Though nearly every morning prompts the phrase «Yup, they're actually going to do this again,» the steepening pitch of this ascent — coupled with
record valuation extremes, record overbought extremes, and the most lopsided bullish sentiment in over three decades — now produces the most extreme «overvalued, overbought, overbullish» moment in history.
Not exact matches
The result is the most
extreme level of equity market
valuation on
record.
Our own concern about elevated profit margins is not that earnings will be weak over the completion of the current cycle (though that increasingly appears likely), but that investors are using historically
extreme profit margins and
record earnings as if they are completely representative of decades and decades of future earnings, and are using those earnings figures as a sufficient statistic for
valuation.
The S&P 500 registered a
record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the
valuation peaks set at every cyclical
extreme in history but 2000 on the S&P 500 (across all stocks, current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA multiples already exceed the 2000
extreme).
Well, revenue growth would contribute 4 % annually if the price / revenue ratio was to remain at
record extremes, but otherwise, we've also got to consider the effect of the change in
valuations.