Denis and I were skiing together in the Alps three years ago when Prime Minister David Cameron announced the ill - fated
referendum on British membership.
Cameron, who is expected to set out plans next month for
a referendum on British membership of the EU, has received a blow as polling shows that such a move is unlikely to impress former Tory voters who are expressing support for the UK Independence party (Ukip).
While this research is specifically about the impact of the Independence
Referendum on the British party system, and more generally part of a narrative to be published next year in the British Election Study book (to be published by Oxford University Press) about the role of political events and shocks in explaining electoral change, it is interesting to speculate about possible lessons for the EU referendum.
More recently, Tony Blair committed to holding
a referendum on British membership of the Eurozone in his 1997 campaign, although he was at marked variance with his shadow chancellor, Gordon Brown.
Prime Minister David Cameron's promise to hold an in - or - out
referendum on British EU membership (were the Tories to win the 2015 election) was ostensibly triggered in part by the pressure from UKIP in the opinion polls.
A further complicating factor, he argued, was that European elections were «inevitably»
a referendum on the British government's domestic policies.
The outcome of
the referendum on British membership of the EU — which has come to be known as the Brexit debate — looks very evenly balanced.
For this week's Trader Poll, tell us what's the best outcome from the June 23
referendum on a British exit from the European Union.
Not exact matches
Hiring of permanent staff via
British recruitment firms increased at the slowest pace in six months in March, with employers perturbed by Britain's approaching European Union
referendum and the global economy, a survey showed
on Friday.
GLASGOW, Scotland — The
British political establishment descended
on Scotland Wednesday to plead for a united United Kingdom, after polls suggested the once - fanciful notion of Scots voting to break from Britain has become a real possibility in next week's
referendum.
For instance, the June FOMC minutes state: «Most participants noted that the upcoming
British referendum on membership in the European Union could generate financial market turbulence that could adversely affect domestic economic performance.»
The
British referendum has encouraged a balanced, intercontinental discussion
on the direction Brussels must take now that the corruption and depth of discontent have been exposed for the world to see.
LONDON (AP)--
British Prime Minister Theresa May has firmly rejected the notion of a second
referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, insisting Wednesday that the U.K. wouldn't attempt a back - handed effort to remain in the bloc.
Speaking to Yvonne Man at Asia open
on: The BOJ and Japanese inflation expectations The
British referendum, its effects
on markets and expectations The Nikkei and dollar - yen Cross-market risks See link for related article.
British low - cost airline easyJet and estate agency Foxtons Group
on June 27 both issued profit warnings pointing to the negative impact of the outcome of the
British referendum on European Union membership
on June 23.
How European markets might react to the possibility of «Brexit,» which is shorthand for «
British exit from the European Union,» both in the run - up to the UK election and its aftermath, remains unclear, although given that UK assets suffered as the result of the
referendum on Scottish independence became less predictable such volatility could conceivably reoccur.
«We believe that if same - sex marriage had been put to a
referendum it would have been defeated, but he chose not to give the
British people a say
on the redefinition of marriage.»
More importantly, the Government is worried that the
British people might warm to the concept of
referendums and push for one
on the EU.
Mr Hague and Mr Cameron are constrained by his coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, whose pro-European stance effectively blocks a
British referendum on the EU during this parliament.
He says the
British people would be given a «false choice» if an in - or - out
referendum was
on offer now.
British voters could be given the chance to have their say
on the European Union in a
referendum, David Cameron has hinted.
She needs approval from the
British government, which repeated Tuesday that a vote
on this timetable was «not appropriate» — although it has not ruled out the prospect of a later
referendum.
Nick Clegg has accused David Cameron of allowing greater uncertainty to hit the
British economy by cultivating hopes of a
referendum on the EU.
In other words, David Cameron's commitment to an in - or - out
referendum on Britain's EU membership primarily for party political reasons has fundamentally reshaped the terms of the
British domestic debate
on Europe but it also has huge implications for both the UK and European integration in general.
It seems obvious why this would be the case: as in the 1975
referendum, the
British would be voting
on something that had already been got underway.
Last month he masterminded a letter of his own
on the EU
referendum, getting nearly 100 Tories to sign up to his proposal for the coalition to legislation
on giving the
British public a vote at some time in the next parliament.
Very often, as in the attack
on Jo Cox during the Brexit
referendum, the attackers are
British citizens.
The bare possibility of a second
referendum after 2014 may have a destabilising effect
on British politics for the reasons he identified.
He said: «I don't think it's any great revelation that different Conservative MPs have different views
on the EU that's why we're having a
referendum because this issue does divide parties, families and friends and we made a commitment in our manifesto that the
British people would decide this question,»
From Harold Wilson in 1975 opting for a
referendum to quell internal disquiet in the Labour Party, to Tony Blair's pledge
on the single currency and the constitutional treaty as gambits to close down the European issue for an election but to encourage conflict within the Conservatives, EU
referendum commitments have been driven largely by
British politics.
The outcome of the
British referendum on European Union (EU) membership has sent shockwaves across the globe that are still reverberating.
British Prime Minister Theresa May
on Tuesday signed the historic letter that will launch Brexit, a photo released by her office showed, as she called for unity even as Scotland voted for a new independence
referendum.
This essay draws
on a longer piece I wrote for the June / July 2016 issue of Survival
on the lessons of the
British referendum for European Democracy.
Many of those backing eurosceptic John Baron's amendment to the Queen's Speech regretting the lack of an EU
referendum bill believe the UK will not be able to secure any agreement from European leaders
on a fresh set of terms for
British membership - making Cameron's strategy of attempting to seek agreement unrealistic.
The
British referendum is based
on (at least) two bad ideas.
On 23rd June 2016, a majority of the British public voted in a referendum on whether to leave the European Unio
On 23rd June 2016, a majority of the
British public voted in a
referendum on whether to leave the European Unio
on whether to leave the European Union.
British Election Study data reveal that a
referendum on EU membership, were it held tomorrow, would be
on a knife edge, with the battleground being for the 15 % of voters who are currently undecided.
On Thursday night, using the
British Election Study, we called the result of the EU
referendum...
With a
referendum on Scottish independence set to take place in Scotland
on 18 September 2014, the
British state's survival is far from certain.
But, one need look no further than the current debate in the UK over the EU
referendum to find other parallels with Repeal — e.g., an internal split in the Conservative party over
British identity (particularly in a world with increasing trade linkages); the difficulty in ascertaining the winners and losers from a fundamental reorientation of trade policy, amidst inherent uncertainty; the existence of tensions between different sectors and regions, stemming from trade exposure; and so
on.
But then he needs to appreciate that some of the issues
on which the 2010 — 15 Tory rebels defied the whip were rooted in 2010 manifesto pledges, a document that included the words, «We will ensure that by law no future government can hand over areas of power to the EU or join the Euro without a
referendum of the
British people.»
Finally, while it is true that the
British press has become notably more euro - sceptic since the 1990s, there are reasons to question how much influence this section of the media will have
on the
referendum result.
A concern that a new settlement will be a stitch - up amongst the major political parties and the vibrancy of the
referendum campaign in Scotland have energised campaigners to call for a convention that is either constituted fully by randomly - selected citizens (as with the
British Columbia Citizens Assembly
on Electoral Reform) or one that is a mix of randomly - selected citizens and participants appointed by political parties (as with the Irish Constitutional Convention).
And even if it does not feature in the
British election debate, the idea of replacing means - tested cash benefits with an unconditional, universal weekly payment to every adult citizen as a right of citizenship will soon be tested at the Swiss ballot box, with a
referendum on basic income in Switzerland due sometime this year.
I also voted for the motion because not only has our relationship with Europe changed since the
referendum on our entry into the EEC but I believe the millions of
British taxpayers under the age of 50 who contribute to the funding of the EU want a say
on our future relationship with Europe — which incidentally should not necessarily be interrupted as wanting to get out of the EU but taking ownership of our relationship with the EU.
The Prime Minister is also the only one of the three main party leaders committed to giving the
British people an in - out
referendum on membership of a reformed EU, a Downing Street spokesman has said, as backbenchers urged David Cameron to adopt new veto powers.
(CNN) Former
British Prime Minister David Cameron says he doesn't regret calling a
referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union — but wishes the result had gone the other way.
Despite heightened discussions regarding
British membership of the EU and a potential in - or - out
referendum, the section
on Europe is a third of a page long and features towards the end of the manifesto as part of the chapter
on international affairs.
Disappointing: David Cameron's U-turn
on a «cast - iron guarantee» to hold a
referendum on the European Union's reform treaty has devastating implications for
British democracy
Either way, recalling how recently Miliband, Balls, Alexander et al forced the European ConstitutionLisbon Treaty
on the
British people without the
referendum they had promised, I find it difficult to subscribe to the idea that they and their Labour colleagues are suddenly all now committed eurosceptics.