As described above, I think (just like Trenberth) that natural variability, in particular ENSO and PDO, is the main reason
the recent slower warming.
The recent slower warming is mainly explained by the fact that in recent years the La Niña state in the tropical Pacific prevailed, in which the eastern Pacific is cold and the ocean stores more heat (2).
This recent slower warming in the upper ocean is closely related to the slower warming of the global surface temperature, because the temperature of the overlaying atmosphere is strongly coupled to the temperature of the ocean surface.
Not exact matches
Now, research suggests that for the past decade, such stratospheric aerosols — injected into the atmosphere by either
recent volcanic eruptions or human activities such as coal burning — are
slowing down global
warming.
The findings show a slight but notable increase in that average temperature, putting a dent in the idea that global
warming has
slowed over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted in the most
recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
A
recent slowdown in the upward march of global temperatures is likely to be the result of the
slow warming of the deep oceans, British scientists said on Monday.
Slowed Warming Zeke Hausfather, a data analyst at the Berkeley Earth project, has filed «Examining the
Recent Slowdown in Global
Warming» at the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a
recent NASA publication concluding that deep ocean temperatures have not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science of climate change, it is the latest in a series of findings that show global
warming to have
slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
So, we might have been past the
warmest period of this most
recent interglacial, and beginning a
slow, multi-thousand year descent into a new ice age — until we changed the atmospheric composition.
i'm trying to figure out if this
recent slowing - down of
warming could be because all the forcings are negative (except, obviously co2).
David Appell has filed a thorough survey of research and scientists» views on
recent temperature fluctuations and climate sensitivity at Yale Climate Media Forum — «W [h] ither Global
Warming: Has it
Slowed Down?»
Recent studies including an assessment by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization indicate that it's possible to
slow the pace of
warming and melting in the Arctic in the near term by reducing emissions of two common climate pollutants: black carbon and methane, both of which are emitted from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels.
Recent scientific studies, including an assessment by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization indicate that it's possible to
slow the pace of
warming and melting in the Arctic in the near term by reducing emissions of two common air pollutants, soot and smog.
If blister rust can be regarded as a steadily, if
slow - moving, disaster for whitebark pine, the relatively dramatic and sudden attack of mountain pine beetles can be regarded as a biological firestorm, fueled by global
warming, experts at a
recent workshop sponsored by the Natural Resources Defense Council said.
For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide grew by approximately 30 % during the transition from the most
recent cold glacial period, about 20,000 years ago, to the current
warm interglacial period; the corresponding rate of decrease in surface ocean pH, driven by geological processes, was approximately 50 times
slower than the current rate driven largely by fossil fuel burning.
The
recent IPCC report has highlighted that India's high vulnerability and exposure to climate change and global
warming will
slow its economic growth, impact human health, and make poverty reduction and food security efforts more difficult.
So far there's no sign of the
recent period of multi-decadal
warming slowing down http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1970/to:2000/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1970/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1970/trend
DK12 used ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has
slowed in
recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the
recent OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of global
warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
The best evidence in support of that proposition of
slow long term solar background changes is the gradual and irregular change from Roman
Warm period to The Dark Ages to the Mediaeval
Warm Period and thence to the Little Ice Age and finally to our
recent Modern Maximum.
While the
warming of global surface temperatures in
recent years has
slowed in large part due to the more efficient heat transfer to the deep oceans, that can't last forever.
And they analyse the double standards used when discussing the so - called «pause» as compared to an equally long period of rapid
warming, which in fact deviated more from the long - term trend than the
recent phase of
slower warming.
Coinciding with cycles of reduced sea ice, glaciers on the island Novaya Zemlya in the Barents Sea, also underwent their greatest retreat around 1920 to 1940.61 After several decades of stability, its tidewater glaciers began retreating again around the year 2000, but at a rate five times
slower than the 1930s.47 The
recent cycle of intruding
warm Atlantic water45 is now waning and if solar flux remains low, we should expect Arctic sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas to begin a recovery and Arctic glaciers to stabilize within the next 15 years.
There is no statistical evidence of a
recent slow - down of global
warming, nor is there evidence of accelerated
warming since the mid-20th century.
However, another important
recent paper by Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way showed that the global surface temperature rise has not
slowed as much as some previously thought; in fact, the surface
warming since 1997 happened more than twice as fast as previous estimates.»
But what this new paper shows is that the
warming in the
recent years has not stopped and has not even
slowed down.
The
slow rate of
warming of the
recent past is consistent with the kind of variability that some of us predicted nearly a decade ago.
Its most
recent article, by Professor Judith Curry, concludes that the ostensibly
slowed rate of
recent warming gives us «more time to find ways to decarbonise the economy affordably.»
Nuccitelli et al. (2012) considered the
warming of the oceans (both shallow and deep), land, atmosphere, and ice, and showed that global
warming has not
slowed in
recent years (Figure 3).
But even taking these into account, there is no doubt that «going nuclear» would result in a
slower increase in CO2 concentrations, maybe by as much as 80 ppmv by 2100, which translates into averted
warming of around 0.6 C at the arguably exaggerated IPCC AR4 2xCO2 ECS of 3.2 C (or half this amount at the more
recent estimates for ECS).
The suggestion that
recent warming is anthropogenic due to divergence from a simple 60/20 year curve fit over a mere 100 years ignores prior divergence from both competing models of distantly past temperature, one being a hockey stick that shows a
slow decline instead of incline prior 1850 and the other showing two similar «non-cyclical» spikes in the Roman and medieval periods.
Using the same methodology as the vaunted «97 percent» paper by researcher John Cook, two climate scientists have made a bold discovery: virtually all climate scientists agree that global
warming has «stopped» or «
slowed down» in
recent years.
«We didn't find a single paper on the topic that argued the rate of global
warming has not
slowed (or even stopped) in
recent years,» wrote scientists Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger with the libertarian Cato Institute.
While the IPCC reports of 2007 were praised for their recognition of the causes of global
warming, the
slow, consensus - based nature of the process, meant more
recent data was not included.
Rates peaked more than 10 times faster in Meltwater Pulse 1A during the
warming from the most
recent ice age, a time with more ice on the planet to contribute to the sealevel rise, but
slower forcing than the human - caused rise in CO2 (Figure 2.5 and 2.6).
The most
recent trough in solar activity likely plays a role in depressing short - term trends, and the overall decline in total solar irradiance (TSI) in
recent years relative to past solar cycles may be a small contributing factor in the current
slow - down in the rate of
warming.
The selected sample ends just before the
recent period of
slowed warming.
«
Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global
warming could lead to a relatively abrupt
slowing of the ocean's thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world's food production.
There have been attempts in the scientific literature to correct some misconceptions, such as a myth regarding an alleged
recent «
slow - down» in global
warming, a so - called hiatus.
The relatively chilly temperatures compared with
recent years are not evidence that global
warming is
slowing however, say climate scientists at the Met Office.
-- You will have to acknowledge that the
recent slow - down in
warming is consistent with natural variability.
The
recent slow down in global
warming has been attributed to a number of factors, including excess heat being stored in the deep ocean and reductions of certain greenhouse gases.
Further,
recent studies reveal that «rich nations are
warming at a
slower rate than poor nations ``, such a scenario is not possible without global covert climate intervention programs.
Both articles are based on peer reviewed published papers that suggest volcanic aerosols have played a part in the
recent slow down of atmospheric
warming.
Similarly, Guemas et al. (2013) concluded that most of the
recent slowed surface
warming can be attributed to the increased accumulation of heat in the oceans.
A partial reduction «in the assumed model sensitivity to radiative forcing,» would at least be a correction in the right direction, as Hans von Storch schools us on the matter (i.e., itwould reproduce the
recent global
warming slow down while still satisfying... other major constraints.).
The underlying net anthropogenic
warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07 — 0.08 °C / decade, with superimposed AMO - related ups and downs that included the early 20th century
warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated
warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the
recent slowing of the
warming rates.
Lizza's piece is partly a profile of Steyer and his potential political ambitions, but it is a thorough telling of the
recent history of the climate movement and how the Keystone pipeline became a test of President Obama's commitment to moving the US away from fossil fuels in order to
slow global
warming.
Hansen and Sato (7) argue that the climate of the most
recent few decades is probably
warmer than prior Holocene levels, based on the fact that the major ice sheets in both hemispheres are presently losing mass rapidly (9) and global sea level is rising at a rate of more than 3 m / millennium (25), which is much greater than the
slow rate of sea level change (less than 1 m / millennium) in the latter half of the Holocene (26).
For one of many good demonstrations that the
recent slowdown (which, importantly, is «
slow» only relative to immediately preceding «fast»
warming — that's a hint for you) in no way is evidence against the continuing long term trend, see climate statistician Tamino's
recent post «Slowdown Skeptic,» and «It's the Trend, Stupid,» and «Is Earth's Temperature About to Soar?»
Recent standards from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will substantially reduce leakage from natural gas systems, but to help
slow the rate of global
warming and improve air quality, further action by states and EPA should directly address fugitive methane from new and existing wells and equipment.