Sentences with phrase «recent model predicted»

A recent model predicted that 5 to 12 percent of islands could be totally submerged by 2100.

Although recent models predict that a small net accumulation of carbon will occur in Arctic tundra during the present century (low confidence), higher methane emissions responding to the thawing of permafrost and an overall increase in wetlands will enhance radiative forcing (medium confidence).

Not exact matches

A coalescence model predicts an expected time to a most recent common ancestral male lineage of 270,000 years (95 percent confidence limits: 0 to 800,000 years).

In recent years, scientists have worked to understand why this «pause» in warming has occurred and was not predicted by models (ClimateWire Nov. 1, 2013).

Another model predicted that cycle 24 would be weaker than recent cycles, but the present model's accuracy in predicting past events and scientists» deeper understanding of the underlying solar physics may give it an edge, according to David Hathaway, a solar astronomer at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.

He found that the pattern of rainfall predicted by the model closely resembles the rainfall pattern of recent summers.

During the Acoustical Society of America's Spring 2016 Meeting, May 23 - 27, in Salt Lake City, Ilene Busch - Vishniac, an acoustical consultant, will present a model that predicts how often alarm errors will occur based on several recent studies of hospital alarms.

At a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Austin, Texas, Valtonen described how this model predicted the timing of the most recent flare - up, in September 2007.

Their recent study, which appears as the cover article in the May issue of Cancer Research, shows that mathematical models can be used to predict how different tumor cell populations interact with each other and respond to a changing environment.

They then looked at 11 different climate models that predict precipitation and CAPE through this century and are archived in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

For plenty of reasons it could happen much more quickly — recent observations suggest that the melting has not only exceeded what models predict, but has also begun to accelerate.

A recent trend in GCMs is to extend them to become Earth system models, that include such things as submodels for atmospheric chemistry or a carbon cycle model to better predict changes in carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in emissions.

An NAO - based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971 - 2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted.

According to VP113's discovery team, their and other recent surveys indicate that there are few (although probably not zero) inner Oort cloud objects with perihelion distances (closest orbital point to Sol) between 50 and 75 AUs, which is consistent with stellar encounter models (that include the capture of extrasolar objects) that predict a strong inner edge to the perihelion distribution of outer Solar System objects (Trujillo and Sheppard, 2014).

Recent models of this process predict that the orbit of the newly formed Moon should be in, or very near [less than 1 °], the Earth's equatorial plane.

On a separate subject, Nair was asked how he felt about a recent Consumer Reports survey that listed Ford 26th of 28 brands in terms of ’14 models» predicted reliability.

The companies then run background checks, including a close examination of credit scores, available credit, and recent credit card applications, and they plug those factors into mathematical models that predict the likelihood that you will repay the money.

But the model also predicts $ 21.9 mio of maturities in the next yr, which looks achievable vs. the recent FY 12 acceleration to $ 16.9 mio of maturities.

[8] One recent study spatially overlaid the requisite physical parameters for kelp with mean oceanographic conditions has produced a model predicting the existence of subsurface kelps throughout the tropics worldwide to depths of 200 m. For a hotspot in the Galapagos Islands, the local model was improved with fine - scale data and tested; the research team found thriving kelp forests in all eight of their sampled sites, all of which had been predicted by the model, thus validated their approach.

Models actually predict that the interior of the ice sheets should gain mass because of the increased snowfall that goes along with warmer temperatures, and recent observations actually agree with those predictions.

The empirical relationships developed by Cohen and colleagues do a far superior job than current dynamical models in predicting recent wintertime weather.

First, did any computer model predict the recent cooling?

Nearly invariably they are quickly revealed as being on scene purely to grind away at the particular topic du jour they've been fed elsewhere, be it the eldritch but still occasionally visible «we can't even predict the weather so how can we model climate» to the more recent «cosmic rays are overwhelming CO2» canard.

Quoting: One persistent abuser of this technique is Pat Michaels, and in a recent piece he was unable to resist claiming that the century - scale trends (~ 0.8 C from 1891 - 1900 to 1991 - 2000 in the annual mean) seen in this extended Southern Greenland data apparently invalidate the notion of polar amplification as predicted by the «models».

At a global scale, increased CO2 concentrations could partially offset expected yield declines caused by lower soil moisture and higher temperature, but recent models suggest a significantly smaller fertilization effect from CO2 than previously predicted (25).

Given that the other important variables (sea surface temps, depth of the warm layer, and atmospheric moisture) are all predicted to increase, it seems hard to make the claim that tropical cyclones will be unchanged, just as it seemed unwise to claim that Lyman et al's «Recent cooling of the upper oceans» meant that climate models had fatal flaws.

How well did those models predict the recent expansion of Bering Sea Ice that is currently 160 % + above average.

There is a recent press release from model runs in Hamburg predicting an ice - free Arctic summer: http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2005/pressRelease200509301/ Meanwhile, there is some evidence that warming permafrost is going to release vast amounts of ancient methane to the atmosphere.

I have the same problem with the global temperature simulations, the most recent measured data (12 years) is not trending as the models predicted.

The paper provides a geologically long - term perspective on recent temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and the ability of climate models, such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) models used in the study, to predict the changes.

There are divergent views on whether the recent droughts affecting the tornado states were caused by climate change — although climate models do predict more droughts in central North America, which is often a vast playpen of deadly twisters.

Martha: «No one who reads actual science is able to engage with questions about the recent decades of warming of the ocean and why this has been greater than the older models predicted...»

No one who reads actual science is able to engage with questions about the recent decades of warming of the ocean and why this has been greater than the older models predicted, by visiting here...

Despite 700 years of these natural extreme weather swings, Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh blames recent swings on global warming stating, «This is exactly what state - of - the - art climate models predicted should have happened, and what those models project to intensify in the future as global warming continues.»

One of the most controversial issues emerging from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is the failure of global climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures since 1998.

«Climate models based on recent data can't accurately predict temperatures five years in the future.»

The most recent models incorporate the movement of energy through the ocean oscillation and show a small offset of anthropogenic forcing in the present years, but predict an increase starting this year and moving forward, which looks, at the moment, to be correct.

However, for regional downscaling (and global) models to add value (beyond what is available to the impacts community via the historical, recent paleorecord and a worst case sequence of days), they must be able to skillfully predict changes in regional weather statistics in response to human climate forcings.

But your argument to be able to predict that far out is based on models that did not even foresee the recent temperature hiatus.

If you are to have even the slightest hope of persuading people that they need to take any action, you have to have a rock solid case that you fully understand the recent temperature non-events, can explain convincingly why you didn't foresee and predict it, have taken all the lessons into account in your models and are prepared to be a little more humble and a little less dogmatic about your future predictions.

What Brown and Caldeira have contributed is a look at the large set of climate models that are used for climate forecasting, and which of the set were the most successful at predicting present conditions given conditions in recent times.

One thing claimed is that the long run projections of the climate model runs can't be trusted because the ensemble does not do that great a job of predicting today from recent history of observations.

However, in a nutshell (see their paper for more, and the figure below, taken from that paper), what Brown and Caldeira did was to emphasize the contributions to temperature prediction of the subset of models which are the most skillful at predicting the present based upon recent observations.

Considering the recent evidence that climate models have failed to predict the flattening of the global temperature curve, and that global warming seems to have ended some 15 years ago, the work of the NIPCC is particularly important.»

Climate models have suggested that the Arctic could lose almost all of its summer ice cover by 2100, but in recent years, ice extent has declined faster than the models predicted.

The loud divergence between sea - level reality and climate change theory — the climate models predict an accelerated sea - level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission — has been also evidenced in other works such as Boretti (2012a, b), Boretti and Watson (2012), Douglas (1992), Douglas and Peltier (2002), Fasullo et al. (2016), Jevrejeva et al. (2006), Holgate (2007), Houston and Dean (2011), Mörner 2010a, b, 2016), Mörner and Parker (2013), Scafetta (2014), Wenzel and Schröter (2010) and Wunsch et al. (2007) reporting on the recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea - level rise.

Prof. Judith Curry (another IPCC author) also believes that the failure of the climate models to predict the «pause» in global warming indicates that the IPCC has substantially underestimated the role of natural variability in recent climate change, e.g., see here, here, here or here.

«I think it's naive and presumptuous,» Taylor said, referring to a recent report by the U.S. government warning that computer models predict a dire future for the bears due to projected ice loss...

We have several recent studies based largely on the actual past physical record plus some estimates on natural forcing, which have concluded that 2xCO2 ECS is around half as high as the range previously predicted by model simulations and claimed in AR4.

Moreover the recent decline of the yearly increments d (CO2) / dt acknowledged by Francey et al (2013)(figure 17 - F) and even by James Hansen who say that the Chinese coal emissions have been immensely beneficial to the plants that are now bigger grow faster and eat more CO2 due to the fertilisation of the air (references in note 19) cast some doubts on those compartment models with many adjustable parameters, models proved to be blatantly wrong by observations as said very politely by Wang et al.: (Xuhui Wang et al: A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations, Nature, 2014) «Thus, the problems present models have in reproducing the observed response of the carbon cycle to climate variability on interannual timescales may call into question their ability to predict the future evolution of the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to climate»