Not exact matches
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA sea
surface temperature datasets, finding that the
rate of global
warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen years
of the 21st century.
For global observations
since the late 1950s, the most recent versions
of all available data sets show that the troposphere has
warmed at a slightly greater
rate than the
surface, while the stratosphere has cooled markedly
since 1979.
It gives a
rate of warming of some 0.07 degrees C / decade and a total rise in
surface temperature
of some 0.4 degrees C
since 1944.
Since OHC uptake efficiency associated with
surface warming is low compared with the
rate of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain
of ocean heat; thus the observation
of OHC increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.
We've been adding carbon dioxide from fossil fuels to the atmosphere at increasing
rates since the dawn
of the Industrial Era, and the result has been a steady
warming of the planet's
surface.
Global
warming does not mean no winter, it means winter start later, summer hotter, as Gary Peters said «The global average
surface temperature has risen between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C
since the start
of the twentieth century, and the
rate of increase
since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.»
The problem here is that estimates
of changes in sea
surface temperature and the depth
of the
warm mixed layer might be very unreliable,
since the general behavior
of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most recent findings are that flow
rates vary over a whole order
of magnitude:
They conclude that while the
rate of increase
of average global
surface temperatures has slowed
since 1998, melting
of Arctic ice, rising sea levels, and
warming oceans have continued apace.
But if you take a look just at
surface - atmospheric
warming by itself, you do see a bit
of a tapering off in the *
rate *
of warming since ~ 2000.
Since the average lapse
rate is -7 K per km, and the typically radiative
surface in the atmosphere is at about 5 km, the
surface temperature will be 5 x 7 = 35 K
warmer than it would be in the absence
of GHGs.
Since the increase in the
rate of heat sequestration (and the concomitant reduction in the
rate of surface warming) likely is mainly a result
of cyclical internal variability, when the cycles will switch to the opposite phase, the
surface warming will resume even faster.
The oceans have
warmed with «virtual certainty,» the report concludes, at a
rate of about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.11 Celsius) per decade
since 1970 in the upper 246 feet (75 meters)
of surface water.
Since the
surface is not the climate system as a whole, only a small part
of it, inter-decadal variability in the
rate of surface warming can not be used as the basis for strong claims about climate sensitivity.
Five - year averaging reduces differences among temperature datasets, showing that
since the mid-1970s the global
surface air temperature has on average increased by 0.1 °C every five to six years, although the
rate of warming, viewed from a five - year perspective, has not been steady.
Since the ocean
surface warms overall at about only half the
rate of the land
surface (due to the larger thermal inertia), it is to be expected that the lower troposphere wouldn't
warm as fast as the global
surface average.
The historical trend
since 1979 is heavily influenced by the recent slowdown in the
rate of surface warming which is likely to be the result
of natural variability overprinting the forced trend.