Not exact matches
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate
change, and how much to natural variability (whether
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation,
sea -
surface temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
The problem here is that estimates of
changes in sea surface temperature and the depth of the warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most
recent findings are that flow rates vary over a whole order of magnitude:
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of
temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating
changes in global
temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases
in the
recent global
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations
in sea surface temperature trends
surface temperature trends»
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (
in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all
recent changes in land
surface temperatures and
sea surface temperatures and atmospheric
temperatures and deep
sea temperatures and
sea ice extent and
sea ice volume and
sea ice density and moisture content
in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.
Combine the satellite trend with the
surface observations and the umpteen non-
temperature based records that reflect
temperature change (from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent
in spring & fall to
sea level rise to stratospheric temps) and the evidence for
recent gradual warming is, well, unequivocal.
Here we show that accounting for
recent cooling
in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global
temperature change by prescribing,
in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of
sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific
in a climate model.
These trends
in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term
changes as well, including
surface and ocean
temperature increase over
recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and
sea level rise.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the
temperature trend during the
recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data»
in those trends (what the earth's
temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random
changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate
change»), and what represents experimental error
in the plots (UHI increases
in the
temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter
temperatures, differences
in sea records from different measuring techniques,
sea records vice land records, extrapolated land records over hundreds of km,
surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of
surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias
changes in the information.)
Regional circulation patterns have significantly
changed in recent years.2 For example,
changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate
change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability
in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
Monaghan et al. further note «
recent literature suggests there has been little overall
change in Antarctic near -
surface temperature during the past 5 decades» and «the absence of widespread Antarctic
temperature increases is consistent with studies showing little overall
change in other Antarctic climate indicators during the past 50 years such as
sea ice area and snowfall.»
Not only that, but there is increasingly compelling evidence that the
recent short - term slowdown
in the
surface temperature record was much less pronounced than previously estimated, if rapid Arctic warming is fully reflected, along with potential biases from the
changing mix of
sea surface temperature measurement sources
in recent years.
Ho added that the enhanced intensification of tropical cyclones over East Asian coastal
seas caused by
changes in sea surface temperature and wind flows mean that «an individual tropical cyclone could strike East Asia, including the Philippines, with a record - breaking power, for example Haiyan, even though landfall intensity in south - east Asia has not notably changed on average in recent years because of the shifted genesis location; note that Haiyan formed over the eastern Philippine Sea far from land.&raq
sea surface temperature and wind flows mean that «an individual tropical cyclone could strike East Asia, including the Philippines, with a record - breaking power, for example Haiyan, even though landfall intensity
in south - east Asia has not notably
changed on average
in recent years because of the shifted genesis location; note that Haiyan formed over the eastern Philippine
Sea far from land.&raq
Sea far from land.»