Such
rates of sea level change have occurred many times in Earth's history in response to global warming rates no higher than those of the past 30 years.
«Having a detailed picture of
rates of sea level change over the past two millennia provides an important context for understanding current and potential future changes,» says Paul Cutler, program director in NSF's Division of Earth Sciences.
Extending the sea level record back over the entire century suggests that the high variability in
the rates of sea level change observed over the past 20 years were not particularly unusual.
34, L01602, doi: 10.1029 / 2006GL028492, 2007 On the decadal
rates of sea level change during the twentieth century S. J. Holgate Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, UK
«On the decadal
rates of sea level change during the twentieth century» GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.
Substantial spatial variation in
rates of sea level change is also inferred from hydrographic observations.
I focused on Fig 2 of Rahmstorf 2012, which shows
the rate of sea level change in the form of 10 yr decadal trends.
The link between global temperature and
rate of sea level change provides a brilliant opportunity for cross-validation of these two parameters over the last several millenia (one might add - in the relationship between atmospheric [CO2] and Earth temperature in the period before any significant human impact on [CO2]-RRB-.
The rate of sea level change is strongly accelerating, in the negative direction.
The grey shading shows the uncertainty in the estimated long - term
rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3).
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL028492/abstract
The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 mm / yr 1904 — 1953) in comparison with the latter part (1.45 mm / yr 1954 — 2003).
In contrast, the estimate of Vörösmarty and Sahagian (2000) for
the rate of sea level change from terrestrial storage is 0.06 mm / yr, equivalent to 5.4 mm over 80 years.
«
The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm / yr 1904 — 1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm / yr 1954 — 2003).»
Hansen and Sato (7) argue that the climate of the most recent few decades is probably warmer than prior Holocene levels, based on the fact that the major ice sheets in both hemispheres are presently losing mass rapidly (9) and global sea level is rising at a rate of more than 3 m / millennium (25), which is much greater than the slow
rate of sea level change (less than 1 m / millennium) in the latter half of the Holocene (26).
Since the current
rate of sea level change is about 2 milifathoms a year, charts calibrated in fathoms fall about three orders of magnitude short of persuasive.
... Averaged over the global ocean surface, the mean
rate of sea level change due to GIA is independently estimated from models at -0.3 mm / yr (Peltier, 2001, 2002, 2009; Peltier & Luthcke, 2009).
Not exact matches
The latest report from the International Panel on Climate
Change, an intergovernmental group charged with researching the effects of carbon emissions, said at the end of September that climate change is unequivocal and that going forward, sea levels will rise at a faster rate than they have over the past 40
Change, an intergovernmental group charged with researching the effects
of carbon emissions, said at the end
of September that climate
change is unequivocal and that going forward, sea levels will rise at a faster rate than they have over the past 40
change is unequivocal and that going forward,
sea levels will rise at a faster
rate than they have over the past 40 years.
Published this week in Nature Climate
Change, the initial study finds that embankments constructed since the 1960s are primarily to blame for lower land elevations along the Ganges - Brahmaputra River Delta, with some areas experiencing more than twice the
rate of the most worrisome
sea -
level rise projections from the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
So I think it's very realistic, if we want to look at the adjustment to that big disequilibrium then that we have generated, to look at those sort
of rates of change that we will eventually achieve; and maybe not this century, we'll be working our way up to that, but certainly in the next century, we need to think about that as the
rate of sea -
level rise.
Mapping historical shoreline
change provides useful data for assessing exposure to future erosion hazards, even if the
rate of sea level rise
changes in the future.
«When we modeled future shoreline
change with the increased
rates of sea level rise (SLR) projected under the IPCC's «business as usual» scenario, we found that increased SLR causes an average 16 - 20 feet
of additional shoreline retreat by 2050, and an average
of nearly 60 feet
of additional retreat by 2100,» said Tiffany Anderson, lead author and post-doctoral researcher at the UH Mānoa School
of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.
It's difficult to project the
rate of sea -
level rise 90 years in the future, though its assumptions are in line with the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
The long - term average
rate of sea -
level rise in Hampton Roads is about one foot per century, but that pace has accelerated sharply recently, which makes it challenging to gauge future
rates of change.
Scientists have long known that small
changes in Earth's water cycle could lead to large, although temporary,
changes in the
rate of sea level rise.
A new study by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, and the University
of California, Irvine, shows that while ice sheets and glaciers continue to melt,
changes in weather and climate over the past decade have caused Earth's continents to soak up and store an extra 3.2 trillion tons
of water in soils, lakes and underground aquifers, temporarily slowing the
rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent.
As new
sea routes open and
sea -
level rises at increasing
rates, it becomes ever clearer that amplified climate
change in this remote corner
of our planet will impact the lives
of many around the world.
The reasons why the projected
sea -
level rise at Copenhagen is more severe than at Oslo are complicated, but are primarily related to the effects that we have discussed: Differing
rates of crustal rebound and local gravitational
changes at the two cities.
Several previous analyses
of tide gauge records1, 2,3,4,5,6 — employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness
of the data and to constrain the geometry
of long - term
sea -
level change — have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean
rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year.
My report identified that the IPCC report was greatly underestimating the
rates of change of sea level rise, Greenland and Antarctic Ice melt
rates, Arctic temperature amplification
levels and completely ignored increased
levels of Arctic methane emissions.
Rates of sea -
level rise calculated from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived from summing loss
of ice mass, thermal expansion and
changes in land storage.
Given that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has a total
sea level equivalent
of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major
changes in
rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple
of hundred years.
First, the
rate of global
sea -
level change in the 20th century (1.4 ± 0.2 mm / yr) was, with 95 % probability, faster than during any century since at least 800 BCE.
The
rate of change of the theoretical mean
sea level from year to year is not constant either, due to changing rate of the global sea level rise and changes in the Baltic Sea water balan
sea level from year to year is not constant either, due to
changing rate of the global
sea level rise and changes in the Baltic Sea water balan
sea level rise and
changes in the Baltic
Sea water balan
Sea water balance.
That estimate was based in part on the fact that
sea level is now rising 3.2 mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order
of magnitude faster than the
rate during the prior several thousand years, with rapid
change of ice sheet mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating
rates [23]--[24].
Using a statistical model calibrated to the relationship between global mean temperature and
rates of GSL
change over this time period, we are assessing the human role in historic
sea -
level rise and identifying human «fingerprints» on coastal flood events.
Paleoclimate data for
sea level change indicate that
sea level changed at
rates of the order
of a meter per century [81]--[83], even at times when the forcings driving climate
change were far weaker than the human - made forcing.
These global projections are consistent with an independent set
of global projections based upon the relationship between temperature and
rate of sea -
level change over the last two millennia.
The climate is
changing, causing a dramatic rise and fall
of sea levels and violent storms at alarming
rates.
Imagine your
rate of sea -
level rise
changes over 100 years in the following way: Fig. 1.
From the comments section
of the paper he highlighted: «Firstly, it continues to indicate that in New Zealand, at least, there has been neither a significant
change in the
rate of sea level rise nor any detectable acceleration.»
Here's a quote from the conclusion: «Firstly, it continues to indicate that in New Zealand, at least, there has been neither a significant
change in the
rate of sea level rise nor any detectable acceleration.»
Regards
rates of sea level rise the IPCC graph (https://goo.gl/C9NoQR) shows multidecadal
rates of change.
We can also make a little map
of the
change in
sea level rise
rate for European stations.
If climate
changes increase the snow deposition
rate on the plateau there, the
rate of sea level rise from melting glaciers elsewhere would be reduced.
If the
rate of change continues at this pace, global mean
sea levels will rise 61 centimetres between now and 2100, they report today in the journal Proceedings
of the National Academy
of Sciences.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with
changes in the
rate of sea -
level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
McGuire conducted a study that was published in the journal Nature in 1997 that looked at the connection between the
change in the
rate of sea level rise and volcanic activity in the Mediterranean for the past 80,000 years and found that when
sea level rose quickly, more volcanic eruptions occurred, increasing by a whopping 300 percent.
Since then
sea level has continued to increase, but that event illustrates how
changes in
rates retention
of water on the land can dramatically affect
sea level rise.
The question is: how does this
rate of sea -
level rise
change over time?
What this tells us is that «climate -
change — driven acceleration» has been assumed ahead
of time, and since the raw data failed to confirm the existence
of such an acceleration («In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the
rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades
of the altimeter era.»