We should certainly not be contemplating increases in
the rate of exports and building infrastructure in order to facilitate that increase (a barrow which the Murdoch media never loses an opportunity to push these days).
We should certainly not be contemplating increases in
the rate of exports and building infrastructure in order to facilitate that increase.
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability
of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost
of accommodating, announced increases in the build
rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build
rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect
of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result
of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange
rates; 9) the success and timely execution
of key milestones such as the receipt
of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation
of our announced acquisition
of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability
of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk
of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production
of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts
of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak
of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact
of future discount
rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition
of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect
of governmental laws, such as U.S.
export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect
of changes in tax law, such as the effect
of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations
of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect
of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit
ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability
of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass
of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many
of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment
of interest on, and principal
of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest
rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness
of any interest
rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness
of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact
of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition
of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result
of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks
of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange
rates, impositions
of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
The drop in
exports will be a concern, but probably not enough to prompt an interest -
rate cut ahead
of Finance Minister Bill Morneau's first budget on March 22.
The low cost
of capital, over the same period, did not help business investments either; they increased at an average annual
rate of 0.8 percent because the poor sales outlook at home did not require large expansions
of production capacities, and
exports were increasingly sourced from overseas factory outlets.
Raising
rates while the Federal Reserve in the U.S. keeps printing money will send the Canadian dollar higher, increasing the price
of exports and hurting the profitability
of manufacturers.
Some trade analysts suggest that increasing
exports to 15 percent
of gross domestic product from its current 13 percent
rate could add $ 300 billion in new GDP annually.
«The growth
rate (
of non-energy
exports) persistently was less than what we thought should happen and it's gradually building up to something that we have to acknowledge, and we have to say, «Either it comes back someday after firm creation kicks in more strongly» or something,» Poloz said.
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations in commodity prices, interest
rates and foreign currency exchange
rates, levels
of end market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments
of the aerospace industry, levels
of air travel, financial condition
of commercial airlines, the impact
of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition
of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization
of the anticipated benefits
of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing
of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition
of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration
of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization
of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels
of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability
of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope
of future repurchases
of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level
of other investing activities and uses
of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition
of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery
of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits
of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits
of diversification and balance
of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome
of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact
of the negotiation
of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect
of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect
of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions, global trade policies and currency exchange
rates in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect
of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import /
export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition
of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits
of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing
of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence
of events that may give rise to a right
of one or both
of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee
of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million
of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects
of the announcement or the completion
of the merger on the market price
of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation
of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the value
of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
Only 23 %
of the respondents believe the Bank
of Canada will ensure our inflation
rate matches the U.S.
rate to prevent our
exports from being priced out
of the American market.
The sheer volume
of resources
exports is driving the nation towards a trade surplus, and a higher exchange
rate.
The Bank
of Canada now is counting on exchange -
rate - sensitive
exports to offset the damage.
Factors that will have an impact on credit quality
of companies include domestic consumption trends,
exports, commodity price risks, sensitivity to changes in interest
rates, working capital risk, capital expenditure and sensitivity to foreign exchange volatility.
Of course, rock - bottom rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
Of course, rock - bottom
rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by
exports and business investment.
That's symbolic
of the fact that there are more countries competing for market share, even as global
exports of good and services are growing at meagre
rate of about 3 %.
The CCPA report also pointed out that 41 per cent
of Canadian
exports enjoy MFN
rates of zero.
We think the backlash from a long - standing if not permanent unemployment
rate of 8 percent or higher will be a new isolationism, patriotism and disapproval
of companies
exporting jobs and importing goods.
Newly imposed tariffs or a downright elimination
of NAFTA could curtail Canadian GDP growth in terms
of exports and delay the BoC's
rate hike process.
Meanwhile, with a series
of supportive economic factors at play «we expect the country's real estate market to continue the strong showing it posted in the second half
of 2013,» Soper said, noting among other things favourable interest
rates and an improving U.S. economy fuelling demand for Canadian
exports.
In the budget there are bold vows — oddly reminiscent
of China's annual edicts for economic growth
rates — about boosting
exports by 30 % in the next eight years (even though
exports have climbed just 2.9 % from eight year ago).
Poloz says the only
rate he cares about is inflation, and virtually every piece
of official communication from the central bank notes the boost that non-energy
exports are getting from the weaker exchange
rate.
Like Japan in the 1980s, China's
export - driven economic success and high savings
rate needs a relief valve if it is to avoid rapid appreciation
of its currency, the renminbi, the exchange
rate of which is carefully managed.
Under existing VOS program designs, solar customers continue to purchase all
of their electricity from the grid at the utility's retail
rate and receive credit for the solar electricity
exported to the grid at the approved VOS
rate.
If instead it is financed with imports
of foreign capital, it drives up the exchange
rate, which drives down
exports.
For years, the world has watched as China posted economic growth
rates three times as fast as the United States, built on the back
of government - directed capital investment and massive
exports to the wealthy world.
The central bank, which kept its
rate at 1.25 per cent Wednesday, said slower first - quarter growth
of about 1.3 per cent was largely a result
of housing markets» responses to stricter mortgage rules and sluggish
exports.
Just this month, in December 2013, the company finally — after years
of submissions and applications — received confirmation that it qualified to be put on a «separate
rate» list
of preferred companies granted lower
export duties to the U.S. market.
It raised the penalty for
exporting lumber to the U.S. from a combined
rate of 10.8 per cent to 15 per cent; it also hit Canada with the so - called «surge mechanism,» designed to discourage investment in Canadian sawmills.
The US
export sector is getting the benefit
of a lower dollar; there's a significant fiscal package in the pipeline, which will add more than 1 per cent
of GDP to private spending power; and sharp cuts have been made in US official interest
rates, with financial markets expecting more to come.
In spite
of these factors, volumes
of new
export business increased only marginally in October, and the
rate of expansion was subdued in comparison to the average since the survey began in late - 2010.
New measures
of external demand for Canadian
exports have been constructed, which better take into account how Canadian industries are positioned in GVCs.15 Our staff have also constructed new measures
of Canada's effective exchange
rate that better capture Canada's competitiveness, not just relative to our
export markets but also relative to third countries (Chart 5).16 This analysis contributes to a better diagnosis
of Canada's loss
of competitiveness.
The terms
of trade is influenced by the exchange
rate because a rise in the value
of a country's currency lowers the domestic prices for its imports but does not directly affect the commodities it produces (i.e. its
exports).
At the same time, the current level
of the exchange
rate represents a big shift in relative prices, which should provide substantial ongoing assistance for the
export sector (and the import - competing sector).
The RBA study pays special attention to the exchange
rate appreciation, noting that the stronger Australian dollar had the effect
of moderating the effects
of resource price increases: higher exchange
rates make all
exports — including resource
exports — less competitive on world markets.
The loonie's rally is «exacerbating ongoing competitiveness challenges and muting the outlook for
exports,» the Bank
of Canada said Wednesday as it kept its key interest
rate unchanged at 0.5 percent.
He suggested this might add to inflation risks; accelerate the need for interest -
rate hikes; strain mortgages; and ultimately widen the import -
export trade deficit, which is the source
of trade tensions.
To put it more explicitly, when investment is constrained by a lack
of savings, the best way to generate growth is to increase investment by forcing up the domestic savings
rate, in which case the world's growth engine is likely to be the country that
exports capital to investment - hungry parts
of the world.
It would force up European exchange
rates, imposing an economic cost that European industry would have to absorb as the dollar price its
exports were forced up to uncompetitive levels, through no fault
of Europe's own domestic policies.
The PBO identified four key downside risks to the private sector forecast: global growth, especially in the U.S. could be slower than anticipated; the appreciation
of the Canadian dollar could adversely affect
exports; sovereign debt issues in Europe could restrain recovery there and put upward pressure on global interest
rates; and the high level
of household debt in Canada could restrain domestic demand.
The Swiss Syndrome may be defined as a condition in which an autonomous capital inflow forces up a country's exchange
rate to a point that threatens the competitiveness
of its
exports.
Changes in global demand for Canadian assets are no less genuine causes
of exchange -
rate fluctuations than changes in global demand for Canadian
exported goods and services.
Foreign central banks must choose between passively letting these inflows push up their exchange
rates — thereby pricing their
exports out
of global markets — or recycling these inflows into U.S. Treasury bills yielding only 1 % and whose exchange value is declining.
Even though I know nothing about the iron ore market, and certainly not as much as the CEO
of Fortescue, I know arithmetic, and even before I heard Minack's discussion
of the global increase in production, I simply could not get the arithmetic that connected Chinese interest
rates with Australian iron ore
exports to work otherwise.
I have used a fall in
exports to show how constrained Beijing's policy choices are, but I could just have easily done the same using as an example any change in the currency regime, the reform
of the hukou system, the de-industrialization
of the bankrupt northeast provinces, the development
of the OBOR and Silk Road projects, changes in interest
rates or minimum reserves, protecting the stock market from crashing, the provincial bond swaps, changes in the tax regime, improving energy and environmental policies, and so on.
Rebuilding
exports by devaluing the RMB, by forcing down wages, by reducing interest
rates, or by any other subsidy
of production costs effectively reverse the rebalancing process, and it is precisely because
of the deep imbalances that Beijing is in the position
of being forced to choose among the three outcomes.
A number
of manufacturers noted that exchange
rate depreciation and improving U.S. economic conditions had supported new
export order volumes in June.
To ensure sustainable growth, it needs to reduce the dependence on
exports and fixed asset investment and to increase domestic consumption — but the
rate of consumption growth remains weak.
Debt - financed tax cuts may well push up interest
rates in the U.S., which attracts more foreign investment, which raises the value
of the dollar, which makes
exports less competitive and imports cheaper, which increases the trade deficit.
And that non-resource
export growth is much more a function
of U.S. demand than it is the level
of the currency to begin with, so I'm doubtful there's a huge incremental positive boost related to the terms
of trade and concurrent exchange
rate decline.
Mr. Laurier's record
of governance includes liberalizing immigration policy to populate the country particularly in the new western provinces, supporting the construction
of transportation infrastructure to bolster economic development and
export growth, steadily reducing tariff
rates to provide Canada with a tax advantage relative to the United States, and pursuing free trade and market access for Canadian goods and services.