Not exact matches
It influences interest
rates around the
world and affects everything from
bond and stock prices to currencies to mortgage and car loans.
While investors will have to find stocks with higher yields, pay more for them and take on more risk in
bonds, the biggest change in a permanently low -
rate world is that people will need to set aside more of every paycheque if they want to keep the same goal for retirement income.
Famed
bond fund manager Bill Gross attacked the use of negative
rates as an attempt to mask the symptoms of an unhealthy global economy, while Ray Dalio, the head of the
world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has recently argued that negative
rates will be ineffective at boosting growth.
In a presentation earlier in September, Gundlach said that interest
rates around the
world had bottomed and he expected both
rates and
bond yields to move higher.
China may witness its first local government
bond defaults, although the timing was uncertain, Fitch
Ratings said in a press release issued on Sunday, amid persistent concerns over high debt levels in the
world second largest economy.
S&P gave the AMNH's recent
bond issuance a very high AAA
rating, indicating the museum's «pre-eminence» as one of the
world's top natural history museums.
World shares and
bonds rallied on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest
rates unchanged and slowed the pace of future hikes, weakening the dollar and lifting commodity prices.
After
World War II, which is the only example I know of, it wasn't until like 1950 where they let 10 - year
bond rates go.
Last week I looked at some of the options available to
bond investors in a low
rate world.
In a zero - interest
rate world (Figure 7), these provide yields that are much higher than those found in more conventional investments like U.S. Treasury
bonds or money market accounts.
So the big question in the
world of economics is whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates and end their
bond buying program known as quantitative easing.
As a percentage of GDP, more than half of the outstanding sovereign
bonds in the developed
world originated from countries or regions where negative interest
rate policies are in place, primarily representing
bonds from the euro zone and Japan.
Bonds, stocks and real estate, he writes, are overvalued because of near zero percent interest
rates and a developed
world growth
rate closer to zero than the 3 % to 4 % historical norms.
As yields across the
world continue to be pushed lower by highly accommodative monetary policies, international investors are fleeing low (or negative)
rates offered by many DM government
bonds.
This index is very heavy on government
bonds and mortgages, and in a
world of potentially rising
rates, nobody wants to be tied to the «Agg,» as it is known.
Bluford Putnam, managing director and chief economist at CME Group, the
world's biggest futures market operator, agreed that the Fed's near - zero interest
rates and
bond purchases helped stabilize financial markets and bolstered the economy — but only for a while.
«The
bond market represents more of an evolving risk given the likely onset of Federal Reserve
rate hikes near - term, which in turn will lead to speculation as to when the rest of the
world will follow,» said Gayle.
Chapters 17 - 34 describe the global database used for the book and provide appendix - like results for equities,
bonds, bills, exchange
rate and inflation for each of 16 countries and the
world overall during the period 1900 - 2000.
While base
rates kept at or close to zero for almost seven years and three massive asset - buying programs by the Fed have undoubtedly helped stabilize the US (and
world) economy during and after the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the continuation of expansionary monetary policies is now supporting a growing excess of global liquidity that has been distorting the market signals sent by stock and
bond prices and thus contributing to the growing volatility seen in recent weeks.
In the summer, with the
world awash in negative interest
rates, The Wall Street Journal reported that this «new abnormal» was «here to stay» and (as yours truly wrote) that «you will have to lower your expectations» for
bond income.
Here's an interesting Bloomberg piece on what
bond guru Bill Gross is calling «financial repression», but what you can just call «low interest
rates» The big story is that the
world is still crawling out of a near - depression, and there is not a central banker in the developed
world who would dare dream of pushing interest
rates to anything above a number you could count out on the fingers of one hand (and seriously, in most countries you could leave out the thumb and index finger as well).
The earnings yield (earnings per share divided by the share price, or the inverse of the price - to - earnings ratio) still looks attractive versus real (after inflation)
bond yields, meaning stocks may be cheaper than they look in a low -
rate world.
This is designed to offer investors the best of both
worlds: The diversification benefit of a traditional
bond mutual fund and the declining interest
rate risk sensitivity of an individual
bond.
Indeed,
world currency markets have roared back to life lately after years of hibernation, with a handful of monetary policy surprises — including the European Central Bank (ECB)'s bigger - than - expected
bond buying program and the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s delay in raising
rates — leading to rising volatility, as the chart below shows.
For example, in a
world where short - term interest
rates are zero, Wall Street acts as if a 2 % dividend yield on equities, or a 5 % junk
bond yield is enough to make these securities appropriate even for investors with short horizons, not factoring in any compensation for risk or likely capital losses.
This is why long term
bond markets are telling us that real interest
rates are expected to be close to zero in the industrialised
world over the next decade.
By itself, this below - average spread might normally be taken to imply slightly tighter - than - average conditions, although a more likely interpretation is that
bond yields have been held down by offshore
bond - market developments reflecting expectations that short - term interest
rates around the
world will remain below average for some time.
Among the explanations that have been put forward are the increased credibility of central banks in controlling inflation (inflation
rates remain below 3 per cent across the developed
world), the low level of official interest
rates in the major economies reflecting low inflation and the continuing weakness in some economies, a glut of savings on
world markets particularly sourced from the Asian region, and changes to pension fund rules in some countries which are seen as biasing investments away from equities towards
bonds.
Likewise, investors have turned to real estate investments in the hunt for
rate of return that had vanished from the
world of
bonds.
I think that means European
bonds are potentially positioned to perform well — especially relative to other
bond markets in the
world — because the ECB is very much on a heavy easing cycle, compared with other countries where there is talk that
rates eventually will rise (namely the United States).
Using global industrial production growth as specified, annual total returns for 30 country, two regional and
world stock indexes, currency spot and one - year forward exchange
rates relative to the U.S. dollar, spot prices on 19 commodities, total annual returns for a global government
bond index and a U.S. corporate
bond index, and country inflation
rates as available during 1970 through 2013, they find that: Keep Reading
Even in a
world where short - term interest
rates will continue to rise as the Federal Reserve raises policy interest
rates (most likely 2 — 3 times next year) and where long - term
rates should rise slowly as the Fed lets its balance sheet shrink, tax - free yields should either stay the same or move down as the municipal
bond world confronts a market with much less issuance.
The Legacy of a Whitetail Deer Hunter (2018, not
rated), a comedy about a father - son
bonding weekend starring Josh Brolin and Danny McBride, comes direct to Netflix from its
world premiere at SXSW.
But a strong counterpoint to this equity performance continues to be the narrow spread between short and long
rates in the major
bond markets around the
world.
A darling asset class of this bull market has been U.S. high yield debt, as many searching for income in a low -
rate world have turned to these higher - yielding
bonds.
In a
world where finding yield is a challenge, even a looming
rate hike isn't enough to get investors particularly excited about their
bond portfolios.
Thanks to lackluster global growth, and rock - bottom interest
rates in the United States — and even negative
rates in other parts of the
world — investors face the choice of either accepting lower income or increasing risk in their
bond portfolios in the search for yield.
Monti was the first adult to lead Italy since
World War II, and he has almost singlehandedly calmed the
bond markets into financing Italy's gargantuan debts at a reasonable
rate.
Bond markets are not excluded from this equation and emerging market fixed income markets are yielding much higher
rates than those available in the developed
world.
One is the ultra-low level of interest
rates on GICs,
bonds and other cash - equivalent investments, a phenomenon dubbed «financial repression» and perpetrated by central banks around the
world.
But remember, we live in a global
world and interest
rates remain low in most large developed
bond markets including Japan, Germany and the UK.
With investment grade
rates barely keeping pace with inflation, investors started «chasing yield» wherever it might be found... high yield
bonds, emerging market debt,
world bond funds, bank loan funds, «non-traditional» and «multi-sector»
bonds funds, et cetera.
This bizarro
world is not far off; Switzerland, for example, had negative interest
rates on 10 - year
bonds for most of 2015.
But because worries about global economic growth, inflation and the threat of central bank
rate hikes are one catalyst for the climb of
bond yields, some analysts worry that the move higher may prove sustained and inflict damage to the
world's biggest economy.
From a recent interview with Bill Gross, manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained
Bond fund: Years of easing by central banks mean that interest
rates in most of the developed
world will fluctuate narrowly.
The drawback, however, is that because U.S. government
bonds are regarded as the
world's safest fixed - income investments, the interest
rates they pay investors are lower than those of corporate
bonds.
Class A shares with sales charges performance reflects the maximum 5.5 % sales charge, with the following exceptions: Class A shares of Hartford Emerging Markets Local Debt, Hartford High Yield, Hartford Inflation Plus, Hartford Municipal Opportunities, Hartford Municipal Real Return, Hartford Strategic Income, Hartford Total Return
Bond, Hartford
World Bond, Hartford Schroders Emerging Markets Debt and Currency, Hartford Schroders Tax - Aware
Bond, Hartford Schroders Emerging Markets Multi-Sector
Bond and Hartford Schroders Global Strategic
Bond reflect a maximum 4.5 % sales charge; Class A shares of Hartford Floating
Rate and Hartford Floating
Rate High Income reflect a maximum 3.0 % sales charge; Class A shares of Hartford Short Duration reflect a maximum 2.0 % sales charge.
So, if the market sentiment decides it doesn't like a few factors, such as a decision to follow a divergent monetary policy, continued slow global economic growth, a
world - wide aging population, and the swearing in of Donald Trump as the next American President, we could be see a rise in
bond rates, which will absolutely start to increase fixed -
rate mortgage
rates.
While investors will have to find stocks with higher yields, pay more for them and take on more risk in
bonds, the biggest change in a permanently low -
rate world is that people will need to set aside more of every paycheque if they want to keep the same goal for retirement income.
Relative strength for utilities and REITs in the stock
world, as well as relative strength for investment grade debt in the
bond universe, suggest that the Fed will barely bump overnight lending
rates, if at all.