Sentences with phrase «recent model simulations»

In the mesopause region, recent model simulations produce trends, usually below 1 K / decade, that appear to be consistent with most observations in this region.

Interestingly, recent model simulations comparing PETM with present conditions forecast higher rates of surface ocean acidification and environmental change in the near future.

Recent model simulations report the total anthropogenic and natural dust DRE, its components and the net effect as follows (shortwave / longwave = net TOA, in W m — 2): H. Liao et al. (2004): — 0.21 / +0.31 = +0.1; Reddy et al. (2005a): — 0.28 / +0.14 = — 0.14; Jacobson (2001a): — 0.20 / +0.07 = — 0.13; reference case and [range] of sensitivity experiments in Myhre and Stordal (2001a, except case 6 and 7): — 0.53 -LSB--- 1.4 to +0.2] / +0.13 [+0.0 to +0.8] = — 0.4 -LSB--- 1.4 to +1.0]; and from AeroCom database models, GISS: — 0.75 / (+0.19) = -LRB--- 0.56); UIO - CTM *: — 0.56 / (+0.19) = -LRB--- 0.37); LSCE *: — 0.6 / +0.3 = — 0.3; UMI *: — 0.54 / (+0.19) = -LRB--- 0.35).

The black line indicates observed temperature change, while the coloured bands show the combined range covered by 90 % of recent model simulations.

If all these forcing factors are taken into account in a recent model simulation, the temperature evolution looks like this:

Not exact matches

In a recent simulation, Chatham House modelled a prospective conflict in the Asia - Pacific between Japan and China.

But it is possible to slow the pace of urban sprawl by harnessing the full development potential of central areas, according to forecasts by Guillaume Marois, a recent Ph.D. from INRS who has developed a spatial microsimulation model called Local Demographic Simulations (LDS).

Next to the mathematical modeling as in the recent study Markus Diesmann and his team therefore work in parallel on the creation of simulation software for the new generation of computers.

Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.

For the earlier generation of models, results are based on the archived output from control runs (specifically, the first 30 years, in the case of temperature, and the first 20 years for the other fields), and for the recent generation models, results are based on the 20th - century simulations with climatological periods selected to correspond with observations.

To do this they used the same model simulations used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report.

We use simulations to test whether the site frequency spectrum, conditioned on a derived Neanderthal and an ancestral Yoruba (African) nucleotide (the doubly conditioned site frequency spectrum [dcfs]-RRB-, can distinguish between models that assume recent admixture or ancient population structure.

The models include a new wind braking law based on recent numerical simulations of magnetized stellar winds and specific dynamo and mass - loss prescriptions a... ▽ More We present new models for the rotational evolution of solar - like stars between 1 Myr and 10 Gyr with the aim to reproduce the distributions of rotational periods observed for star forming regions and young open clusters within this age range.

The models include a new wind braking law based on recent numerical simulations of magnetized stellar winds and specific dynamo and mass - loss prescriptions are adopted to tie angular momentum loss to angular velocity.

See our previous post on the range of model simulations for the recent period — which include a significant number that have similar trends to observed, even while they have the same long term trends.

This is the first of two pieces on the recent IPCC workshop in Hawaii, This brought together independent researchers from all over the world to analyse computer model simulations of the last 150 years and to assess whether they are actually any good.

In a recent paper by Bengtsson & Hodges (2006), simulations with the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model (GCM) were analysed, but they found no increase in the number of mid-latitude storms world - wide.

Meanwhile, modeling results in this area don't lead to definitive conclusions; as the recent WMO statement puts it, «Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate there is low confidence in this projection.

As we have discussed several times elsewhere on this site, studies employing model simulations of the past millennium have been extremely successful in reproducing many of the details evident in paleoclimate reconstructions of this interval as a forced response of the climate to natural (primarly volcanic and solar) and in more recent centuries, anthropogenic, radiative changes.

Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century.

I have the same problem with the global temperature simulations, the most recent measured data (12 years) is not trending as the models predicted.

[Response: Refer to this post (and references therein) for a detailed discussion of how comparisons of proxy - based climate reconstructions with theoretical climate model simulations can inform our assessment of the role of both natural and anthropogenic factors in recent climate change.

Dr. Judith Curry notes «The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2 % confidence level» This means the hypothesis upon which these models have been built is wrong and should be abandoned.

Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.

This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.

In recent years one of the most important methods of estimating probability distributions for key properties of the climate system has been comparison of observations with multiple model simulations, run at varying settings for climate parameters.

In this study, scientists from Georgia Tech, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Columbia University expanded on previous research by combining observational data and model simulations to explore the link between unusually large snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere in recent winters and diminishing Arctic sea ice.

A recent meta - analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on crop yield.

The US CLIVAR Eastern Tropical Oceans Synthesis (ETOS) Working Group was formed to promote collaboration in the southeast oceanic basins, coordinate a model assessment of surface flux errors for the equatorial Atlantic, identify recent model improvements and common and persistent model errors, and provide recommendations of cases for community simulation and evaluation using eddy - permitting ocean models.

Numerous recent studies based on both observations and model simulations indicate that reduced Barents - Kara sea ice in late fall favors a strengthened and northwestward expansion of the Siberian high, increased poleward heat flux, weakened polar vortex, and ultimately a negative AO.

In a recent paper published in Nature Communications, using both observations and a coupled Earth system model (GFDL - ESM2G) with a more realistic simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) structure, and thus reduced mean state biases in the North Atlantic, the authors show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005 — 2015 is associated with a weakening of the AMOC directly observed from the RAPID program.

Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.

A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model.

Possible explanations for these results include the neglect of negative forcings in many of the CMIP - 3 simulations of forced climate change), omission of recent temporal changes in solar and volcanic forcing [Wigley, 2010; Kaufmann et al., 2011; Vernier et al., 2011; Solomon et al., 2011], forcing discontinuities at the «splice points» between CMIP - 3 simulations of 20th and 21st century climate change [Arblaster et al., 2011], model response errors, residual observational errors [Mears et al., 2011b], and an unusual manifestation of natural internal variability in the observations (see Figure 7A).

We have several recent studies based largely on the actual past physical record plus some estimates on natural forcing, which have concluded that 2xCO2 ECS is around half as high as the range previously predicted by model simulations and claimed in AR4.

«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger, cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol emissions is lower.

In a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, scientists analyzed observations and model simulations that show that the recent Syrian drought was implicated in the current conflict.

This internal variability has had a cooling effect on recent surface temperatures (though not of overall global temperatures) which is not captured in the average of the model simulations.

Several recent studies have used simulation models to quantify the potential effects of recent environmental regulations on power plants, including the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), one of the US Environmental Protection Agency's most expensive regulations.

To better understand these discrepancies, a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters investigates the drivers of changes in deep ocean circulation across a range of modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21000 years ago) climate simulations from the latest Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).

While climate contrarians like Richard Lindzen tend to treat the uncertainties associated with clouds and aerosols incorrectly, as we noted in that post, they are correct that these uncertainties preclude a precise estimate of climate sensitivity based solely on recent temperature changes and model simulations of those changes.

This recent shift towards more intense and frequent El Niños is related to the recent increase in dry areas around the world.5 However, past observations and reconstructions of El Niño events from non-instrumental records such as corals show that El Niño events naturally fluctuate in magnitude and frequency over time, and this has been demonstrated in long climate model simulations of past and future climate as well.6

Yet, if we look at recent efforts by the climate simulation community to construct comprehensive Earth System Models, perhaps this question is not so ridiculous after all.

When considered together, the recent results from the growing number of modelling simulations suggest that variations in ion - induced nucleation over both daily and decadal timescales are unable to significantly alter CCN or cloud properties.

This value is also consistent with recent work on the LGM (21), and we use the model version with this sensitivity in our simulations here for simplicity (but see Discussion).

Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large - scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing.

More recent computations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory models bear this out with updated CTM simulations.

We can place this apparent lack of warming in the context of natural climate fluctuations other than ENSO using twenty - first century simulations with the HadCM3 climate model (Gordon et al. 2000), which is typical of those used in the recent IPCC report (AR4; Solomon et al. 2007).

The new position statement is equivocal, beginning with the observation that «the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases», and going on to say «Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS, and AMS.

The climate model simulations also suggest that Earth's climate was in a «typical» greenhouse state, with temperatures similar to more recent, and better understood, greenhouse intervals in Earth's climate history, like the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic eras.