We receive public betting percentages from 7 contributing sportsbooks (Sportsbook.com, BetUs, Carib, GT Bets, 5Dimes, SIA and CRIS) for the spread, moneyline, over / under and parlays.
For those who are unfamiliar,
we receive public betting percentages from seven contributing sportsbooks: Sportsbook.com, Sports Interaction (SIA), BetUs, Carib, GT Bets, 5Dimes and BetDSI (CRIS).
We don't
receive public betting trends from Pinnacle.
For those who are unfamiliar,
we receive public betting percentages from seven contributing sportsbooks: Sportsbook.com, BetUs, Carib, GT Bets, 5Dimes, Sports Interaction (SIA) and CRIS (Bookmaker).
Not exact matches
As you can see
betting on teams who are
receiving less than 35 % of
public wagers has the highest units earned with 28.14, however the actual return on investment would be noticeably higher when that number drops below 30 %.
The best - value
bets can often be found by going against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of
public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or
receives a larger point spread than is warranted.
The table below displays the results from
betting against the
public when that game
received at least the daily average.
This year's NHL
Betting Against the Public article details the profitable points for contrarian betting between 2005 and 2011, and teams receiving less than 40 % of moneyline bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on inve
Betting Against the
Public article details the profitable points for contrarian
betting between 2005 and 2011, and teams receiving less than 40 % of moneyline bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on inve
betting between 2005 and 2011, and teams
receiving less than 40 % of moneyline
bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on investment.
Since the
public is more willing to
bet on underdogs during the playoffs, we believed there would be value by taking a contrarian approach and backing the favorite — especially when they were
receiving limited
public support.
Sacramento also fits into a key filter of ours mentioned in this season's
Betting Against the
Public article, getting 10 + points on the road while
receiving less than 35 % of
bets.
As detailed in our 2011 NCAAB
Betting Against The Public article, there is great value betting on games where an underdog is receiving under a quarter of all sprea
Betting Against The
Public article, there is great value
betting on games where an underdog is receiving under a quarter of all sprea
betting on games where an underdog is
receiving under a quarter of all spread
bets.
The screenshot below, which is taken directly from
Bet Labs, highlights the value of
betting on visitors
receiving less than 25 % of
public bets.
Their next game, Linsanity began to transform into full blown hysteria with NY (+1.5 at Washington)
receiving 67 % of
public bets.
For our spread system, road teams
receiving no more than 30 % of
public bets have gone 429 - 353 (54.9 %) with +55.71 units won and a 7.1 % ROI.
Two days later in Lin's first start, the Knicks
received just 52 % of
public bets as 3 - point favorites against the Jazz.
Now that we're
receiving real money percentages from a sharp offshore sportsbook, we can see that
betting against the
public has been profitable for both favorites and underdogs.
Minnesota hasn't
received more than 69 % of spread
bets since hiring Zimmer, which is amazing considering they have played against many teams that are typically avoided by
public bettors including Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
In addition to
receiving our winning picks, you'll also have access to real - time odds from over 40 sportsbooks,
public betting trends, our newly added money percentages, our exclusive Line Watcher and access to all of our
bet signals including steam moves, reverse line movement alerts and contrarian plays.
As detailed in our 2011 - 12 NBA
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
Betting Against the
Public article, there is great value
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
betting on teams who are
receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 %...
The Seahawks opened as a 4.5 - point underdog but, according to our
public betting trends, are
receiving just 21 % of spread
bets.
The
public - friendly Patriots have
received on average 67.6 % of spread
bets this year — for what it's worth that number jumps to 71.2 % with Tom Brady under center — which is practically identical to the percent of spread tickets they're getting in Super Bowl 51.
No NFL team has
received more than 89 % of spread
bets since December 7, 2008 when the Patriots -LRB--7)
received 91 % of
public support against the Seattle Seahawks.
In fact, we detail this bias in our 2011 - 12
Betting Against the Public article which shows that betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
Betting Against the
Public article which shows that
betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
betting on teams who
receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at visitors.
Although both of these teams are currently
receiving more than 50 % of spread
bets, this highly profitable Steam Move indicates that there may be value
betting with the
public tonight.
As detailed in our 2011 - 12 NBA
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % sinc
Betting Against the
Public article, there is great value
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % sinc
betting on teams who are
receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % since 2003.
This means that Texas fits the aforementioned
betting system which looks to fade ranked teams
receiving overwhelming
public support.
According to our
public betting trends, the Crimson Tide have
received 80 % of spread tickets and 71 % of spread dollars.
The last time these two teams squared off, the
betting public was evenly split and the Raiders (closed -4)
received 54 % of spread
bets.
According to our
public betting trends, Washington has
received 67 % of spread tickets and 71 % of spread dollars.
According to our
public betting trends, Green Bay has
received 86 % of spread tickets, 94 % of spread dollars and 91 % of all parlays / teasers.
We saw similar line movement in the NCAA Football National Championship game between Alabama and Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish
received two - thirds of
public bets, yet moved from 7.5 to 10 point underdogs at most books.
In fact when we add our contrarian filter to the mix and look at home teams
receiving less than 40 % of
public bets, this system becomes even more advantageous with a 96 - 68 record — good for 23.28 units earned and a 14.2 % return on investment (ROI).
Sportsbooks know which teams will
receive the majority of
public bets before posting the opener, so they shade their opening lines to capitalize on
public perception.
It's unlikely that this extreme level of one - sided
public betting will continue until tip - off, but it's interesting to note that no favorite has ever
received less than 24 % of spread tickets in the NCAA Tournament and a number one seed has never
received less than 30 % of spread tickets.
It's a well - known fact that Notre Dame is one of the nation's most
public teams, having
received a majority of spread
bets in nearly two - thirds of their games.
The Cowboys (currently
receiving 18 % of spread tickets) have only closed with less than 20 % of tickets one time since we started tracking
public betting data in 2003.
Earlier this morning, my co-worker PJ Walsh explained how tonight's showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers (40 - 46 ATS overall, 19 - 24 ATS as visitors) and Toronto Raptors (47 - 41 ATS overall, 22 - 21 ATS at home) is
receiving historically one - sided levels of
public betting.
Notre Dame is consistently one of the nation's most
public teams, having
received a majority of spread
bets in nearly two - thirds of their games.
With far fewer heavily lopsided games during the playoffs, we would need to use a much broader definition of
betting against the
public and instead focus on teams
receiving no more than 50 % of moneyline
bets.
Public betting was balanced in each of the first two games with the Celtics (closed -4)
receiving 51 % of spread tickets in Game 1 and the Wizards (closed +5)
receiving 51 % of spread tickets in Game 2.
According to our
public betting trends, the Warriors have
received 70 % of spread tickets and 64 % of spread dollars.
According to our
public betting trends, the home favorite has
received just 21 % of spread tickets and 39 % of total dollars wagered.
To check this hypothesis, I went back to my
Bet Labs system and added the «spread percentage» filter to look only at teams
receiving between 0 and 35 % of
public bets.
just reading around and all if not most rags are saying our net spend is # 46 million how can they tell that when they do nt even know what our real budget is if it was # 100 million then we are in profit by quite a bit i do nt really know what they base there assumptions on this is where you could do with swiss ramble to dissect what really was spent from what i could see most of our 5 transfers were covered by out goings and c / l monies earned debuchy - vela deal, chambers - vermalen deal, ospina - cesc and miquel deals sanchez c / l monies and other monies recovered from wages and old installment based deals this is the same with welbeck i would imagine if not then poldolski will be sold in jan to cover this as i think he was going to be sold and this would have covered welbecks transfer more or less also and people do nt always realize that arsenal have money coming in from more than one source to cover transfers not just puma and emirates deals we have property arm of the club which makes money for transfers also outstanding debts we are owed of old transfers we
receive each year on song cesc maybe van persie and all other structured deals in installment payments sales we just flogged miquel as an example and all the monies from released wages and youths sold its a bit to complex to just say we have a net spend of xyz when arsenal do nt even make the budget
public so they have no starting point from which to go from i
bet you we have broke even or even made a slight profit as we are self sustaining it would make sense that we can break even or at least make the net spend under # 10 million each year at least screw then all we are the arsenal we do thing our way
Initially pushed up to -4.5 by
public support, there has since been strong reverse line movement dropping the line to -3 despite Nebraska
receiving 82 % of spread
bets.
Facing a 4 - 4 Dallas squad who has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, Fred Jackson and company are
receiving nearly eight of ten spread
bets, with the
betting public convinced they can keep it within five points at Cowboys Stadium.
Underdogs coming off an upset win (closed as underdog) have
received the majority of
public bets in almost 40 % of tournament games, and underdogs coming off an expected win (closed as favorite) have
received the majority in
public bets in just 25 % of their games.
It is uncommon to see a favorite
receiving such a low
betting percentage, however with two ranked teams playing it is easy to understand the
public's mentality.
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This action appears largely due to
public perception since the Clippers are currently
receiving 40 % of spread
bets.