Climate change amplifies existing risks to our natural resources, and many species will struggle to keep up with
the rate of ecosystem change without continually evolving habitat conservation.
Many species will struggle to keep up with
the rate of ecosystem change without continually evolving habitat conservation.
Not exact matches
Other possible explanations for the decline, which is being caused by a low survival
rate of seal pups, include a
change to the food supply owing to warming waters; competition for food from large fish called jacks; or the possibility that the reserve is simply too new for its
ecosystem to have settled down.
Diffenbaugh and Field review the physical conditions that are likely to shape the impacts
of climate
change on terrestrial
ecosystems, showing that they will face
rates of change unprecedented in the past 65 million years.
Michael McElroy concluded, «If we choose to take on this challenge, it appears that we can slow the
rate of change substantially, giving us time to develop mechanisms so that the cost to society and the damage to
ecosystems can be minimized.
Given the current dramatic
rate of change in the ocean nitrogen cycle the researchers are not sure how long it will take for marine
ecosystems to adapt.
«Tropical
ecosystems suffered widespread devastation each time that greenhouse gases rose rapidly in the past, despite differences in the
rates of change and species involved.
In applying them, they found that a more realistic representation
of the marine
ecosystem helped the ocean to take up and store carbon at similar
rates regardless
of global
changes in physical properties, like temperature, salinity and circulation.
In a paper published in Science Advances, he proposes that mass extinction occurs if one
of two thresholds are crossed: For
changes in the carbon cycle that occur over long timescales, extinctions will follow if those
changes occur at
rates faster than global
ecosystems can adapt.
The coastal
ecosystems of mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes mitigate climate
change by sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and oceans at significantly higher
rates, per unit area, than terrestrial forests (Figure 1).
An extremely fast
rate of climate
change puts more pressure on an
ecosystem than a slower one, a short search will find that general conclusion.
[ANDY REVKIN says: I was at the first Conference on the
Changing Atmosphere in Toronto in 1988, but mainly recall the worried look on the representative from the Maldives, and the statement by Michael McElroy
of Harvard, quoted in my 1988 Discover Magazine article on the greenhouse effect: «If we choose to take on this challenge, it appears that we can slow the
rate of change substantially, giving us time to develop mechanisms so that the cost to society and the damage to
ecosystems can be minimized.
Between the poles
of real - time catastrophe and nonevent lies the prevailing scientific view: Without big
changes in emissions
rates, global warming from the buildup
of greenhouse gases is likely to lead to substantial, and largely irreversible, transformations
of climate,
ecosystems and coastlines later this century.
Michael McElroy concluded, «If we choose to take on this challenge, it appears that we can slow the
rate of change substantially, giving us time to develop mechanisms so that the cost to society and the damage to
ecosystems can be minimized.
For policy - makers, the speed
of climate
change over the coming decades matters as much as the total long - term
change, since this
rate of change will determine whether human societies and natural
ecosystems will be able to adapt fast enough to survive.New results indicate a warming
rate of about 2.5 C per century over the coming decades (assuming no attempt is made to reduce GHG emissions).
We also have acceptable estimates
of sequestration
rates by average forest
ecosystems based on an extensive literature review, on Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change reports (approximately1 metric ton carbon per ha per year [12]-RRB-.
Climate scientists Michael Oppenheimer and Kevin Trenberth also took issue with Koonin's assertion about the impact
of human activity, saying, Warming is well beyond natural climate variability and projected
rates of change are potentially faster than
ecosystems, farmers and societies can adapt to without major disruptions.
Dana: «Climate scientists Michael Oppenheimer and Kevin Trenberth also took issue with Koonin's assertion about the impact
of human activity, saying, Warming is well beyond natural climate variability and projected
rates of change are potentially faster than
ecosystems, farmers and societies can adapt to without major disruptions.
From an OSU press release: CORVALLIS, Ore. — An analysis
of 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada found that the impact
of warmer air temperatures on streamflow
rates was less than expected in many locations, suggesting that some
ecosystems may be resilient to certain aspects
of climate
change.
-- The impact
of an excessive
rate of temperature
change on
ecosystems and agriculture.
It is known, however, that the resilience
of marine
ecosystems to adjust to climate
change impacts is likely to be reduced by both the range
of factors and their
rate of change.
However, reducing the impact
of these non-climate factors may reduce the overall
rate of change within ocean
ecosystems.
A significant component
of this key
ecosystem characteristic is dependent on relatively slow processes such as
rates of recuitment, mortality, and
changes in vegetation composition.
The fossil record indicates that the past 100 years has seen species extinctions at 100 — 1,000 times the background
rate (Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment 2005), and among five drivers
of global biodiversity loss between now and 2100 (climate
change, land use
change, atmospheric CO2 increases, nitrogen deposition, and species introductions), land use
change — not climate
change — is predicted to be the most important (Sala et al. 2000).
While only a few recent species extinctions have been attributed to climate
change, natural global climate
change at
rates slower than current anthropogenic climate
change caused significant
ecosystem shifts and species extinctions in the past millions
of years.
And the concern is that the
rate of change we're seeing in temperature is much too fast for these
ecosystems to adapt.»
A proportional approach to downscaling the SRES land - cover scenarios has been applied to global
ecosystem modelling (Arnell et al., 2004) by assuming uniform
rates of change everywhere within an SRES macro-region.
Dryland
ecosystems comprise a substantial proportion
of total land cover and constitute a significant component
of global biogeochemical cycles1, 6, yet owing to strong limitations by water and nutrients7, 8, undisturbed drylands are typically thought to maintain relatively low annual
rates of ecosystem processes — such as plant photosynthesis5 (but see refs 9, 10)-- and to harbour biological communities that
change composition on relatively slow timescales11.
However, the understanding
of the effects on marine
ecosystems is too limited to be able to draw any conclusions about the magnitude and
rate of changes to come.
It is increasingly clear that this rich
ecosystem affects the melt
rates of polar ice and snow and could be accelerating climate
change.
At best,
changes of such magnitude would trigger dramatic re-organization
of ecosystems across the globe that would play out over the next few centuries; at worst, extinction
rates would elevate considerably for the many species adapted to pre-global warming conditions, via mechanisms described above (inability to disperse or evolve fast enough to keep pace with the extremely rapid
rate of climate
change, and disruption
of ecological interactions within communities as species respond individualistically).
The positive effects
of climate
change — such as longer growing seasons, lower natural winter mortality, and faster growth
rates in higher latitudes — may be offset by negative factors such as
changes in established reproductive patterns, migration routes, and
ecosystem relationships.
(Top) Fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions by category (Bottom) Fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions from net land use
change (mainly deforestation), the atmospheric CO2 growth
rate, the ocean CO2 sink and the residual land sink which represents the sink
of anthropogenic CO2 in natural land
ecosystems.
Coastal
ecosystems may show acidification or basification, depending on the balance between the invasion
of coastal waters by anthropogenic CO2, watershed export
of alkalinity, organic matter and CO2, and
changes in the balance between primary production, respiration and calcification
rates in response to
changes in nutrient inputs and losses
of ecosystem components.
«We congratulate the Interior Department on taking these two important steps toward protection
of the Arctic Ocean from the threats
of drilling in this fragile
ecosystem which is experiencing the effects
of climate
change at a faster
rate than anywhere else on earth,» Earthjustice attorney Erik Grafe said in a statement.
For the ice sheets the answer is probably no (but experts on the subject might have a better idea), but for the overturning circulation or the
ecosystem changes, the answer is probably yes — i.e. a slower
rate of warming could lead to a different response (allowing time for ocean mixing to mitigate the effects, or adaptation
of species to the new conditions).
In the Arctic, the
rate of climate
change is now faster than
ecosystems can adapt to naturally, and the fate
of many Arctic marine
ecosystems is clearly connected to that
of the sea ice (Duarte, Lenton et al., 2012).
Although historical records indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and sea surface temperatures have undergone significant oscillations and have exceeded present - day levels in the past [3,4], it is the unprecedented
rates of change that are fuelling concerns over whether organisms will retain the capacity to mediate vital
ecosystem functions and services [5,6].
* At higher projected
rates of warming, areas such as the tundra and the Amazon rainforest face a high risk
of «abrupt and irreversible»
changes in their
ecosystems.