By modeling the observed changes in drought recovery times with «business as usual» circumstances for future conditions, meaning assuming greenhouse gas emission trends continued as they have, the researchers were able to predict the future
recovery times of droughts.
Not exact matches
«The
recovery of South Africa from
drought conditions may take some
time, depending on rainfall and temperature conditions over the coming spring through summer 2016/17 season,» it added.
The subsequent rebuilding
of livestock numbers takes
time, so
recoveries of livestock - related production from
drought are generally more protracted than those for crop production.
The findings suggest that more
of the Earth's land surface is being affected by
drought now than it was a century ago and that
recovery times are getting longer.
Global map
of average
drought recovery times (in months) for 1901 - 2010.
«If
droughts become more frequent, as expected, the
time between
droughts may become shorter than
drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation
of the land carbon sink.»
The frequency and severity
of droughts are only expected to increase, Anderegg says, and once climate models take
recovery time into account, we may find that future forests will harbor even less carbon than current models predict.
The research, published in Nature, maps how much
of the Earth's vegetation is recovering after a
drought and how
recovery times have changed since 1901.
Additionally the researchers note that the
drought frequency paired with longer
recovery time could lead to tree death and thus a lowered ability
of the region to absorb carbon from the atmosphere, further increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.
The discoveries
of the study were made by first examining the
drought recovery times of various regions around the world.
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Time resolution on the scale of a year or two can be obtained from semi-fossil trees, e.g., Roig et al (2001) have a 1229 - year - long stretch of tree - ring widths from the middle of the last ice age at 40 ° S that shows abrupt droughts with abrupt recoveries (tenfold changes in yearly accumulation), but they are floating in absolute time and such local records can not yet be matched to events in the ice - core reco
Time resolution on the scale
of a year or two can be obtained from semi-fossil trees, e.g., Roig et al (2001) have a 1229 - year - long stretch
of tree - ring widths from the middle
of the last ice age at 40 ° S that shows abrupt
droughts with abrupt
recoveries (tenfold changes in yearly accumulation), but they are floating in absolute
time and such local records can not yet be matched to events in the ice - core reco
time and such local records can not yet be matched to events in the ice - core records.