Sentences with phrase «recent ice trends»
This afternoon, I asked Marika Holland, a climate and ice modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, to consider recent ice trends in light of her work with Jennifer E. Kay and Alexandra Jahn on a paper finding likely periods of ice recovery on the way to an ice - free Arctic in summer.
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/ Not exact matches
Too much debate treats temperature (and especially the most recent global average) as the sole indicator, whereas many other factors are at play including sea levels, ocean acidity, ice sheets, ecosystem trends, and many more.
Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.
Alternatively if the recent collapse of sea ice is a genuine trend, the CCSM4 models are found even more wanting.
Arctic researchers caution that there is something of a paradox in Arctic trends: while the long - term fate of the region may be mostly sealed, no one should presume that the recent sharp warming and seasonal ice retreats that have caught the world's attention will continue smoothly into the future.
Although a recent downward trend in coverage is clearly visible by naked eye inspection, Goddard invites us to believe there has ``... been no net gain or loss of polar sea ice since records began.»
I recommend you check out my recent piece on sea - ice trends in Science Times.
We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration as an explanation for the observed long - term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea - ice minima.
Scientists who study the warming seas and complicated climate and ice trends around Antarctica got a big jolt in recent days as yet another great fringing, floating ice shelf jutting from the Antarctic Peninsula began to disintegrate.
Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.
It remains to be seen whether a future return to a consistently strongly negative A.O. (typically associated with cooler temperatures and sequestered ice in the Arctic) would be sufficient to reverse the trend of the recent warming and ice decline.
Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.
Although these observations do not necessarily compel the conclusion that listing is unwarranted, they do counsel substantial caution in definitively tying the polar bear's longterm well - being to recent trends in ice melting.
If recent trends continue, the Arctic will be ice - free on January 30, 2018 at 6:04 AM, with polar temperatures averaging -31 C. Ocean and Ice Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Instiice - free on January 30, 2018 at 6:04 AM, with polar temperatures averaging -31 C. Ocean and Ice Services Danmarks Meteorologiske InstiIce Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
The ice mass loss observed in this research was a change from the trend of losing 113 ± 17 gigatons per year during the 1990s, but was smaller than some other recent estimates (Luthcke et al. 2006).
Recent trends in sea ice have been studied heavily.
When sceptics look at statistical data, whether it is recent ice melt, deep sea temperatures, current trend in global surface temperatures, troposphere temperatures, ice core records etc. they look at the data as it is without any pre-conceptions and describe what it says.
One passage written by Heartland reads, «Scientists who study the issue say it is impossible to tell if the recent small warming trend is natural, a continuation of the planet's recovery from the more recent «Little Ice Age,» or unnatural, the result of human greenhouse gas emissions.»
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent changes in land surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric temperatures and deep sea temperatures and sea ice extent and sea ice volume and sea ice density and moisture content in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.
Nor is there a mention of the fact that according to the most recent research, there has been no trend in sea ice conditions since 2001.
«the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration as an explanation for the observed long - term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea - ice minima.
Fan, T., et al. (2014) Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950, Geophys.
However, despite this, the team reckon to have perhaps isolated a «global warming» signal in the accelerated run off of the Greenland Ice Mass — but only just, because the runoff at the edges is balanced by increasing central mass — again, they focus upon recent trends — a net loss of about 22 cubic kilometres in total ice mass per year which they regard as statistically not significant — to find the «signal», and a contradiction to their ealier context of air temperature cyclIce Mass — but only just, because the runoff at the edges is balanced by increasing central mass — again, they focus upon recent trends — a net loss of about 22 cubic kilometres in total ice mass per year which they regard as statistically not significant — to find the «signal», and a contradiction to their ealier context of air temperature cyclice mass per year which they regard as statistically not significant — to find the «signal», and a contradiction to their ealier context of air temperature cycles.
Given the demonstrated covariability between sea ice and the AMO, it follows that a change to a negative AMO phase in the coming decade (s) could — to some degree — temporarily ameliorate the strongly negative recent sea - ice trends.»
Recent trends in the decline of Arctic polar sea ice extent continued in 2016.
IPCC synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on assumptions about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to estimates of sea level roughly following a linear upward trend mimicking that of recent decades.
Recent Arctic sea ice behaviour is jerky, sometimes showing a seasonal growing trend and sometimes showing a seasonal declining trend.
The «hiding the decline» refers neither to Little Ice Age (as the Spiked Online version says) nor the recent pause in the upward trend of temperatures, but rather the pasting of current temperature data onto some rather dubious proxy data to continue the hockey stick pattern through the 20th century.
The outlook for the pan-arctic sea ice extent in September 2008 indicates a continuation of the recent trend of sea ice loss.
---- Cerrone and Fusco, 2017 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0184.1 Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH [Southern Hemisphere] sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long — term trends.
Such models also indicate that warming would initially cause the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole to gain mass owing to an increased accumulation of snowfall (*; some recent studies find no significant continent - wide trends in accumulation over the past several decades; Lemke et al., 2007 Section 4.6.3.1).
The area of Arctic sea ice was nearly 30 % greater in August than a year ago, according to recent satellite data, though projections based on longer - term trends suggest the sea ice will continue its decline over time.
If this is correct, then the fact that the sea ice extent has been «declining since records began» (in 1979) doesn't mean that recent trends are unusual.
This NASA report - the most recent available - shows «that 2007 marked an overall rise in the melting trend over the entire Greenland ice sheet and, remarkably, melting in high - altitude areas was greater than ever at 150 percent more than average.»
These and other observations can be integrated into a model with feedbacks and having two unstable end ‐ points that is consistent both with classical studies of past climate states, and also with recent analysis of ice dynamics in the Arctic basin by Zhakarov, whose oscillatory model identifies feedback mechanisms in atmosphere and ocean, both positive and negative, that interact in such a manner as to prevent long ‐ term trends in either ice ‐ loss or ice ‐ gain on the Arctic Ocean to proceed to an ultimate state.
1 — did the circulation - driven fall in Arctic sea ice (which AR4 models don't do a great job of) have anything to do with the recent jump in Arctic temperatures and if so, could we get the «right» global temp trend for the «wrong» reasons.
It is the 30 - year significant downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent, which has accelerated in recent years, that is the important indicator of climate change.
But I'd bet that the increase in Arctic sea ice reported by Russian studies from the 1940s to the1970s had something to do with the cooling trend over those years, while the sea ice retreat since 1979 had something to do with the more recent warming trend there.
These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature increase over recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and sea level rise.
The G refers to global, thus the MEAN global T must rise, the mean sea ice extent must decrease, global sea level trend must increase, global tornadoes must rise, global floods must increase, the rate of global sea riseust rise, and all the global change MUST be catastrophic, and clearly outside of recent past global flux.
Also, a recent analysis of Antarctic sea ice trends for 1978 — 1996 by Watkins and Simmonds [2000] found significant increases in both Antarctic sea ice extent and ice area, similar to the results in this paper.
This late - 1970s reversal in sea ice trends was not captured by the hindcasts of the recent CMIP5 climate models used for the latest IPCC reports, which suggests that current climate models are still quite poor at modelling past sea ice trends.»
In other words, if it continues, the recent trend in sea ice loss may triple overall Arctic warming, causing large emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»).
In their paper «Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any trends in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ice.
The time series of total Arctic ice extent shows a statistically significant positive trend and correlates negatively with recent high - latitude temperature fluctuations.
Hannu, If anythign the river ice data shows nothing is changing, and in the recent period it is breaking up later; The trend is a very smooth change.
M&K 2012 use 10 year means for observations so any recent change in Ice trend will not feature.
The current warming trend 1998 - 2005, has no precedent in recent Arctic memory, there were a few unique occasions when open water was seen during mid-winter over Barrow Strait, but this was at roughly 10 year intervals, now the intervals are totally irregular, but between Islands ice cover is not the best indication of warming, monthly temperature readings for the past 4 years or so, have been mostly above normal by 1 to the occasional 4 to 5 degrees.
Yet more evidence that Schneider believed in a coming ice age: In 1976 in «The Genesis Strategy» he wrote: «I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well - known climatologists that a cooling trend has set in — perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age — and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.&raqice age: In 1976 in «The Genesis Strategy» he wrote: «I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well - known climatologists that a cooling trend has set in — perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age — and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.&raqIce Age — and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.»
This «overall warming trend» started long before there were any human CO2 emissions to speak of (as we have been emerging from the Little Ice Age) and has continued through the most recent warming.