Indeed, the proper interpretation of the Phillips Curve is one that relates the rate of unemployment to the rate of
real wage inflation, not general price inflation (see Will the Real Phillips Curve Please Stand Up?
Not exact matches
But decomposing
real wage growth in nominal grown and
inflation shows that the main driver has been virtually non-existent consumer price growth:
As they won
wage increases higher than the current rate of
inflation they would, for a short time, gain
real wage increases.
With
inflation currently sitting at 2.9 %, Wednesday's
wage numbers show that
real wages are actually falling in the UK for a fourth consecutive month.
Real wage growth, that is,
wage growth after accounting for
inflation, has held up surprisingly well in the recent recession and recovery.
Inflation has been boosted by the stabilization of energy prices, consecutive years of 2 % (and above) real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the continued rise of wage i
Inflation has been boosted by the stabilization of energy prices, consecutive years of 2 % (and above)
real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the continued rise of
wage inflationinflation.
The overwhelming power of business to raise prices at will means in a full employment situation where labor would otherwise be able to fairly bargain for a
real wage increase, instead, things blow up (spiraling
inflation, that 70s show).
Because nominal
wage growth for a large fraction of workers has been held to zero, a somewhat higher rate of
inflation would grease the wheels of the labor market by allowing
real wages to fall (Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry 1996).
Because nominal growth equals
real growth plus
inflation, both nominal
wage and NGDP targets implicitly account for
inflation while also focusing on indicators more likely to promote the goal of full employment.
to say aggregate nominal variables, like the
wage level, nominal gdp,
inflation, etc are determined by
real micro processes is non-sensical.
Until business learns that labor won't accept
wage increases passed on to consumers, raising
inflation, negating
real gains,
inflation must be allowed to rise.
Note the recent slowing of the aggregate
real wage measure at the end of Figure 3, largely a function of faster
inflation growth (the energy effect noted above) and some slowing of job and (blue - collar)
wage growth.
Ultimately, we see the dollar weakening against the euro as
real rates in the Euro Zone become more positive and strengthen versus the yen because
inflation in Japan is picking up due to accelerating
wage growth.
But later in the month, when the
inflation numbers for the previous month are released, we should really say something about
real, as in
inflation - adjusted,
wage growth.
Yet, the report says the median annual
wage has actually declined by six per cent in
real terms (adjusted for
inflation) since 1976 and has only increased by eight per cent overall since 1996.
France's Socialist government announced the first
real - terms increase in the minimum
wage for six years on Tuesday, but limited the rise to 0.6 percentage points above
inflation as it sought to balance election promises with fears of damaging employment.
Contained nominal
wage growth is good if you worry about
inflation picking up... but
inflation has already picked up to almost match nominal
wage growth, squeezing
real wages to nearly zero growth.
Given that the headline payroll growth has been solid, the latest round of US GDP data (for Q2) surprised to the upside, and personal consumption,
real personal consumption and personal income data also surprised to the upside (July data), PCE
inflation (fell to 1.4 % Y / Y in July, hitting the lowest since late 2015) and general
wage growth has been the missing piece of the puzzle for the Fed.
Over time, as the US Dollar continues to depreciate, it will bring higher
inflation, lower
real growth rates and a reduced standard of living for most American
wage earners.
While nominal
wage growth has been lower than normal this cycle, when adjusted for the lower
inflation we have experienced,
real wage growth hasn't been so bad.
So I don't think that they're willing at this point in time until they really see
wage inflation for whatever reason they're going to hold
real yields at neutral, zero.
And you know bonds have risen in value and
real estates gone back up to bubble levels but there hasn't been a lot of
real world
inflation and certainly no
wage inflation.
First quarter hourly compensation rose 3.4 % after a 2.4 % gain in the previous quarter, but
real hourly compensation still fell 0.1 % after a 0.8 % decline in the fourth quarter, showing
wage growth is still being outpaced by
inflation.
During the past three years, unemployment rates increased half again, average
real incomes decreased, and for seven years the minimum
wage has not been raised to match
inflation.
During the Reagan presidency, taxes were cut drastically on the very wealthy, the minimum
wage was not raised to keep up with
inflation, job - training programs and supports for the working poor were cut, and
real wages for all people decreased.
The
real issue is I see little hope that the reimbursement will continue to rise as fast as food and
wage inflation, particularly in higher cost metropolitan areas.
Speaking in support of the minimum
wage last month, Osborne said: «I believe Britain can afford an above -
inflation increase in the minimum
wage so we restore its
real value for people and we make sure we have a recovery for all and that work always pays.»
Also,
inflation is taken into account, then
real earnings (excluding bonuses) fell by 0.6 % in September, which marks the eighth consecutive month of negative
wage growth, as well as the hardest decline in
wage growth in five months.
But when you stop and think about it, persistent negative
real wage growth does mean that the BOE will be less likely to tolerate higher
inflation, which may have stopped forex traders from pushing the pound even lower.
As in Europe,
inflation is playing a role in limiting
real wage growth.
In five of the six countries where overall
wage pressures are lower,
inflation is forecast to be higher in 2017 than in 2016, which will limit
real terms
wage growth.
Mexican firms are expected to benefit from more competitive wages (lower
wage pressure) in 2017, as
inflation is forecast to erode
real wage growth.
- The minimum
wage adjusted for
inflation has nothing to do with the
real value of a dollar.