You'll notice that
recent valuation extremes actually moved beyond the 1929 and 2000 peaks.
Not exact matches
That's the one signal that has been favorable during most of the
recent advance, and it is why, despite
extreme valuations, I left as much as 20 % of our stocks unhedged until the interest rate climate turned hostile a couple of weeks ago.
It's important to distinguish between the level of
valuations, which has indeed become breathtakingly
extreme in
recent years, and the mapping between
valuations and longer - term market returns (which we observe as a correspondence, where rich
valuations are followed by poor returns and depressed
valuations are followed by elevated returns).
I've noted before that while the bubble peak in 2000 was the most
extreme level of
valuation in history on a capitalization - weighted basis, the
recent speculative episode has actually exceeded that bubble from the standpoint of speculation in individual stocks.
With
valuations extreme, interest rates rising, and market action now strongly unfavorable, the characteristics which were present during the vast majority of the
recent bull market are now completely absent.