When those interest
rates revert to the mean, and they will, the waves of economic turmoil will lap our shores.
Not exact matches
While a 10 p / e may be attractive when interest
rates are 7 % and stocks
mean revert to 15 times earnings, maybe a 20 P / E ratio is cheap when interest
rates are 2.5 % and stocks
mean revert to 25 times earnings.
Back in 1998, when I was developing my first generation old VIX / S&P 500 models, I came up with a statistic that said that the VIX
mean -
reverted to a level of 16, and it would tend
to return at the
rate of 20 % / month, while being jolted by random disturbances pushing it
to and away from the
mean.
Profit margins may
mean -
revert eventually, but it might be a while for that
to happen, given the global pressures that are keeping wage
rates low.
This effectively
means that you can earn $ 75 in bonus cash back each quarter, after which the
rate in these categories will
revert back
to the standard 1 %
rate.
Some are taking current revenue and then assigning a
mean reverted profit margin
to come up with what earnings should be, then assigning some mid point multiple that doesn't take historically low interest
rates into consideration.
Making late payments could allow creditors
to opt of out of the debt management plan, which could
mean you'll
revert to the much higher interest
rates and fees that you were trying
to escape in the first place.
While a 10 p / e may be attractive when interest
rates are 7 % and stocks
mean revert to 15 times earnings, maybe a 20 P / E ratio is cheap when interest
rates are 2.5 % and stocks
mean revert to 25 times earnings.
None of that is going
to necessarily
mean revert other than interest
rates and wages will go up when the economy strengthens, which goes against your total market implosion scenario (so basically a repeat of 2008 except with a healthy banking system this time).
However, we do know that over the long - term, valuation levels and interest
rates have tended
to revert to the
mean and that we are far above that
mean with respect
to market valuations.
can't save if we have no home, which
means the City of Austin will
revert to a 81 % save
rate
This effectively
means that you can earn $ 75 in bonus cash back each quarter, after which the
rate in these categories will
revert back
to the standard 1 %
rate.