Differences in carbon prices can be attributed to differences in
reference scenario emissions, and thus the level of abatement required, along with differences in the cost of abatement technologies.
Two rounds of analysis were performed using
reference scenario emissions, with emission control levels adjusted so that regional surface pollutant concentrations were consistent with the assumed regional income levels (Smith et al. 2011).
Not exact matches
Curiously, the Stern documents define «business - as - usual» by
reference to the IPCC A2
scenario, and calculate the required reductions in
emissions against this benchmark.
If only additional
emissions were counted with
reference to a stay - home
scenario, air travel may well come out as the dominant
emissions component.
At the high CL
scenarios, I note the following possible additional sources (beyond or current
emissions, and see list of
references at the end of this post):
For the 12 countries with individual controls, we adjust that country's modeled
emissions from a
reference scenario (based on the IPCCs RCP 8.5
scenario).
Interestingly, the recent ABARE AP6
reference emission scenario gives an upper temperature almost as high in 2030 (0.05 Â °C lower and it is largely based on IEA projections).
The latest relevant ABARE publication («Economic impact of climate change policy», ABARE Research Report 06 - 7) says that global CO2
emissions in its
reference case closely follow those under the IPCC's A2
scenario to 2030 and that the latter
scenario assumes a decline in economic growth after that year (pps.
You also said that «the recent ABARE AP6
reference emission scenario gives an upper temperature almost as high in 2030 (0.05 Â °C lower» and that «If more aggressive sulphate reductions were to occur, warming would be as high [as in A1T] by that time.»
In practice the growth in
emissions is likely to be considerably less than this, because the IEA
Reference Scenario does not take account of new policies that are under consideration in many countries.
The latest IEA
Reference Scenario (that in WEO 2005) shows the same increase in CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2030 — the end - point of the projection — as the IPCC B1 s
Scenario (that in WEO 2005) shows the same increase in CO2
emissions between 2000 and 2030 — the end - point of the projection — as the IPCC B1
scenarioscenario.
In addition to the Base Policy case, EIA's analysis includes several sensitivity cases encompassing different interpretations or implementations of the proposed rule as well as a
scenario in which further
emissions reductions are required beyond 2030, all of which use the AEO2015
Reference case as their baseline.
Pollutant gas and aerosol
emissions levels in the
reference scenario were checked for consistency by estimating regional surface particulate and ozone levels using the MOZART atmospheric chemistry model.
As global population rises and more people move into cities, global cement production is set to grow by 12 to 23 % by 2050, and despite increasing efficiencies, direct carbon
emissions from the cement industry are expected to increase by 4 % globally by 2050 under the IEA
Reference Technology
Scenario (RTS).
The energy system
reference cases used for future greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission pathways in climate change research are a case in point: baseline
emission scenarios commonly project levels of coal combustion many times higher than current reserve estimates by the year 2100.
The new baseline should be the IEA 450 (2 °C)
scenario, which as this WEO shows is not a static
reference point in terms of the pathway to delivering the
emissions outcome.
For
reference, the IEA's 2017 Sustainable Development
Scenario (SDS) sees coal, oil and gas allocated 36 %, 37 % and 28 % of the 2 °C
emissions budget to 2040.
(The formal
reference for the Uppsala study is «The Study of World Oil Resources and the Impact on IPCC
Emissions Scenarios, Anders Sivertsson, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, Sweden, www.isv.uu.se/uhdsg".)
Bringing electricity to everyone by 2030 would require electricity generation in 2030 to be only 3 % higher than generation in our
Reference Scenario... the increase in energy - related global CO2
emissions would be a mere 0.9 % by 2030.
These studies compare a particular climate policy
scenario with a
reference scenario corresponding to the model projection of business as usual (BAU)-- that is, a world in which the economy continues on its current course with carbon
emissions unchecked.
(2) U.S.
emissions in the EIA
Reference Case are very similar to those in the IEA's Current Policies
Scenario.
U.S.
emissions in the EIA
Reference Case are very similar to those in the IEA's Current Policies
Scenario.
[6] The Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy forecasts in their Annual Energy Outlook 2010 that 2020 fossil CO2
emissions in the US will be 3.2 % lower than they were in 2005, this under a
reference case (i.e., a business - as - usual
scenario) in which the United States does not enact national climate policy.
The WEO 2006 Alternative Policy
scenario shows that CO2 emissions can be reduced by 16 % from the Reference Scenario with policies that more than pay for themselves: 80 % of these reductions come from more efficient production and uses of
scenario shows that CO2
emissions can be reduced by 16 % from the
Reference Scenario with policies that more than pay for themselves: 80 % of these reductions come from more efficient production and uses of
Scenario with policies that more than pay for themselves: 80 % of these reductions come from more efficient production and uses of energy.
This
reference scenario, also known as «business as usual,» is now lower (leading to 4.2 °C instead of 4.5 °C), in part because the world is already pursuing a lower
emissions path than what was anticipated several years ago.
Updates to the Scoreboard and our C - ROADS simulations also reflect a new
reference scenario for fossil fuel CO2
emissions, land use CO2
emissions, and the other well mixed GHG
emissions.
The SRES
scenarios were constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special
reference to greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor
emissions.
In response to a 1994 evaluation of the earlier IPCC IS92
emissions scenarios, the 1996 Plenary of the IPCC requested this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of Re
emissions scenarios, the 1996 Plenary of the IPCC requested this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of Re
scenarios, the 1996 Plenary of the IPCC requested this Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of Re
Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of Re
Scenarios (SRES)(see Appendix I for the Terms of
Reference).
For example, 2025
emissions for the US would be 5.45 Gtons / year in the
Reference Scenario (selected with the «Grow» choice) and 4.25 when following all of the Paris pledge (26 % below 2005
emissions, selected with the «Reduce» choice).