Sentences with phrase «regard to climate models»

With regards to climate models, there is a new paper by Jiping Liu in PNAS that infers from CMIP5 climate model simulations that the Arctic will be ice free in September by around 2054 - 58.

With regards to climate models, we have to look at the feasibility of using computational fluid dynamics to produce predictions that actually model reality.

Not exact matches

Even James Hansen regards climate models only as reliable as their inputs, which are exceedingly complex with respect to climate variables.

For example, when examining hurricanes and typhoons, the lack of a high - quality, long - term historical record, uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on storm frequency and inability to accurately simulate these storms in most global climate models raises significant challenges when attributing assessing the impact of climate change on any single storm.

Using climate modeling techniques, the scientists found no consensus regarding whether the blizzard could be attributed to a changing climate.

Can science results be used effectively in policy - oriented integrated assessment models that are our only tool for evaluating global - level impacts of policy and climate change, particularly with regard to land use?

-- 7) Forest models for Montana that account for changes in both climate and resulting vegetation distribution and patterns; 8) Models that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptmodels for Montana that account for changes in both climate and resulting vegetation distribution and patterns; 8) Models that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptModels that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptation.

However, there are lots of disagreements discussed here — in regard to climate sensitivity, hurricanes, aerosols, climate modelling etc. but most of these are serious discussions amongst people who are genuinely trying to come to an answer.

Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to past changes of boundary conditions, including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.

Before tackling the most significant school challenges, schools need to build their own local resource expertise in the model of a professional learning community that builds competence and networking regarding school culture and climate and social - emotional and character development.

The third hybrid model of the new S - Class, the S 500 PLUG - IN HYBRID, sets new benchmarks with regard to efficiency as well as drive - system and climate comfort.

Responding to the current climate of art fairs in regard to artistic production and reception, Paris Internationale is a joint initiative from five emerging galleries — Crèvecoeur, High Art, Antoine Levi, Sultana and Gregor Staiger — as a collective attempt to develop an appropriate model for fostering new advanced initiatives in contemporary art.

With due regard for complexities of the issue, if my understanding of these terms is basically correct, then I have a problem in that while these two elements must be integrated to produce climate truth, it's not clear to me how, without a validated model in the first place, all the proper data can be gathered.

There are other and very separate issues you've raised (in minimal detail) regarding models, but quite frankly GCMs are not and never were intended to project decadal scale variability — and over the scales that those climate models cover there's certainly no «hiatus».

Regarding climate change effects in the WHO results, according to the UK's Hadley Center climate model (HadCM2 — IS92a scenario) climate - change induced disease risks could double by the year 2030 — all other factors held constant.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

James - regarding your comment # 8, I completely agree with you that we need to apply models to better understand climate system processes in response to the spectrum of natural - and human - climate forcings and feedbacks.

In this regard it's important to consider the difference between Crowley et al (2000), who use an energy balance model with a sensitivity of 2.0 to get something like the MBH99 reconstruction, and the ECHO - G climate model, which has a sensitivity of 3.5 and reasonable stratospheric component and gives somthing like Moberg.

Its worth getting past their tabloid like headline «Climate change: a model cock - up» to where they do try to address the issues regarding climate modClimate change: a model cock - up» to where they do try to address the issues regarding climate modclimate modelling.

In LGM simulations land albedo changes are prescribed (at least in regards to ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framework.

I think information regarding emerging climate trends and their correlation to climate models would be useful (though, understandably, at this time tentative).

While there have been several attempts to explain the lack of meaningful action regarding climate change, these models have not developed into an integrated and empirically supported approach.

Finally, none of these models are able to coherently explain the inter-related phenomena regarding climate change that is occurring at the individual, small group, institutional, and societal levels.

1) Regarding the 1970s shift, Ray mentions that: «It's not evident why the smooth trend in 20th century climate forcing should give rise to such an abrupt shift, and indeed the individual members of the model ensemble do not show a clearly analogous shift.»

Well it depends on whether you are talking about Climate Sensitivity (Charney sensitivity... which is modelled) or Earth System Sensitivity (where things like ice sheet extent, vegetation cover etc are regarded as able to respond quickly to warming).

The climate models are built without regard to the natural 60 and more importantly 1000 year periodicities so obvious in the temperature record.

Here is a quote from realclimate.org, reacting to a new paper questioning climate models» assumptions regarding temperature feedbacks:

With regards to «climate modelling», an assumed (positive water vapour feedback) warming mechanism that can not be observed, that there is no experimental evidence for, combined with after the fact, admitted as invented cooling factors....

This is how the climate models seem to represent it — they multiply the effect of CO2, and they do this with a degree of certainty regarding CO2 NOT matched by a similar degree of certainty regarding water vapor (the most abundant greenhouse gas of all).

A stern lesson from history Wyatt / Curry stadium waves require confirmation from analysis and computation; otherwise they risk being regarded as one more statistics - driven model, of which the climate literature already contains innumerably many... this large corpus of cycle - seeking pure - statistics climate models is (rightly) ignored by most scientists, due to the dismal track record of cycle - seeking science in regard to explanatory and predictive power.

The chart at top displays the huge prediction failure of IPCC climate models in regards to global warming - the IPCC predictions vs. actual temperature reality.

The aerosol forcing is the biggest tuning in this regard in many climate models, although the GISS model uses published forward calculations (the right thing to do, but still fraught with great uncertainty), whereas many climate models use an inverse method to get aerosol forcing that matches.

Yet some kind of climate model is indispensable to make future predictions of the climate system and IPCC has identified several reasons for respect in the climate models including the fact that models are getting better in predicting what monitoring evidence is actually observing around the world in regard to temperature, ice and snow cover, droughts and floods, and sea level rise among other things.

The attempt to distinguish between the terms «projection» and «prediction», whether by the IPCC or others, has introduced an unnecessary confusion to the impacts and policy communities regarding the skill of regional and local multi-decadal climate model runs.

My response to the claim by Hans von Storch regarding his proposed 4th type of climate modeling application is

A significant and serious concern among mainstream climate scientists in this regard is the inability of the models to predict climate surprises, that is, rapid non-linear changes in the climate system that have happened in the historical climate record and that may be triggered by current human activities.

The climate models, on which the whole global warming scare is based, are built without regard to the natural 60 and even more important 1000 year periodicities and lack even average common sense.

With regard to model - obs comparison (not possible for your climate sensitivity example), the test is really whether the model mean is is consistent with a given observation trend.

These include efforts to retract the Clean Power Plan, to eliminate the use of the social cost of carbon as currently constituted in federal cost / benefit analyses, and acknowledgement the current generation of climate models has no utility with regard to policy.

As for Climate Etc «s «usual suspects» in regard to non-standard thermodynamical models... surely they deserve a learning opportunity too!

All these years Steve has maintained a very clear (and always polite) stance: he proposed himself to audit some data, models, procedures and conclusions, while not defending or declaring any particular position about the claims made by Climate Science regarding anthropogenic climate change, global warming and other similar Climate Science regarding anthropogenic climate change, global warming and other similar climate change, global warming and other similar issues.

This paper aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes.

Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to past changes of boundary conditions, including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.

Regarding the IPCC and reconstructed temperature, one of the games the IPCC played was to overlap various climate models to widen the suggested uncertainties for a given time period, but this fails to account for correlations in errors over time of individual models.

These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings.

Doc, with regard to point 3, if I was a climate scientist, I would want to know why my model is not tracking reality and want to fix it so that at least the last 15 years or so match up with reality.

The new NIPCC report starts with an introduction covering «uncertainty» regarding climate model outputs, which appears to me to be pretty close to the viewpoint on this topic, which you have expressed.

The goal is to improve model biases with regards to hydrographic measurements and circulation constraints and use the improved model for coupled ocean - atmosphere simulations of preindustrial, historical and future climates.

the model you've come up with is just as useless as the GCMs that the Alarmists use, unless it can be made to have some sort of skill with regards to predicting future climate.

I don't doubt that these cycles affect the earth's temperature, but the model you've come up with is just as useless as the GCMs that the Alarmists use, unless it can be made to have some sort of skill with regards to predicting future climate.