Sentences with phrase «reasonable temperature estimates»

Even if you get a reasonable temperature estimate you must have an accurate date.

Not exact matches

Its method assumes that estimating the carbon drawdown gives a reasonable estimate of the overall effect on temperatures, and treats low and high - latitude forests equally.

While this is reasonable for looking at changes over time, it is certainly not an estimate of the true mean of the surface temperature of the globe.

This was a relatively stable climate (for several thousand years, 20,000 years ago), and a period where we have reasonable estimates of the radiative forcing (albedo changes from ice sheets and vegetation changes, greenhouse gas concentrations (derived from ice cores) and an increase in the atmospheric dust load) and temperature changes.

It seems to me (a rank amateur) that the most reasonable way to estimate temperature trends due to CO2 increase is to find the statistical correlation between the CO2 and the temperature anomaly time series.

Based on the principles of radiative physics and reasonable estimates of feedbacks and climate sensitivity, I would say that any current oscillations beyond those we already know can't be strong so strong that they leave little or no room for what anthropogenic emissions are contributing to the temperature trend.

Choice 3: Can we devise a carbon tax flexible enough to deal with the above uncertainties that: a) is fully refunded to every citizen and exporters, b) collected from importers, c) rises exponentially with future temperature change, d) responds to the willingness and effectiveness of other nations to limit their emissions, and e) provides reasonable economic incentives to reduce emissions if the IPCC's central estimates are correct?

We can make good estimates of global temperature so can estimate planck radiation (on global level), good estimates of albedo from ice extent, reasonable estimates of evaporation and convection from temperature contraints, now try closing that surface budget with GHG.

A reasonable rule - of - thumb to estimate crawlspace ground surface temperatures is to use the average annual ambient air temperature for that location.

A more reasonable low estimate is RCP4.5, which will produce a temperature increase by the last two decade of the 21st century of close to 3 °C over preindustrial times, and RCP8.5, our current trajectory, which could produce a temperature increase closer to 5 °C.

It may be a reasonable assumption that the temperature at stations 10 - 30 km apart will be similar, but you don't know that and the estimate has to add significantly to uncertainty.

The same posts provides estimates of a possible coming cooling based on the reasonable supposition that the current temperature peak is a more or less synchronous peak in the 60 and 960 year quasi - periodicities.

I read Nic's defense here, but I did not see that he refuted the argument I made on his estimate of CS on Stoat: http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/12/20/people-if-you-want-to-argue-with-stoats-first-read-enough-to-be-a-weasel-parrots-neednt-apply/#comment-24749 — It seems to me that Lewis» calculations are reasonable, but they lowball temperature change, ignore ocean heat absorption below 2000 m, and high - ball radiative forcing.

`... over the 100 years since 1870 the successive five year values of average temperatures in England have been highly significantly correlated with the best estimates of the averages for the whole Northern Hemisphere and for the whole earth» (In this last comment he is no doubt referring to his work at CRU where global surface records back to 1860 or so were eventually gathered) he continued; «they probably mean that over the last three centuries the CET temperatures provide a reasonable indication of the tendency of the global climatic regime.»

Summary of how they got to this finding: They use CMIP models which, if not outright flawed, have not proved their validity in estimated temperature levels in the 2030 to 2070 timeframe, are used as the basis for extrapolations that assert the creation of more and more 3 - sigma «extreme events» of hot weather; this is despite the statistical contradiction and weak support for predicting significant increases in outlier events based on mean increases; then, based on statistical correlations between mortality and extreme heat events (ie heat waves), temperature warming trends are conjured into an enlargement of the risks from heat events; risks increase significantly only by ignoring obvious adjustments and mitigations any reasonable community or person would make to adapt to warmer weather.

However, ocean temperatures have warmed almost everywhere on the planet, with 0.5 ºC being the global mean rise of sea surface temperature, hence Trenberth's reasonable estimate that this much is the contribution from global forcings like CO2.