Surface temperatures over land regions have warmed at a faster
rate than over the oceans in both hemispheres.
Not exact matches
Durack and his colleagues at LLNL found that the Southern Hemisphere's
oceans have warmed at a higher
rate over the past 35 years
than previously thought.
However, for the globe as a whole, surface air temperatures
over land have risen at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more
than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern Hemisphere.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global SAT trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the SAT
over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher
rate than the SST.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air temperature
over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher
rate than the
ocean temperature.
Either the glaciers would have to flow into the
ocean at unrealistic
rates, or rapid melting would have to be triggered
over a much larger area of the ice sheet
than current evidence suggests.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air temperature
over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher
rate than the
ocean temperature.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global SAT trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the SAT
over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher
rate than the SST.
I agree that the multimillennial «tail» of the CO2 decay trajectory is relatively unimportant in its own right, but it is not trivial, because it affects the overall
rate of decay that includes processes that occur
over many decades or a few centuries involving CO2 mixing into the deep
ocean and carbonate buffering, and makes them slower
than they would be otherwise.
Since the source of anthropogenic global warming is ostensibly increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, it makes no sense to posit that
over time the
oceans will warm at a faster
rate than the atmosphere above them.
Longer records now available show significantly faster
rates of warming
over land
than ocean in the past two decades (about 0.27 °C vs. 0.13 °C per decade).
Qin Dahe, also co-chair of the working group, said: «As the
ocean warm, and glaciers and ice sheets reduce, global mean sea level will continue to rise, but at a faster
rate than we have experienced
over the past 40 years.»
My opinion expressed elsewhere is that almost all the temperature changes we observe
over periods of less
than a century are caused by cyclical changes in the
rate of energy emission from the
oceans with the solar effect only providing a slow background trend of warming or cooling for several centuries at a time.
A question for those with more knowledge
than me in the matter: does rainfall
over the
oceans increase the
rate of sea - level rise?
The extra heat in the
ocean has caused the sea level to rise 15 mm since November 2014, much faster
than the
rate of 3 - 3.5 mm per year
over recent decades.
Unfortunately, current
rates of
ocean rise are far slower
than what human - caused climate change may set off
over the coming decades.
The IPCC's predicted
rate of increase in
ocean heat content
over the past decade or two has proven to be four and a half times greater
than the observed
rate of increase.
The CO2 doubling response from CM2.6,
over 70 - 80 years, shows that upper -
ocean (0 - 300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a
rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster
than the global average.
Seawater data collected by a Hydrolab DataSonde (Hach Company, Loveland, CO) since 2000 show that the
ocean at this site has undergone a sustained decline in pH
over the past decade [2] at a
rate that is an order of magnitude greater
than expected based on model predictions [13] and the equilibrium response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.
This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat flux into the
oceans over 5 decades, the sea - level change
rate based on tide gauge records
over the 20th century, and the sea - surface temperature variations... We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger
than just those associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, although without pointing to which one.
Either the glaciers would have to flow into the
ocean at unrealistic
rates, or rapid melting would have to be triggered
over a much larger area of the ice sheet
than current evidence suggests.
In addition to this rapid surface warming, the global
oceans have also been accumulating heat at an incredible
rate - the equivalent of more
than two Hiroshima «Little Boy» atomic bomb detonations per second, every second
over a the past half century.
What are telling observations against the hypothesis of a largely internally driven imbalance are, on the one hand, the fact the sea level variations are relentlessly positive, irrespective the phase of the PDO, and, on the second hand, the fact that the
rate of warming
over land is larger
than it is
over sea (and also that the shallow (0 - 700m)
ocean layer never actually cools).
If the
rate of sea level rise
over the last 20 years is as high or higher
than it ever has been
over the last 114 year (and is twice the 20th century average), then does this not strongly suggest that there has been no recent slowdown at all in the
rate of accumulation of heat by the
oceans and cryosphere?