So the alarm about «certain» future SLR acceleration is completely overwhelmed by
real observational uncertainty.
Not exact matches
But since there are reasonable estimates of the
real world GMT, it is a fair enough question to ask why the models have more spread than the
observational uncertainty.
Given the scenario that came closest to the
real world, the temperatures predicted by the model are well within the
observational uncertainty.
You have to remember that the 5 year forecast is derived from a large number of individual runs each with slightly different starting conditions matching the range of the
observational uncertainty in the
real starting conditions.
Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for
observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in
real time.