 ka — was punctuated by
rapid events at various latitudes, such as an abrupt increase
in NH
sea ice cover (Jennings et al., 2001); a decrease
in Greenland deuterium excess, reflecting a
change in the hydrological cycle (Masson - Delmotte et al., 2005b); abrupt cooling events
in European climate (Seppa and Birks, 2001; Lauritzen, 2003); widespread North American drought for centuries (Booth et al., 2005); and
changes in South American climate (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004).
Sea level rise, ocean acidification and the
rapid melting of massive
ice sheets are among the significantly increased effects of human - induced global warming assessed
in the survey, which also examines the emissions of heat - trapping gases that are causing the climate
change.
«At the end of the last
ice age around 11,000 years ago, the
ice sheet went through a period of
rapid, sustained
ice loss when
changes in global weather patterns and rising
sea levels pushed warm water closer to the
ice sheet — just as is happening today,» NASA said.
-LSB-...]
In fact, the global
sea -
ice record shows virtually no
change throughout the past 30 years, because the quite
rapid loss of Arctic
sea ice since the satellites were watching has been matched by a near - equally
rapid gain of Antarctic
sea ice.
Polyak et al. (2010) looked at Arctic
sea ice changes throughout geologic history and noted that the current rate of loss appears to be more
rapid than natural variability can account for
in the historical record.
The supposed stable configuration of geography, with relatively predictable climate patterns, coastlines and icepacks
in familiar locations, and clear demarcations of territorial control on land are increasingly dubious assumptions as weather patterns
change,
sea levels rise and
ice packs disintegrate while technological innovations, communications and global markets cause
rapid fluctuations
in the price
in food and other essentials across boundaries.
The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment of climate
change science concluded that large reductions
in the emissions of greenhouse gases, principally CO2, are needed soon to slow the increase of atmospheric concentrations, and avoid reaching unacceptable levels.However, climate
change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic
sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise
in the
sea level has become more
rapid.
The result is a dramatic image of historic
sea level
change that goes beyond what is expected
in the coming decades due to
rapid global warming - induced
ice cap melting.
The team believes the ancient tropical warming caused large,
rapid atmospheric
changes at the equator, the intensification of the Pacific monsoon,
sea -
ice loss
in the north Atlantic Ocean and more atmospheric heat and moisture over Greenland and much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
As
sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less
ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually
ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend
in sea ice, there will be time periods with both
rapid ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term
changes in ice conditions.
That estimate was based
in part on the fact that
sea level is now rising 3.2 mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order of magnitude faster than the rate during the prior several thousand years, with
rapid change of
ice sheet mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating rates [23]--[24].
The
rapid changes underway
in the Arctic are partly caused by the disappearance of
sea ice, which causes more light and heat to be absorbed at the ocean's surface during sunny months instead of being reflected into space.
The iconic image of
rapid Arctic climate
change is the dramatic reduction
in sea ice.
[G] iven the
rapid pace of ecological
change in the Arctic, the long generation time, and the highly specialised nature of polar bears, it is unlikely that polar bears will survive as a species if the
sea ice disappears completely.
Arctic summer
sea ice is
in rapid decline [2nd lowest extent on record after 2007, and perhaps more importantly, the lowest volume of
ice ever — this, along with the methane increase, could indicate a tipping element has been crossed that will kick climate
change into a higher gear]
The
rapid nature of observed and predicted
changes in the Arctic suggests that Arctic
sea ice could possibly undergo nonlinear threshold behavior as it retreats.
Such weather patterns, which can feature relatively mild conditions
in the Arctic at the same time dangerously cold conditions exist
in vast parts of the lower 48, may be tied to the
rapid warming and loss of
sea ice in the Arctic due,
in part, to manmade climate
change.
For the main discussion of
rapid changes in ice sheets, see the essay on Ice Sheets and Rising Se
ice sheets, see the essay on
Ice Sheets and Rising Se
Ice Sheets and Rising
Seas.
There must have been brief periods of very
rapid temperature
change mixed
in there (certainly on the regional level)
in addition to slower - warming periods, and I'm under the impression other data (such as Greenland
ice cores and deep -
sea cores) support that scenario as well.
Seems to me David's mistake is not noticing that the
rapid events are internal to the climate system, not external; they may cause fast
changes in albedo for example for a while; and they are modeled, see Dr. Bitz's work on Arctic
sea ice, or any model including volcanos or Atlantic deep water currents etc..
If
sea level begins
changing more rapidly, for example due to
rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics, then this simple extrapolation will likely represent a conservative lower bound on future
sea - level
change.
Since the TAR, increasing evidence has emerged indicating a more
rapid disappearance of snow and
sea - ice cover in some areas (e.g., Siberia, Alaska, the Greenland Sea), and consequent changes of albedo may be leading to further climate change (e.g., Holland and Bitz, 200
sea -
ice cover
in some areas (e.g., Siberia, Alaska, the Greenland
Sea), and consequent changes of albedo may be leading to further climate change (e.g., Holland and Bitz, 200
Sea), and consequent
changes of albedo may be leading to further climate
change (e.g., Holland and Bitz, 2003).