The Enhanced GH Effects model for adding GHGs FAILS to account for the gases
reaching equilibrium temperature per the gas law, and then refusing to accept more energy absorption.
The approximately 20 - year lag (between atmospheric CO2 concentration change and
reaching equilibrium temperature) is an emerging property (just like sensitivity) of the global climate system in the GCM models used in the paper I linked to above, if I understood it correctly.
The upper atmosphere has a small heat capacity and
reaches equilibrium temperature in considerably under a year; this feeds back on the forcing of the trosphere + surface, which are generally convectively coupled with the ocean (strongly with the upper ocean) and take a number of years to reach equilibrium.
If we take N2 and fill the volume, the N2 will
reach an equilibrium temperature based on the temperature of the box and whatever radiation is absorbed.
Coffee on a hotplate — not boiling — of course will
reach an equilibrium temperature dependent on the energy input and the temperature of the surrounding CO2.
Surely you agree that, in terms of temperature, until
they reach an equilibrium temperature, since the net energy flow is from the warmer to the cooler, the cooler object only warms and the warmer object only cools.
It then starts to increase fairly slowly, increases in rate and finally slowly
reaches the equilibrium temperature.
Example 4 is the one of interest where the first body has
reached an equilibrium temperature with the sun and then a second body with a slightly lower temperature is moved into proximity.
Re # 134 AK, as you point out, cold deep water brought to the surface will sink unless it is distributed widely enough to mix with the surface water and
reach an equilibrium temperature that will keep it near the top.
Not exact matches
The idea of climate inertia is that when you increase the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere it takes the climate system a good deal of time for all its components to fully adjust and
reach a new
equilibrium temperature.
Ice sheet retreat continues until a new
equilibrium temperature state is
reached, one determined largely by the end - point of atmospheric CO2.
Hence, when the air
temperature decreases, ice and snow fields grow, and this continues until an
equilibrium is
reached.
After warming stops, an
equilibrium will be
reached in which the frequency of water molecules entering the atmosphere from the liquid will equal the frequencey of molecules entering the liquid from the atmosphere resulting in an
equilibrium of transfer of water molecules and (if atmosphere and liquid are the same
temperature) of energy transfers.
The
temperature of the whole engine will
reach equilibrium far faster than any one part of the engine will cool down.
All else equal, if CO2 goes up, it affects that balance, and
temperature increases until a new
equilibrium is
reached (which takes a long time as the ocean is a big heat sink).
Radiation also works, of course, but the
equilibrium with the planet
temperature is
reached either way.
The standard assumption has been that, while heat is transferred rapidly into a relatively thin, well - mixed surface layer of the ocean (averaging about 70 m in depth), the transfer into the deeper waters is so slow that the atmospheric
temperature reaches effective
equilibrium with the mixed layer in a decade or so.
Ice sheet retreat continues until a new
equilibrium temperature state is
reached, one determined largely by the end - point of atmospheric CO2.
Since the energy emitted goes like T ^ 4 power, the earth thus emits less energy back into space, which is why it has to warm (until it
reaches a
temperature when the earth is again emitting as much energy back out into space as it receives from the sun and so is back in
equilibrium).
The problems with associating sensitivity with a
temperature in 2100 are twofold: first, at the time we
reach CO2 doubling, the
temperature will lag behind the
equilibrium value due to thermal inertia, especially in the ocean (thought experiment — doubling CO2 today will not cause an instant 3C jump in
temperatures, any more than turning your oven on heats it instantly to 450F), and secondly, the CO2 level we are at in 2100 depends on what we do between now and then anyway, and it may more than double, or not.
(The actual
equilibrium takes on the order of a few thousand years, the mixing time of the oceans, to
reach... But that's at constant
temperature... So if the oceans warm significantly, then we lock in a new
equilibrium, at higher atmospheric CO2 for much longer timescales.)
Given those two factors and ignoring future emissions that will drive the
temperature even higher, we are already over +2 C warming once we stop emitting short - lived coal smoke and other pollutants into the air and we give the Earth time to
reach temperature equilibrium.
With a GHG increase, say doubling of CO2, upon
reaching equilibrium there will be a surface
temperature increase by dTs, and a change in the stratospheric
temperature by an amount dTt.
Now, should the reduced concentration persist, more energy will continue to accumulate in the system until a new, higher
equilibrium temperature is
reached (the
equilibrium response).
For example, if the Earth got cold enough, the encroachment of snow and ice toward low latitudes (where they have more sunlight to reflect per unit area), depending on the meridional
temperature gradient, could become a runaway feedback — any little forcing that causes some cooling will cause an expansion of snow and ice toward lower latitudes sufficient to cause so much cooling that the process never
reaches a new
equilibrium — until the snow and ice
reach the equator from both sides, at which point there is no more area for snow and ice to expand into.
The heat source may have
reached a constant
temperature, but the Earth isn't necessarily at
equilibrium with the new warmer environment yet.
Depending on meridional heat transport, when freezing
temperatures reach deep enough towards low - latitudes, the ice - albedo feedback can become so effective that climate sensitivity becomes infinite and even negative (implying unstable
equilibrium for any «ice - line» (latitude marking the edge of ice) between the equator and some other latitude).
Actually to
reach a new, higher
equilibrium temperature, the Earth surface (including oceans) must warm and thus the radiative budget MUST be unbalanced, less radiation must be emitted in space compared to the (unchanged) incoming solar radiation.
During that process, upward LW radiation
reaching the upper atmosphere will increase (depending on albedo / solar heating feedbacks), which will change the
equilibrium temperature of the upper atmopshere again.
As long as there is an increase in the GHG induced air temp there will be an increase in convection / conduction as feedback, UNTIL they
reach equilibrium, at the original
temperature.
As such, when emissions quit rising, according to their framework, the climate system is no longer being forced, but the
temperature will continue to rise and it will still take a considerable amount of time for the system to
reach equilibrium.
When we stop raising the level of carbon dioxide, the
temperature continues to rise because it takes a while for the climate system to
reach equilibrium.
If the Earth absorbs more energy, its
temperature rises, which causes it to radiate more energy back into space (Stefan - Boltzmann law) until it
reaches equilibrium at a higher
temperature.
As things warm up, outflow rises (more longwave, more convection) until
equilibrium is
reached at a higher
temperature.
Rising ocean
temperature increases cloud cover until such time as clouds starve the ocean of solar energy until an
equilibrium is
reached.
Based on the ice core dCO2 / dT relationship, the increase in
temperature since the LIA has added not more than 6 ppmv to the atmosphere to
reach a new
equilibrium.
But these are limited in time, as a new
equilibrium (3 ppmv / °C) is
reached fast, longer periods of increased or decreased
temperature will have more influence (8 ppmv / °C), but still limited.
In your many lines — thankyou — i found the key argument how you can be convinced that the
temperature only creates variation for a very short time: YOu write: «The net result is that a new
equilibrium (at a higher CO2 level) is
reached in relative short time, between a few months (seasons) to a few years (sustained higher average
temperature level).»
In that time to
reach a new
equilibrium the amount of energy «stored» in the planet will increase, raising the
temperature of the Earth.
I would expect a
temperature rise that increased evaporation would, once
equilibrium was
reached, cause * all * the air to become more humid.
Can you show me some documentation that theres is indeed
reached equilibrium so fast after
temperature change?
You can call this nonlinearity if you like, but as I tried to argue in that post, I think it is better to regard it a linear in the
temperature field — it is just that this field changes its structure as a new
equilibrium is
reached.
In other words, regions receiving twice as much flux do not need to be twice as hot to
reach equilibrium and cold regions have a more important weight in the mean
temperature.
With regard to the diabatic process the exchange of radiation in and out
reaches thermal
equilibrium relatively quickly (leaving Earth's oceans out of the scenario for current purposes) and once the
temperature rise within the atmosphere has occurred then
equilibrium has been achieved and energy in at TOA will match energy out.
The planet
reaches an essential
equilibrium during these periods in that it
reaches a certain
temperature range for 10,000 or 20,000 years and does not continue the warming it did to rise out of the glacial period.
At the end of a climatic shift, the
temperature setup of the entire planet will have changed — so far until a new
equilibrium energy budget is
reached.
At the same
temperature, at pH - values between 7 and 9, CO2
reaches 99 % chemical
equilibrium with water and calcium carbonate in about 100 seconds (Dreybrodt et al., 1996).
Thus if we could stop today with all emissions, nature still would be a net sink, but the (average) sink rate would decrease to zero over time when the basic
equilibrium setpoint is
reached, about 290 ppmv for the current
temperature.
I will howl at you that you can't tell me the glass of water has
reached an
equilibrium with the ambient environment because the ambient
temperature is inhomogeneous and always changing.
[
Equilibrium] climate sensitivity is defined as the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), once the ocean has reached equilibrium, resulting from a doubling of the equivalent atmospheric CO2 concentration, being the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same radiative forcing as the given mixture of CO2 and other forcing
Equilibrium] climate sensitivity is defined as the increase in global mean surface
temperature (GMST), once the ocean has
reached equilibrium, resulting from a doubling of the equivalent atmospheric CO2 concentration, being the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same radiative forcing as the given mixture of CO2 and other forcing
equilibrium, resulting from a doubling of the equivalent atmospheric CO2 concentration, being the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same radiative forcing as the given mixture of CO2 and other forcing components.