Christidis N, P.A. Stott, F.W. Zwiers, H. Shiogama, and T. Nozawa, 2009: Probalistic estimates of
recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attributions analysis.
After a gorgeous fall season here in Ontario,
the recent change in temperature signals that winter is inevitably on its way.
Not exact matches
Wildfires have gotten worse
in recent years because of climate
change, and that trend is expected to continue as Earth's average
temperature rises.
A similar adjustment can be applied to some of the
temperature change projections
in the most
recent IPCC report.
In its most
recent study of the impact of climate
change, the Bureau of Meteorology noted that average
temperatures across Australia have increased by almost 1 °C since 1910, and could rise by up to 5 °C by 2070.
«
Recent technological advances at our beamline allowed us to create the conditions to simulate these intense
temperatures and pressures and probe the
changes in chemistry and structure of the sample
in situ,» she said.
The
recent slowdown
in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future
temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.
Researchers do believe that climate
change contributes to more thawing of the ocean floor permafrost
in the Arctic because they have measured increases
in seafloor
temperatures in recent years.
A-C ranges from a luxury to a necessity to a literal lifesaver: a
recent study (Alan Barreca et al., Adapting to Climate
Change: The Remarkable Decline
in the U.S.
Temperature - Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century) by American economists showed heat - related deaths
in the U.S. dropped from roughly 3,600 per year to just 600 around 1960.
Our best guess, according to the most
recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report, is that doubling the CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere would raise global
temperatures between 1.5 and 4.5 °C.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will increase much faster than the global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted
in the
recent Paris Agreement on climate
change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.
Changes in local
temperatures can explain
recent geographical shifts of more than 300 different fish species: They've migrated toward the north or south poles, and even east or west into deeper waters, depending on their original locations.
The implication: because average
temperatures may warm by at least one degree C by 2030, «climate
change could increase the incidences of African civil war by 55 percent by 2030, and this could result
in about 390,000 additional battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as
recent wars.»
Climate
change made it 175 times more likely that Coral Sea
temperatures would reach the high levels
in March that triggered extensive bleaching, according to the results of a
recent scientific analysis.
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate
change, and how much to natural variability (whether
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface
temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
The
recent paper, published August 30
in Science Advances, found that without significant
changes, Jordan could face lower rainfall, much higher
temperatures and as much as a 75 percent decline
in water flowing into the country from Syria.
In its
recent Assessement Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) projects that global mean
temperature may rise up to 5 °C elsius by the end of this century.
The findings show a slight but notable increase
in that average
temperature, putting a dent
in the idea that global warming has slowed over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted
in the most
recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report.
The
changes in tree - ring width are closely correlated with
temperature, the study concludes:
recent warming
in western US is the best explanation for last century's unprecedented growth spurt.
That study addressed a puzzle, namely that
recent studies using the observed
changes in Earth's surface
temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range.
Relevant to this issue, there is currently a debate among paleoclimatologists with respect to the following condundrum: A dramatic recession of the more - than - 11,000 year old ice cap of Mt. Kilimanjaro
in tropical East Africa is taking place despite any clear evidence that
temperatures have exceeded the melting threshold (one explanation is that the
changes are largely associated with a drying atmosphere
in the region; the most
recent evidence, however, seems to indicate that melting may indeed now be underway).
A
recent paper
in Nature Geosciences by Gillet et al. examined trends
in temperatures in the both Antarctic and the Arctic, and concluded that «
temperature changes in both... regions can be attributed to human activity.»
A number of
recent studies indicate that effects of urbanisation and land use
change on the land - based
temperature record are negligible (0.006 ºC per decade) as far as hemispheric - and continental - scale averages are concerned because the very real but local effects are avoided or accounted for
in the data sets used.
The first collection of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and
temperature changes in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b) natural ocean oscillations are,
in turn, modulated by solar activity.
The graphic displays monthly global
temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts how each month compares to the average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used
in the most
recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes the additional large - scale surface
temperature reconstructions and documentation of the spatial coherence of
recent warming described above (Cook et al. 2004, Moberg et al. 2005b, Rutherford et al. 2005, D'Arrigo et al. 2006, Osborn and Briffa 2006, Wahl and Ammann
in press) and also the pronounced
changes in a variety of local proxy indicators described
in previous chapters (e.g., Thompson et al.
in press).
More
recent studies, with much more precise correlation between ice cores and global
temperature records, have shown that
temperature and CO2
changed synchronously
in Antarctica during the end of the last ice age, and globally CO2 rose slightly before global
temperatures.
Easier on the eyes than an e-reader,
in the right circumstances: While the e-ink of an e-reader customarily strains the eye much less than the LCD or OLED screen of a phone or tablet, there is one
recent exception: phones and tablets that can use a «night shift» or «night mode» setting to
change the color
temperature of a display to something warmer.
Water
temperature changes have cause coral bleaching
in recent years, particularly
in 1998 and 2010.
There are a large number of
recent peer - reviewed scientific publications demonstrating how solar activity can affect our climate (Benestad, 2002), such as how
changes in the UV radiation following the solar activity affect the stratospheric ozone concentrations (1999) and how earth's
temperatures respond to
changes in the total solar irradiance (Meehl, 2003).
On the possibility of a
changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming
in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal
temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
Because the title is comparing Hegerl's results not with the standard range, but with the subject of your post, namely «
recent research suggesting that the climate may be susceptible to extreme increases
in temperature», noting that «Several studies have found that the
temperature change may be higher than 16.2 ºF (9ºC).
According to a
recent article
in Eos (Doran and Zimmermann, «Examining the Scientific consensus on Climate
Change `, Volume 90, Number 3, 2009; p. 22 - 23 — only available for AGU members — update: a public link to the article is here), about 58 % of the general public
in the US thinks that human activity is a significant contributing factor
in changing the mean global
temperature, as opposed to 97 % of specialists surveyed.
In contrast, the warming during the most
recent period, often used as evidence of human induced climate
change, is characterized by
temperature moderation — the pattern of
temperature rise exhibits a strong, preferential warming of the coldest days of the year.
The problem here is that estimates of
changes in sea surface
temperature and the depth of the warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most
recent findings are that flow rates vary over a whole order of magnitude:
The most
recent report concluded both, that global
temperatures are rising, that this is caused largely by human activities and,
in addition, that for increases
in global average
temperature, there are projected to be major
changes in ecosystem structure and function with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems, e.g. water and food supply.
However nothing is fixed, and because renewable energy has fallen so much
in price, and because of the
recent record setting
temperatures, the views of the public and politicians are likely near a major tipping point of
change.
First came the Web posting of new analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface
Temperature project pointing to the dominant role of humans
in driving
recent climate
change.
Two things have
changed in recent years — first, the
temperature changes over the historical period are now more persistent, and so the trend
in relation to the year - to - year variability has become more significant (this is still true even if you think there has been a «hiatus»).
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a
recent NASA publication concluding that deep ocean
temperatures have not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science of climate
change, it is the latest
in a series of findings that show global warming to have slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth
in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
Live Updates Below and see new post Richard Muller, a cantankerous but creative physicist at the University of California, Berkeley, who once derided climate
change research, then dove
in with his own reconstruction of terrestrial
temperature changes and confirmed substantial warming, has now concluded that
recent warming is «almost entirely» human caused.
A comprehensive new analysis of
temperature changes over the continents through 2,000 years has found that a long slide
in temperatures in most regions preceded the unusual global warming of
recent decades, but with a lot of regional variability and other fascinating details.
That study addressed a puzzle, namely that
recent studies using the observed
changes in Earth's surface
temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range.
By contrast the hockey stick shows virtually no
change over 1,000 years
in the mean
temperature and only a small variation
in temperature over the past 1,000 years (+ - 0.2 degrees variation from the mean)(ignoring the
recent uptick
in temperatures).
Relevant to this issue, there is currently a debate among paleoclimatologists with respect to the following condundrum: A dramatic recession of the more - than - 11,000 year old ice cap of Mt. Kilimanjaro
in tropical East Africa is taking place despite any clear evidence that
temperatures have exceeded the melting threshold (one explanation is that the
changes are largely associated with a drying atmosphere
in the region; the most
recent evidence, however, seems to indicate that melting may indeed now be underway).
Changes (increases)
in rainfall intensity,
temperatures, humidity and rate of snowmelt and have occurred
in recent decades, due
in part to increases
in CO2 concentration.
Solar cycle length Veizer suggests the
recent global warming might be driven by
changes in solar activity (his Fig. 14a — dashed line is
temperature, solid line with diamonds is solar cycle length).
This effect is generally calculated based on the
change in recent temperatures as compared to the
change in CO2 levels (minus, of course, natural variability).
An anomaly is the
change in temperature relative to a baseline which usually the pre-industrial period, or a more
recent climatology (1951 - 1980, or 1980 - 1999 etc.).
The ESS has a problem
in that it assumes
temperature changes are linear, whereas they have been exponential
in recent times.