Doing so, I think, would
reduce the model uncertainty.
The use of ensemble modeling framework enabled to
reduce modeling uncertainty and present the local variation of the processes at unprecedented fine spatial resolution.
Not exact matches
Candler's speech program was organized around a «linear - transmissions»
model which arises from information theory, which can be stated as follows: «The essential feature of all messages is information, and people use the information in messages to
reduce uncertainty and thereby adapt to the environment».
Reducing uncertainties in the
models could lead to better long - term assessments of climate, Esposito says.
Further refinements in brown dwarf
models should soon
reduce that
uncertainty, he says.
By improving the understanding of how much radiation CO2 absorbs,
uncertainties in
modelling climate change will be
reduced and more accurate predictions can be made about how much Earth is likely to warm over the next few decades.
«A cloud system - resolved
model can
reduce one of the greatest
uncertainties in climate
models, by improving the way we treat clouds,» Wehner said.
A new integrated climate
model developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and other institutions is designed to
reduce uncertainties in future climate predictions as it bridges Earth systems with energy and economic
models and large - scale human impact data.
A new integrated computational climate
model developed to
reduce uncertainties in future climate predictions marks the first successful attempt to bridge Earth systems with energy and economic
models and large - scale human impact data.
By providing new data on how CO2 cycles through land and ocean plants, HIPPO will allow researchers to improve the accuracy of their climate
models and
reduce that
uncertainty, Stephens said.
PNNL researchers play a key role in
reducing uncertainty through improved process understanding and
modeling of climate processes such as clouds and aerosols.
Understanding how well climate
models represent these processes will help
reduce uncertainties in the
model projections of the effects of global warming on the world's water cycle.
But Bowman believes the team has taken the necessary steps — such as
reducing and
modeling their
uncertainties and calibrating their instruments properly — to be confident their measurement is actually a link to the distant past.
By linking imaging methods to rock physics, and by discovering, understanding and
modelling relations to other geological data, we will
reduce the
uncertainty associated with exploration through cover.
As climate
models become increasingly complex, it becomes extremely challenging to
reduce uncertainty.
Scientific knowledge input into process based
models has much improved,
reducing uncertainty of known science for some components of sea - level rise (e.g. steric changes), but when considering other components (e.g. ice melt from ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution) science is still emerging, and
uncertainties remain high.
If we can get climate
models to more credibly simulate current cloud patterns and observed cloud changes, this might
reduce the
uncertainty in future projections
And although there is a midsize Alfa crossover apparently coming in the first quarter of 2017 (nine months behind schedule),
reduced R&D spending because of «
uncertainties» in China and a desire to focus on Jeep products have slightly derailed the brand's plans for eight new
models by 2018.
Available on all
models, Pro Backup Trailer Assist
reduces uncertainty when parking a tandem trailer or camper.
[Response: If you screen the
models to have surface trends similar to that observed, you do
reduce the tropospheric range of responses, but error bars still overlap with the
uncertainty in the obs.
This greatly
reduces the
uncertainty in the overall radiosonde mean, and implies that the
model uncertainty dominates in the calculation of (sigma - means).
In their rejoinder MW claim they didn't agree with
reducing the data set to 59 as follows: «the application of ad hoc methods to screen and exclude data increases
model uncertainty in ways that are unmeasurable and uncorrectable.»
The work of Schmittner et al. demonstrates that climates of the past can provide potentially powerful information to
reduce uncertainty in future climate predictions and evaluate the likelihood of climate change that is larger than captured in present
models.
It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long - term observations and coupled climate
modeling, would contribute to substantially
reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.
I was wondering for some time now, how much the findings of the work of scientists, be it the IPCC, be it the PIK in Potsdam or what have you, can be taken for granted in order for policy makers to make valuable decisions (e.g. cutting carbon emissions by half by 2050) and if the
uncertainties in the
models might outweigh certain decisions to
reduce carbon emissions so that in the end it might happen that these
uncertainties make these decisions obsolete, because they do not suffice to avoid «dangerous climate change»?
New understanding on the essential mechanisms and simple analytical
models can help us to
reduce the
uncertainty on cloud responses and feedbacks.
To
reduce uncertainties in climate - change projections, it is essential to prioritize the improvement of the most important uncertain physical processes in climate
models.
Although the age
model gives some
uncertainty in the timings, it appears that storminess increased at the onset and close of North Atlantic cold events associated with oceanic changes, with
reduced storm activity at their peak.
The global Aerosol
Model Intercomparison project, AeroCom, has also been initiated in order to improve understanding of uncertainties of model estimates, and to reduce them (Kinne et al., 2
Model Intercomparison project, AeroCom, has also been initiated in order to improve understanding of
uncertainties of
model estimates, and to reduce them (Kinne et al., 2
model estimates, and to
reduce them (Kinne et al., 2003).
In other words, the analysis neglects structural
uncertainty about the adequacy of the assumed linear
model, and the parameter
uncertainty the analysis does take into account is strongly
reduced by
models that are «bad» by this
model - data mismatch metric.
reduce uncertainties of fossil coral reconstructions by replication studies and numerical
modeling.
Climate predictions do not depend exclusively on
models, but the
models reduce the levels of quantitative
uncertainty.
I agree that the application of higher resolution
model equipment does not help to
reduce the
uncertainty range of the sea level in the Amsterdam harbours: assumptions about changes in the heat storage, icecap melting and changes in the gravity field dominate this
uncertainty range (although some regiona features related to oceanic circulation and heat redistribution may be better resolved in higher resolution
models).
Improving the scientific understanding of all climate feedbacks is critical to
reducing the
uncertainty in
modeling the consequences of doubling the CO2 - equivalent concentration.
•
Reduce uncertainty, make ever more complex
models • Tools: quantification, Monte Carlo, Bayesian belief networks
As regional
modeling gains skill it should be able to
reduce uncertainty and direct resources in a more focused way on those assets at greatest risk of loss, but no matter what the level of skill, the information they provide should not be ignored!
Over decades, improvements in observations of the present climate, reconstructions of ancient climate, and computer
models that simulate past, current, and future climate have
reduced some of the
uncertainty in forecasting how rising temperatures will ripple through the climate system.
Leaving aside the possibility of sampling issues (we have to acknowledge that the number of
model contributions is small), it is encouraging first to note that the
uncertainty relative to both initial conditions / atmospheric forcing are systematically
reduced as time goes by.
This general approach has been used before, for other aspects of climate system
models, and has often significantly
reduced overall
uncertainty.
Innovative new approaches to climate data analysis, continued improvements in climate
modeling, and instigation and maintenance of reference quality observation networks such as the U.S. Climate Reference Network (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/) all have the potential to
reduce uncertainties.
If the forcing
uncertainty could be
reduced by 1/2, most of the
model diagnosed sensitivity values would (I think) be clearly much too high.
The optimal decision making
model works in the following way: more research
reduces uncertainty, which builds a scientific and political consensus that results in meaningful action.
Computer
models (hansen's particularly for IPCC) are also used to
reduce the
uncertainty in the energy budget items.
In fairness, there remains considerable
uncertainty in aerosol effects, but if there will be real progress in narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from
reducing the still too wide
uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate
models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effects.
Reducing these
uncertainties by improving
models of the processes that cause ice sheets to lose mass is, therefore, a critical goal of Earth Science research.
The Process Study and
Model Improvement (PSMI) Panel's mission is to
reduce uncertainties in the general circulation
models used for climate variability prediction and climate change projections through an improved understanding and representation of the physical processes governing climate and its variation.
Knowing that the spread in ECS is mostly related to
uncertainties in low - cloud feedback, it seems obvious that constraining how low clouds respond to global warming can
reduce the spread of climate sensitivity among
models.
«
Reducing the wide range of
uncertainty inherent in current
model predictions of global climate change will require major advances in understanding and
modeling of both (1) the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and (2) the so - called «feedbacks» that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in greenhouse gases.»
And beyond the post-facto
model evaluation, it will be interesting to see whether new climate
models will take advantage of emergent constraints to improve their simulation of present - day climate and to
reduce uncertainties in future projections.
The Stadium Wave is actually a useful
model (via the LOD measure) and allows us to
reduce the
uncertainty in the attribution of the atmospheric CO2 concentration to the current global temperature rise.