JC says «There are three main theories for
the recent decline in sea ice extent and volume,» gives the three, but gives no program for testing which theory is true.
«So there's a definite
recent decline in sea ice,» Jessica Blunden, a climatologist with ERT, Inc. at NCEI and the lead editor of the report, said.
Not exact matches
After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic
sea -
ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum
in 2012, we synthesize
recent developments
in the study of ecological responses to
sea -
ice decline.
Although researchers have been generally successful at modelling the huge
declines in Arctic
sea ice, the extent of Antarctic
sea ice has actually increased
in recent years, contrary to the predictions of models.
However, the share of thermal expansion
in global
sea level rise has
declined in recent decades as the shrinking of land
ice has accelerated (Lombard et al 2005).
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decade
In contrast, the scenario
in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decade
in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then
declining slowly, should allow summer
sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of
recent decades.
A
recent paper by Francis & Hunter provides an interesting discussion about reasons for the
recent decline in the Arctic
sea -
ice extent, based on new satellite observations.
The credible scientific studies I can find indicate that the observed Arctic
sea ice decline has accellerated
in recent years, which would make a linear interpolation a really lousey estimate with which to predict the future.
So, I was curious about your
recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes
in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the
decline in minimum extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.
For example,
recent results from the Met Office do show that there is a detectable human impact
in the long - term
decline in sea ice over the past 30 years, and all the evidence points to a complete loss of summer
sea ice much later this century.
In fact, recent research has suggested that, perhaps unintuitively, the extreme cold spell experienced by Europe this winter was linked to the sea ice decline in the Arcti
In fact,
recent research has suggested that, perhaps unintuitively, the extreme cold spell experienced by Europe this winter was linked to the
sea ice decline in the Arcti
in the Arctic.
«A number of
recent climate change reports even failed to mention polar bears
in their discussion of Arctic
sea ice decline... Crockford, «Even Al Gore seems to have forgotten to include the plight of polar bears
in his newest climate change movie.
Most interpretations of the
recent decline in Arctic
sea ice extent have focused on the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, with some allowance for natural variability.
The dramatic
decline in Arctic
sea ice and snow is one of the most profound signs of global warming and has coincided with «a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and
recent severe winters,» according to the conference organizers, who are posting updates under the #arctic17 hashtag on Twitter.
It is arguably one of the most advanced of the seven
in its impacts, with a 2011 GRL report putting its warming effect as equivalent to around 30 % of atmospheric anthro - CO2, and the
recent report putting albedo loss from arctic
sea -
ice decline since»79 as providing a forcing equivalent on average to that from 25 % of the anthro - CO2 levels during the period.
The figure shows a clear and steady
decline in Arctic
sea ice since the late 1970s, with lighter darker colours (earlier years) at the top and lighter colors (more
recent years) much lower.
There is ample evidence that the
recent decline in Arctic
Sea Ice is primarily driven by Wind and Atmospheric Oscillations, i.e.: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/16/the-economist-provides-readers-with-erroneous-information-about-arctic-
sea-
ice/
Depending on how the weather plays out over the next few weeks, that minimum is likely to fall somewhere between second and fifth place, they estimate — still a remarkably low level that shows how precipitously
sea ice has
declined in recent decades.
Recent trends
in the
decline of Arctic polar
sea ice extent continued
in 2016.
For more on the terrestrial foods topic, see my detailed discussion
in this previous post, and this
recent (March 30) ScienceNews report on yet another, largely anecdotal «polar bears resort to bird eggs because of
declining sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs
in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were
in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on
sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice conditions
in the Barents
SeaSea).
To summarise, the
recent decline in Arctic
sea ice doesn't seem to be unusual, or related to human activity.
It is likely that there has been about a 40 percent
decline in Arctic
sea -
ice thickness during late summer to early autumn
in recent decades and a considerably slower
decline in winter
sea -
ice thickness.
The area of Arctic
sea ice was nearly 30 % greater
in August than a year ago, according to
recent satellite data, though projections based on longer - term trends suggest the
sea ice will continue its
decline over time.
If this is correct, then the fact that the
sea ice extent has been «
declining since records began» (
in 1979) doesn't mean that
recent trends are unusual.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decade
In contrast, the scenario
in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decade
in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then
declining slowly, should allow summer
sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of
recent decades.
While all the press is about the observed
declines in Arctic
sea ice extent
in recent decades, little attention at all is paid to the fact that the
sea ice extent
in the Antarctic has been on the increase.
The magnitude and pace of the
recent Arctic
sea -
ice decline and ocean warming is «unprecedented»
in at least the past 1,500 years and likely much longer, according to a federal report released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and I. Rigor, 2012:
Recent changes
in the dynamic properties of
declining Arctic
sea ice: A model study.
In recent years with sharp summer
sea ice decline, the Arctic seems more sensitive to climate warming than elsewhere on Earth.
A series of extremely low September
sea ice conditions during the last decade, including the unprecedented
declines in 2007 and 2012, suggests a
recent acceleration
in the long - term Arctic
sea ice loss (e.g., Stroeve et al., 2012b).
In their paper «Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any trends in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ic
In their paper «Exploring
recent trends
in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any trends in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ic
in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any trends
in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ic
in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes
in global warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ic
in global warming and / or the
declines in Arctic sea ic
in Arctic
sea ice.
The Heartland Institute was quick to republish the paper, putting the initially submitted manuscript online as early as April 30, 2017, pointing to it as proof that «The
recent decline in Arctic
sea ice is not unique.»
For example, while all of the global climate models participating
in the most
recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report show a
decline in Arctic
sea ice over the period of available observations, none of them match the severity of the trends we actually observe.