These models are incorporate a wide theoretical framework from the sciences of fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, astronomy, chemistry, and so on together with
real earth observations, and computational methods.
Not exact matches
They grow up believing in an Eternal Hell of fire and brimstone, talking snakes, the Doctrine of Original Sin, animals in an ark, a Young
Earth paradigm, the notion that people lived to be hundreds of years old a few thousand years ago, patriarchs that practiced child sacrifice and committed genocides, books that are supposed words of gawd that contradict
real world
observations, deities that kill their own children (human manifestations of their own selves) for the sake of sins that they never committed, the symbolic cannibalism and vampirism of a deity... I could go on for days.
Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the
Earth will warm for a given amount of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against
real - world
observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.
Similar platforms could even observe
Earth, «enabling
real - time detailed persistent
observation,» said Craig Underwood, head of the planetary environments group at the Surrey Space Center.
It's something of an abstract concept, but with
real world implications, and the universality of such physical models, based on things like radiative balance, atmospheric composition and density, distance from the local Sun, etc., is a very strong argument in favor of general acceptance of the results of climate models and
observations on
Earth.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling
Observations of Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the
Earth's surface is undoubtedly
real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
Revisionist and / or «still consistent with
observations»: in terms of changing the assumptions, changing the amount of time necessary for a pause to be significant, changing tack to OHC, comparing
real earth to the spread of all models, etc..
As others have noted, the IPCC Team has gone absolutely feral about Salby's research and the most recent paper by Dr Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama (On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance), for one simple reason: both are based on empirical, undoctored satellite
observations, which, depending on the measure required, now extend into the past by up to 32 years, i.e. long enough to begin evaluating
real climate trends; whereas much of the Team's science in AR4 (2007) is based on primitive climate models generated from primitive and potentially unreliable land measurements and proxies, which have been «filtered» to achieve certain artificial realities (There are other more scathing descriptions of this process I won't use).
My comments can be assessed by reference to the actual
observations of the
real world since 1961 (mentioned above) which is when the
Earth embarked on one of the highest periods of solar activity in the 400 year historical record.
Planet climate model, on the other hand, looks deceivingly
real (honestly: model results most of the time look sooooo good compared to
real world
observations), always smooth, always there for you, no queues, no delays, lacking the difficulties, ugliness, incompleteness and noisiness of planet
Earth observations.
3) However, even if the actual variance in TSI during that period was less than 4 Watts per square metre the fact is that various changes in temperature trend did occur and the shape of the chart would remain so on the basis of
real world
observations we must accept that the lower the range of TSI involved then the more sensitive the
Earth is as a water based thermometer.
Spencer and Braswell freely admit that using their simple model is just the first step in a complicated diagnosis, but also point out that the results from simple models provide insight that should help guide the development of more complex models, and ultimately could help unravel some of the mystery as to why full climate models produce high estimates of the
earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity, while estimates based in
real - world
observations are much lower.
T - 5: S. Wofsy (Harvard) HIAPER Pole to Pole
Observations (HIPPO) of climatically important gases and aerosols 10:35 - 10:55 T - 6: R. Muller (UC Berkeley) The Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature Land Results 10:55 - 11:15 T - 7: R. Rohde (Berkeley Temp Project) A new estimate of the
Earth land surface temperature 11:15 - 11:35 T - 8: F. Singer (SEPP) Is the reported global surface warming of 1979 to 1997
real?