As the draft rule stands, EPA asks states to achieve a specific average
reduction in their emissions rate for the years 2020 through 2029.
The reason for a reduced CO2 rate of rise was probably not due to
a reduction in emission rates, but it may have reflected carbon cycle feedbacks that slightly altered the balance between atmospheric CO2 and terrestrial and oceanic sinks.
If the growth rate is brought to zero linearly over the next 15 years, the Chinese emission rate curve looks like the lower (blue) curve and would have lower cumulative emissions than the abrupt scenario even if there are
no reductions in emission rate beyond 2030.
AK, to me a reduction of CO2 levels is much less likely than a significant
reduction in the emission rate of CO2, which is already unlikely in the near future.
Not exact matches
For example, they write, a 30 percent
reduction in deforestation
rates as seen
in the Brazilian Amazon between 2005 and 2010 only cut carbon
emissions over the same time period by 10 percent.
They considered scenarios of either unchecked greenhouse gas
emissions or a global
reduction in the
rate of
emissions growth.
Lower
rates of asthma and other health problems are frequently cited as benefits of policies aimed at cutting carbon
emissions from sources like power plants and vehicles, because these policies also lead to
reductions in other harmful types of air pollution.
The center's director, Charles Komanoff, noted the plan does not specify the
rate of increase, and that the $ 5 - per - ton annual increase is actually «a little slow,»
in terms of achieving rapid
emissions reductions.
Added Supekar, «The year - on - year
emission reduction rate in such dramatic technology turnovers will exceed 5 percent after about 2020, which makes the 70 - percent target infeasible for all practical purposes.»
Results from the study showed indicated that with carbon taxes set at $ 50 per ton and increased at a
rate of 5 % per year would lead to a
reduction in the total greenhouse gas
emission in the US by as much as 63 %, confirms Reilly.
Reductions in emissions from deforestation,
in particular
in the Amazon, have made a major contribution to global efforts to control global warming; since 2005 the Amazon has seen its deforestation
rate drop 77 % below the historic average.
If we assume only 50 GtC reforestation, and begin
emissions reduction in 2013, the required
reduction rate becomes about 9 % / year.
(That would mean that a 50 %
reduction in CO2
emissions would have no effect on the
rate of growth of atmospheric CO2).
As is, we're already beating the
rate of
reduction in CO2
emissions of those Countries taken together where the Kyoto Protocols have been tried.
Far from «greenwashing,» these offset buyers — which include major consumer - facing brands such as Coca - Cola, Toyota, Delta Air Lines, Clorox, Sony, and many others — invest
in direct
emissions reductions activities such as energy efficiency and low - carbon product design at a higher
rate than companies that don't offset.
Reductions in America's GHG
emissions which might achieve a measurable slowdown
in the
rate of rise of the Keeling Curve are not currently a part of the President's climate action plan.
Each individual coal plant, for example, can choose to meet the applicable
emission rate limit (set
in pounds of CO2 per megawatt - hour of electricity generated) by reducing its own
emission rate or by acquiring
emission reduction credits.
This is weaker than the EU's target of a 40 %
reduction in emissions by 2030 on 1990 levels, and the US target of a 26 - 28 %
reduction in emissions by 2025 on 2005 levels — although Jonathan Grant, head of sustainability and climate change at PwC, suggests Japan does need to decarbonise at a slightly faster
rate than the EU and the US to hit its target.
Scenario B called for a
reduction in CO2
emissions growth
rate (to 1.0 %
in 1990, 0.5 %
in 2000 and 0.0 %
in 2010).
In reality, an eight year delay on climate action would be accompanied by cuts to renewable energy research that could in turn harm emissions reductions rate
In reality, an eight year delay on climate action would be accompanied by cuts to renewable energy research that could
in turn harm emissions reductions rate
in turn harm
emissions reductions rates.
If global greenhouse gas
emissions peaked
in 2010 the annual
emissions reduction rate necessary to stabilize atmospheric carbon at 450 ppm, the Stern Review suggests, would be 7 percent, with
emissions dropping by about 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2050.
The team calculates that if
emissions»
reductions began today, they would need to occur at the
rate of 6 percent per year (whereas if they had started
in 2005, they would only have needed to be 3.5 percent per year) to keep the global temperature within about 1 - 1.5 degrees Celsius of preindustrial levels.
However, a clear understanding of how national
emissions reductions commitments affect global climate change impacts requires an understanding of complex relationships between atmospheric ghg concentrations, likely global temperature changes
in response to ghg atmospheric concentrations,
rates of ghg
emissions reductions over time and all of this requires making assumptions about how much CO2 from
emissions will remain
in the atmosphere, how sensitive the global climate change is to atmospheric ghg concentrations, and when the international community begins to get on a serious
emissions reduction pathway guided by equity considerations.
This chart uses historical GHG
emissions data and the targets and timetables
in submitted pre-2020 pledges (for 2020
reductions) and INDCs to estimate the average annual change
in emissions (decarbonization
rate) from 2020 - 2030.
The figure below shows how the
rate of
reduction varies based on peak year, adding
in the new estimated 2017
emissions.
Although a
reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions from ships is forecasted over time, the
rate of these
reductions has to be increased so that the aggregate
emissions from international shipping can be controlled.
Alarmingly, at current
rates of
reductions in SO2 aerosol
emissions, the «2 degree C limit» will be reached
in less than 20 years..
A linear
reduction rate would be very rapid, erasing a year's
emissions in two years.
The estimated technical potential of
emission reductions using the MSU - EPRI methodology to reduce fertilizer
rate in eligible NCR corn crops is six million metric tons of CO2e per year.
Landfill methane
emission rates are estimated using the first - order decay method recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
in order to estimate both total
emissions reductions for landfill gas - to - electricity generation and an increase
in landfill gas flaring.
It could be argued that a society capable of achieving the kind of
rates of
emission reduction in the year 2100 that are assumed under these pathways would almost certainly be able to convert a static
emissions floor into a decaying one if it were necessary to do so.
The enormous increase
in the magnitude of the challenge that has been caused by delay given the limited carbon budget can be seen from a recent statement of Jim Hansen who said that «the required
rate of
emissions reduction would have been about 3.5 % per year if
reductions had started
in 2005 and continued annually thereafter, while the required
rate of
reduction, if commenced
in 2020, will be approximately 15 % per year.
If each nation had to reduce their ghg
emissions only to conform to the
rates described
in the
reduction curves
in the above chart despite their steepness, it would lead to grossly unfair results because of great differences among countries
in per capita and historical
emissions levels and urgent needs to increase energy consumption to escape grinding poverty
in poor developing countries.
The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment of climate change science concluded that large
reductions in the
emissions of greenhouse gases, principally CO2, are needed soon to slow the increase of atmospheric concentrations, and avoid reaching unacceptable levels.However, climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2
emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at
rates much faster than predicted, and the rise
in the sea level has become more rapid.
I would further add that since natural uptake is pulling half of CO2
emissions out of the atmosphere, even a 25 %
reduction in CO2
emissions cuts
in half the
rate of climb of CO2, greatly lengthening our time and hence our options.
(4) What
reduction rates in post-peak
emissions is it reasonable to consider?
with its highly optimistic assumptions about the future availability of renewables, nuclear, and CCS, the mid-century carbon
emission reduction goal could only be achieved if the annual growth
in GDP per capita between now and 2050 were to slow to a
rate of 1 % per year.
Even with optimistic assumption about the peak year for global
emissions and
rates of
emissions reductions thereafter, the best estimate is for warming to reach 4 °C
in the 2070s or 2080s, well within the life - spans of children born today.
Reductions of these pollutants will limit the rate of short - term warming, and when sustained and combined with reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, they help to limit long - term warming, which is the ultimate aim of closing the emis
Reductions of these pollutants will limit the
rate of short - term warming, and when sustained and combined with
reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, they help to limit long - term warming, which is the ultimate aim of closing the emis
reductions in carbon dioxide
emissions, they help to limit long - term warming, which is the ultimate aim of closing the
emissions gap.
Yet, despite the fact that the models systematically overstate the costs of cutting
emissions, they consistently produce estimates of
reductions in economic growth
rates that are, by any standard, minuscule.
«With some level of warming and sea level rise already
in the pipeline no matter what we do, we won't see a
reduction in impacts or even a sudden levelling - off — impacts are projected to increase at the same
rate in all scenarios for the next couple of decades or so, and after that they merely increase more slowly
in the deep
emissions cuts scenarios,» Betts told Mongabay.
The actual amount of
emissions reductions that are needed between now and 2020 is somewhat of a moving target depending on the level of uncertainty that society is willing to accept that a dangerous warming limit will be exceeded, the most recent increases
in ghg
emissions rates, and assumptions about when global ghg
emissions peak before beginning rapid
reduction rates.
As we have seen above, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at levels that will avoid dangerous climate change the entire world will need to peak its
emissions in the next few years followed by
emissions reductions at hard to imagine
rates over the next 30 years.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases
in CO2 concentration; (3) The
rate of rise of temperature
in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the
rates of change of temperature
in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected
rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2
emissions (reducing
emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's
rate) and continue further
reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2
reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting
in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such
reductions in CO2
emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
In 2011, the College set five five - year sustainability targets: to cut paper consumption by half, achieve a 65 percent diversion rate for waste (achieved in 2012), achieve a 10 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a five percent reduction in water us
In 2011, the College set five five - year sustainability targets: to cut paper consumption by half, achieve a 65 percent diversion
rate for waste (achieved
in 2012), achieve a 10 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a five percent reduction in water us
in 2012), achieve a 10 percent
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a five percent reduction in water us
in greenhouse gas
emissions and a five percent
reduction in water us
in water use.
We initiated the approval process for six new methodologies, expected to be adopted
in 2012, including REDD + modules,
emission reductions in rice production, truck stop electrification, fertilizer
rate reduction and wetlands restoration
in addition to requirements for REDD + projects nested within a jurisdictional framework.
To be eligible for the Responsible Care Company of the Year award, companies must demonstrate they have met and surpassed Responsible Care performance criteria, including: a safety performance
rating in the top 10 percent of companies
in their size category, with no significant process incidents
in the previous year; positive performance measures
in the areas of transportation safety, process safety and
emissions reduction; and demonstrated improvements
in EHS&S performance, product stewardship, distribution safety and emergency preparedness.
[3] Each state has interim targets it must meet beginning
in 2020, and the EPA proposed that states use a combination of four «building blocks» to achieve the
emissions reductions: (1) improving the efficiency (heat
rate) of existing coal - fired power plants; (2) switching from coal - fired power by increasing the use and capacity factor, or efficiency, of natural - gas combined - cycle power plants; (3) using less carbon - intensive generating power, such as renewable energy or nuclear power; and (4) increasing demand - side energy - efficiency measures.
The 2007 IPCC report found that the cost of actions to stabilize concentrations of heat - trapping
emissions at a level that gives us a good chance of avoiding dangerous warming would amount to less than a 0.12 percent
reduction in average annual global gross domestic product (GDP) growth
rate in 2050.
The difference between Professor Nordhaus's optimal carbon tax policy and a fifty - year delay policy is insignificant economically or climatologically
in view of major uncertainties
in (1) future economic growth (including
reductions in carbon
emissions intensity); (2) the physical science (e.g., the climate sensitivity); (3) future positive and negative environmental impacts (e.g., the economic «damage function»); (4) the evaluation of long - term economic costs and benefits (e.g., the discount
rate); and (5) the international political process (e.g., the impact of less than full participation).