I know of no one who claims that «
recent decadal variability is all anthropogenic is wrong».
The warming attribution problem remains and the point is that the assumption that
recent decadal variability is all anthropogenic is wrong.
Not exact matches
Indeed, one valid criticism of the
recent papers on transient constraints is precisely that the simple models used do not have sufficient
decadal variability!
No mention is made of ENSO or Pacific
decadal variations that dominate interannual and
decadal variability in the real world, and which are a key to understanding the
recent hiatus, and
recent trends that are not representative of longer - term trends, although frequently interpreted as such.
Decadal variability has been acknowledged in many other
recent publications such as...
And the $ 64,000 question then is basically how much did internal
decadal variability contribute... during the
recent decades and I think the jury is still out about the relative contribution of this internal
variability.
«What's really been exciting to me about this last 10 - year period is that it has made people think about
decadal variability much more carefully than they probably have before,» said Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist and former lead author of the United Nations» climate change report, during a
recent visit to MIT.
At least part of the
recent US drought is down to patterns of ocean circulation that have
decadal to millennial
variability.
In a
recent paper, Sanchez - Franks and Zhang show that the underlying physical driver for the
decadal variability in the Gulf Stream path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low - frequency
variability of the large - scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic, also known as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Comparison with the literature shows that the CSSR draft misleads by omission in not mentioning both the strong
decadal ‐ scale
variability of GMSL rates during the 20th century and the fact that the most
recent values of the rate are statistically indistinguishable from those during the first half of the 20th century.
As the authors state, these fluxes reflect fundamental characteristics of the climate system and have been well measured by satellite instrumentation in the
recent past — although (multi)
decadal internal
variability in them could be a confounding factor.
Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in
recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified in
recent changes in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of
variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
Intensification of
decadal and multi-
decadal sea level
variability in the western tropical Pacific during
recent decades.
While there still is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the effects of the PDO on Earth's climate, the U.K. Met Office says that «
decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean may have played a substantial role in the
recent pause in global surface temperature rise.»
Latif, M., Martin, T. & Park, W. Southern Ocean sector centennial climate
variability and
recent decadal trends.
`... there is increasing evidence that natural
decadal variability has been the major determinant for
recent global mean surface temperatures...»
There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific
Decadal Oscillation that replicates the
recent past; yet these are critical modes of
variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond.
Given these and other misrepresentations of natural oceanic
variability on
decadal scales (e.g., Zhang and McPhaden 2006), a role for natural causes of at least some of the
recent oceanic warming should not be ruled out.»
In one of his slides he asks ««how much did internal
decadal variability contribute to the warming during the
recent decades?
Increasing attention is being paid to IPCC misrepresentations of natural oceanic
variability on
decadal scales (Compo and Sardeshmukh 2009): «Several
recent studies suggest that the observed SST
variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and
decadal scales (e.g., Shukla et al. 2006, DelSole, 2006; Newman 2007; Newman et al. 2008).