Sentences with phrase «realistic model climate»

No realistic model climate can warm up by 1.1 C without other aspects of the climate also changing.Other variables besides temperature must change.

Not exact matches

The second advance is the incorporation of more realistic representations of climate processes in the models.

«We need both, realistic model simulations and long - term data records, and really sophisticated analysis methods to produce reliable climate predictions.

Landerer and his colleagues modelled the changes that would occur if the most realistic estimates made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a doubling of carbon dioxide levels by 2100 compared with 2000 — were to become reality.

According to Yousuke Sato of the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science (AICS), «this research shows that powerful supercomputers, by performing more fine - grained simulations, can help us to model weather and climate patterns in a more realistic way.

The massive projects needed now — such as devising a model of climate change detailed enough to be truly predictive or batteries efficient enough to compete with gasoline — can not wait or depend on chancy funding, he believes.He added that a strong national commitment to goal - centered basic science could help solve other important problems by drawing America's talented young people into scientific work and providing them with better opportunities for aspiring researchers to build careers with a realistic chance of making both a significant scientific contribution and a decent living.

«The study provides more realistic modeling estimates of how much vegetation change will occur over the 21st century and will allow better predictions of future climate change,» she said.

«This work was a foundational reference case for the recently released RCP4.5 model scenario, one of four scenarios that will be used by modeling groups around the globe to make realistic projections of future climate change,» said Dr. Steven J. Smith, scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland, and lead research author.

It would be useful to carry out more detailed studies with higher resolution climate models including the most realistic possible distribution of meltwater.

These models all suggest potentially serious limitations for this kind of study: UVic does not simulate the atmospheric feedbacks that determine climate sensitivity in more realistic models, but rather fixes the atmospheric part of the climate sensitivity as a prescribed model parameter (surface albedo, however, is internally computed).

«When the model results used here were published, we did our best to make the model's simulation of the current climate as realistic as possible.

In order to get a more realistic description of the TCs in coarsely resolved climate models, one needs howeveer to «downscale «the model results.

I also explain that given any set of initial weather conditions (wintin reason) a good model will eventually reproduce realistic climate patterns.

Part of the uncertainty in the attribution is of course how realistic the «noise» in the models is — and that can be assessed by looking at hindcasts, paleo - climate etc..

I'm not claiming this is or isn't a realistic numerical model of climate response, I'm just trying to accurately describe how the model works.

A yet more stringent test for realistic climate sensitivity is the application of a model to a climate with different CO2 levels.

(Paper abstract) Climate models may underestimate heat stored in ground General circulation models (GCMs), the primary tool for estimating the magnitude of future climate change, rely on realistic inputs to generate accurate prediClimate models may underestimate heat stored in ground General circulation models (GCMs), the primary tool for estimating the magnitude of future climate change, rely on realistic inputs to generate accurate prediclimate change, rely on realistic inputs to generate accurate predictions.

Any state of the art climate model (CGCM) under stationary forcing (plus annual cycle) will eventually demonstrate some sort of chaotic behavior and / or will drift away from the realistic description of the actual atmosphere.

As a physics student very much used to operating on the «make prediction; test prediction» model of determining the reliability of a theory, I appreciate thorough discussion of realistic expectations for these climate models.

Paper:: Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

He was particularly dismissive of the various computer models for climate change, saying, «You have to remember, I come from an experience where you can use a computer to make a photo - realistic dinosaur, and I know that isn't real.»

The point here that seems to have been overlooked is that using plausible «realistic» approximations to the climate system, ClimatePrediction.net's model simulations have produced a climate sensitivity ranging from 2C to 11C.

Close agreement of observed temperature change with simulations for the most realistic climate forcing (scenario B) is accidental, given the large unforced variability in both model and real world.

Increasing the grid - resolution of an atmosphere or ocean model, or introducing more realistic representations of particular processes, generally (but not always) makes the climate which it simulates more realistic.

Model simulations of ice age climate (see discussion in Section 6.4.1) yield realistic results only if the role of CO2 is accounted for.

A realistic freshwater forcing protocol for ocean - coupled climate models, Ocean Modelling, 81, 36 - 48 (2014).

By constraining A through observations (grey bar), this example suggests that some models are more realistic (models 14 -15-17-18-22) and, by inference, provide more realistic future climate sensitivities.

But if an atmosphere and an ocean model are coupled together without any adjustment to make sure they «match», the coupled model tends to evolve towards a much less realistic climate.

Dameris, M., V. Grewe, M. Ponater, R. Deckert, V. Eyring, F. Mager, S. Matthes, C. Schnadt, A. Stenke, B. Steil, C. Brühl, and M. Giorgetta, 2004: Long - term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry - climate model employing realistic forcings, in preparation.

Long - term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry - climate model employing realistic forcings, in preparation.

Basically the fact is that it seems to be difficult or impossible to build physically realistic climate models that do not predict a climate warming.

He made that very clear in the introduction: «In this paper we study the response of a 3D global climate model to realistic rates of change of radiative forcing mechanisms.»

This implies that a realistic simulation of regimes should be an important requirement from climate models.

«The usual discussion is whether the climate model forecasts of Earth's climate 100 years or so into the future are realistic,» said the lead author, Dr. David H. Douglass from the University of Rochester.

Also, the results imply that incorporating realistic, time - varying Arctic stratospheric ozone into climate models may improve ENSO predictions.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that «an ensemble of climate model projections» of (realistic) global climate models are statistically likely to be within this climatic null hypothesis.

I find the following section immensely telling about climate modeling: «The bottom line is that, although there has been some narrowing of the range of climate sensitivities that emerge from realistic models [Del Genio and Wolf, 2000], models still can be made to yield a wide range of sensitivities by altering model parameterizations.

A realistic test of a climate model would be to initialize it to conditions around 1850 - 1880 (which would mean making multiple runs with random starting data) and see if the average model outputs follow the measured trend from 1900 onwards.

I'm going to assume you aren't claiming that most climate scientists don't understand that there are issues with the models, that different models give different results, that as we move in time the models are less likely to be accurate, and that the models are just that models and not complete realistic representations of climate.

It is imperative that the summit recommends a realistic roadmap to enable and accelerate progress in climate modelling and prediction and to provide substantial and sustained support for enhanced workforce and computing resources.

And to make this realistic pictures, a simple scaling is often not adequate to depict all consequences of an altered background climate, and models are useful tools for this.

After a summary of his 2012 paper, Roger argues that climate models perform poorly in terms of modelling a realistic recent past and presents quotes from some papers to support this claim.

When I started working with climate models and saw how poorly they reproduce precipitation patterns, I was forced into the realization that the «science» was being fit to the models and that the models were not very realistic.

With this information, I examine global climate model predictions of future climate to see whether the models change in what seem to be realistic ways.

A real climate model could produce realistic - looking (if not actually accurate) mode changes between ice ages and interglacials, as well as having similar behavior in each mode.

Current GCM models may have realistic - seeming weather patterns, but are totally incapable of producing phenomena that look like the Holocene (Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Holocene Optimum, the steady decline of temperature on average over the last 3,000 years, etc.) The Climate Science community has, instead, taken the path of trying to claim that these swings didn't occur (Michael Mann's «Hockey Stick», etc.) This does not give me a lot of confidence in the rest of their «science».

Using proxy - data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity.

Fully coupled global climate model experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate model experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forecmodel experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forClimate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forecModel version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate forecasts.

These studies show that the decrease in low - cloud amount with surface warming overcompensates the low - cloud increase by inversion strengthening seen in a warmer climate, and more realistic models tend to exhibit larger low - cloud feedback and higher ECS (see this blog post for a more thorough discussion).

Merging realistic estimates of low - cloud amount, high - cloud amount, and extratropical optical depth feedbacks would likely increase our confidence in constraints on climate sensitivity from climate models.