Are
recent sea level rise rates similar to those 80 years ago?
Not exact matches
A
recent study (pdf) estimated that at the current
rate of global warming, Manhattan will face a
sea level rise of 2 feet or more by 2080.
Dr John Church of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research added: «The most
recent research showed that
sea level is
rising by 3 mm a year since 1993, a
rate well above the 20th century average.»
Compared to the data on
sea level rise through 1990, the more
recent rate of
rise is far steeper than earlier research had suggested.
There are some painful, and even dire, concerns expressed about the potential that Greenland ice sheets could be «entirely lost» if emissions continue at a business - as - usual pace; about the
rate of
sea -
level rise increasing «faster and faster with time»; and about the planet's ice sheets likely becoming «more active» over coming decades than they have been over
recent decades.
From
recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the
rate of
sea -
level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
One problem is that if the ocean has lost heat at the suggested
rate, then the thermal exapansion part of
recent sea level rise should have decreased (i.e.
sea level should have dropped).
The opening section, consistent with statements from the church in
recent months, makes clear that Francis's main focus is not on parts per million of carbon dioxide or
rates of
sea level rise.
According to this, the
recent rate of
sea level rise is greater than its average value since 1930.
Then the suggestion that
recent La Nina's have caused the
rate of
sea level rise to decrease in the
recent past.
The reasonable agreement in
recent years between the observed
rate of
sea level rise and the sum of thermal expansion and loss of land ice suggests an upper limit for the magnitude of change in land - based water storage, which is relatively poorly known.
The
recent rate of
sea level rise is greater than its average value since 1930.
Projections for global
sea level rise by 2100 range from 8 inches to 6.6 feet above 1992
levels, though the lowest end of this range is a simple extension of historic
sea level rise — and
recent data indicate this
rate has nearly doubled in
recent years.
Recent estimates suggest that globally, human groundwater extraction currently exceeds
rates of water capture from dam building, so that groundwater depletion is now accelerating
sea level rise.)
For instance, I linked to several studies confirming that
recent sea level rises are occuring at a faster
rate than that in the past, including studies of the Mediterranean.
The box in the lower right shows that the
rates of
sea level rise in the most
recent period (red bars) are the highest in the whole 20th and the start of 21st century.
Curry also argues that the
rate of
sea level rise during 1930 — 1950 was similar to that in
recent years, according to the IPCC, which suggests that ocean heat content was increasing at a similar
rate to today.
Recent evidence of faster rates of global sea - level rise suggests that these projections may be too low.3, 4,5 Given recent accelerated shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets, scientists now think that a rise of 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is plausible — and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible though less lik
Recent evidence of faster
rates of global
sea -
level rise suggests that these projections may be too low.3, 4,5 Given
recent accelerated shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets, scientists now think that a rise of 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is plausible — and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible though less lik
recent accelerated shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets, scientists now think that a
rise of 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is plausible — and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible though less likely.16
Sea level rise is tied to warming and non-anthropogenic factors can influence the
rate of warming, even if anthropogenic factors are the dominant cause of
recent warming.
Three
recent journal articles examine the
rate of
sea level rise and the ability of models to accurately simulate
sea level rise at a global and regional scale.
For reference, the
recent rate of global
sea level rise is 3 mm / yr.
With the
recent decline in solar flux and the shift to cool phases of ocean oscillations, natural climate change suggests that although glacier retreat and
sea level rise will likely continue over the next few decades, the
rates of
sea level rise and glacier retreats will slow down.The next decade will provide the natural experiment to test the validity of competing hypotheses.
The average
rate of
sea -
level rise in the 20th century was 15 cm / century, but in the quarter - century since 1990 it has been 30 cm / century and is showing signs of further acceleration in more
recent measurements.
The extra heat in the ocean has caused the
sea level to
rise 15 mm since November 2014, much faster than the
rate of 3 - 3.5 mm per year over
recent decades.
The loud divergence between
sea -
level reality and climate change theory — the climate models predict an accelerated
sea -
level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission — has been also evidenced in other works such as Boretti (2012a, b), Boretti and Watson (2012), Douglas (1992), Douglas and Peltier (2002), Fasullo et al. (2016), Jevrejeva et al. (2006), Holgate (2007), Houston and Dean (2011), Mörner 2010a, b, 2016), Mörner and Parker (2013), Scafetta (2014), Wenzel and Schröter (2010) and Wunsch et al. (2007) reporting on the
recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the
rate of
sea -
level rise.
You are aware the
sea level rise has not altered for decades (
rate of change) and whilst it is a positive trend it remains fairly constant and has in fact slowed in
recent years?
This coincides with post-1970s global warming, as expected, given point 1: «New estimate of the current
rate of
sea level rise from a
sea level budget approach» «
Recent global
sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?»
Combining Zwally's calculations with
recent evidence from Greenland,
sea level models driven by global warming should reveal a decreasing
rate of
sea level rise.
Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact
sea -
level rise as climate changes, but
recent rates have been uncertain.
Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact
sea -
level rise as climate changes, but
recent rates have been uncertain.
«Second, in contrast to the previously reported slowing in the
rate during the past two decades1, our corrected GMSL data set indicates an acceleration in
sea -
level rise (independent of the VLM used), which is of opposite sign to previous estimates and comparable to the accelerated loss of ice from Greenland and to
recent projections, and larger than the twentieth - century acceleration.
The authors further note that «Estimates of
recent rates of global
sea level rise (GSLR) vary considerably» noting that many scientists have calculated
rates of 1.5 to 2.0 mm per year over the 20th century.
Kolker and Hameed begin their article stating «Determining the
rate of global
sea level rise (GSLR) during the past century is critical to understanding
recent changes to the global climate system.
The G refers to global, thus the MEAN global T must
rise, the mean
sea ice extent must decrease, global
sea level trend must increase, global tornadoes must
rise, global floods must increase, the
rate of global
sea riseust
rise, and all the global change MUST be catastrophic, and clearly outside of
recent past global flux.
Records for a more
recent, 40 - year period, beginning in 1970, revealed faster
rates of
sea -
level rise both globally and for this stretch of the U.S. East Coast.
The
rate of
sea -
level rise has continued to increase in
recent decades:
Recent research has shown that the major ice sheets (those of Greenland and Antarctica, which contain 23 feet and 197 feet of
sea -
level rise, respectively) are shrinking at a faster
rate than they were a decade ago.
Per a
recent paper by Fasullo et al, «In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the
rate of
sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era.»
During the 1958 to 2014 period, when CO2 emissions
rose dramatically, a
recent analysis revealed that the
rate of
sea level rise slowed to between 1.3 mm / yr to 1.5 mm / yr, or just 0.14 of a meter per century.
Hansen and Sato (7) argue that the climate of the most
recent few decades is probably warmer than prior Holocene
levels, based on the fact that the major ice sheets in both hemispheres are presently losing mass rapidly (9) and global
sea level is
rising at a
rate of more than 3 m / millennium (25), which is much greater than the slow
rate of
sea level change (less than 1 m / millennium) in the latter half of the Holocene (26).
If the
rate of
sea level rise over the last 20 years is as high or higher than it ever has been over the last 114 year (and is twice the 20th century average), then does this not strongly suggest that there has been no
recent slowdown at all in the
rate of accumulation of heat by the oceans and cryosphere?
However,
recent observations of the
rate and severity of physical and ecological responses to escalating radiative forcing — melting glaciers and ice sheets resulting in
sea level rise and major changes in weather patterns, prolonged droughts, more frequent hurricanes and storms, and so on — are surprising even top climate experts, and raising awareness that, as a nation, we are dangerously unprepared for the inevitable consequences.