Remember a few of the things the committee values: record vs. committee - ranked teams,
record against bowl - eligible teams, and whatever vague sense of qualitative analysis the committee decides to articulate at any point.
Not exact matches
Compared to Bama, the Badgers won a division, have more wins, were roughly as dominant all year, have just one fewer win over
bowl teams, and have the same
record against top - 10 teams.
While betting
against Bielema in a
bowl game is scary given his strong track
record, I do not believe Arkansas has the juice.
The West then tacked on an 11 - 4
record against the SEC East on its way into the
bowls.
In fact, VT needed to win their
bowl game
against Cincinnati just to finish with a winning
record.
This trend is magnified during
bowl season with unranked teams holding a 39 - 25 ATS
record (+11.91 units, 18.6 % ROI)
against ranked teams.
Though LSU is 2 - 5 ATS over its last seven
against teams with winning
records and 1 - 4 ATS over its last five games as a favorite, the Tigers have fared well at the sportsbook in their recent
bowl games.
Spread betting trends (all
records are
against the spread): Kansas State is 3 - 11 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 0 - 4 in
bowls.