The article in The Independent makes its predictions based on the increased speed of
reduction of the Sea Ice Area compared to last year.
Not exact matches
«We have documented loss
of sea ice and
reductions of habitat for Arctic marine mammals across most
of the circumpolar Arctic, so this
area is not unique,» said co-author Kristin Laidre, a UW associate professor in the School
of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences and the Polar Science Center.
Max — I believe you did some
of the math wrong by using only half
of the Earth's surface to compare with all
of the
area with reduced
sea ice, which is why you seem to have overestimated the W / m2
reduction.
Fig 2 Variations
of sea -
ice area since 1972, showing a recent
reduction in the amplitude
of the fluctuations (4).
Model studies suggest that a collapse
of the AMOC could lead to a
reduction in surface air temperature
of around 1 - 3 °C in the North Atlantic region and surrounding land masses, but with local cooling
of up to 8 °C in
areas of increased
sea ice (Vellinga and Wood, 2002; Vellinga et al 2002; Manabe and Stouffer; 1997; Jacob et al 2005).
Increased surface melting, loss
of ice shelves, and
reduction of summer and autumn
sea ice around the Antarctic and Greenland continents during the warmest interglacials would have a year - round effect on temperature, because the increased
area of open water has its largest impact on surface air temperature in the cool seasons.
The observed effects
of cryosphere
reduction include modification
of river regimes due to enhanced glacial melt, snowmelt advance and enhanced winter base flow; formation
of thermokarst terrain and disappearance
of surface lakes in thawing permafrost; decrease in potential travel days
of vehicles over frozen roads in the Arctic; enhanced potential for glacier hazards and slope instability due to mechanical weakening driven by
ice and permafrost melting; regional ocean freshening;
sea - level rise due to glacier and
ice sheet shrinkage; biotic colonisation and faunal changes in deglaciated terrain; changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems affected by lake -
ice and
sea -
ice reduction; changes in livelihoods; reduced tourism activities related to skiing,
ice climbing and scenic activities in cryospheric
areas affected by degradation; and increased ease
of ship transportation in the Arctic.