You can accept whatever the future brings or you can consider the risks created
by recent past performance and make adjustments accordingly.
In the February 2016 version of their paper entitled «The Harm in Selecting Funds that Have Recently Outperformed», Bradford Cornell, Jason Hsu and David Nanigian investigate future mutual fund performance based
on recent past performance relative to stated benchmarks.
And resisting the urge to re-allocate either to
hot recent past performance or away from recent cold past performance will lead to better long term performance.
The recent past performance of growth managers tends to beat that of value managers.
Selecting a stock based on a high P / E ratio is clearly different than selecting one based on
its recent past performance.
d)
The recent past performance of growth managers tends to beat that of value managers.
The authors examined if fund attributes such as expense ratios, portfolio turnover, manager tenure,
recent past performance, fund size and the Morningstar mutual fund ratings can predict performance.
They generally look at the most recent 1, 3 and 5 and sometimes 10 - year returns and assume that
recent past performance will persist.