The warnings, from two studies and the UK's PRECIS
regional climate modelling system, are unanimous on one conclusion: the Himalayan region, which includes the two most recent sufferers of devastating flash floods, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand, is receiving more rainfall than ever before and it's only getting worse.
For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies)
a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used.
The weather@home
regional climate modelling system for Australia and New Zealand has been used for a number of different experiments in 2016.
Not exact matches
Better predictions would require improved
climate - measurement tools, more sophisticated
climate models that work on
regional scales, and a better organized
system to integrate all the data, the report concludes.
Scientists are involved in the evaluation of global - scale
climate models,
regional studies of the coupled atmosphere / ocean / ice
systems,
regional severe weather detection and prediction, measuring the local and global impact of the aerosols and pollutants, detecting lightning from space and the general development of remotely - sensed data bases.
By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming
climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a
modeling system with seasonal skill in
regional hurricane prediction.
Within the integrated Earth
system science paradigm, our major research thrusts include the physics and chemistry of aerosols, clouds and precipitation; integrating our understanding of
climate, energy, and other human and natural
systems through the development and application of
models that span a wide range of spatial scales; and determining the impacts of and informing responses to
climate and other global and
regional environmental changes.
These measures of
climate turnover substantially improve
model fit, indicating that the occurrence of widespread ephemeral deep lakes is a pulsed
system influenced both by
regional and global changes.
The session explores
regional integration of records and dynamic
modeling to: (1) understand better the nature of
climate - human - ecosystem interactions; (2) quantify the roles of different natural and anthropogenic drivers in forcing environmental change; (3) examine the feedbacks between anthropogenic activity and the natural
system and; (4) provide integrated datasets for
model development and data -
model comparisons.
Rockel, B., C.L. Castro, R.A. Pielke Sr., H. von Storch, and G. Leoncini, 2008: Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of
model system dependent retained and added variability for two different
regional climate models.
These
systems likely contribute to an observed
regional trend of increasing extreme rainfall, and poor prediction of them likely contributes to a warm, dry bias in
climate models downstream of the Sierras de Córdoba in a key agricultural region.
The Chair of Land -
Climate interactions investigates the role of land surface processes in the climate system using global (COSMOS) and regional (COSMO - CLM) climate models, land surface models (CLM, TerraLM), diagnostic estimates, ground and satellite observations, and field measur
Climate interactions investigates the role of land surface processes in the
climate system using global (COSMOS) and regional (COSMO - CLM) climate models, land surface models (CLM, TerraLM), diagnostic estimates, ground and satellite observations, and field measur
climate system using global (COSMOS) and
regional (COSMO - CLM)
climate models, land surface models (CLM, TerraLM), diagnostic estimates, ground and satellite observations, and field measur
climate models, land surface
models (CLM, TerraLM), diagnostic estimates, ground and satellite observations, and field measurements.
A fully coupled
regional climate, 3D lake
modeling system is used to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with the multiscale variability of the Lake Victoria basin
climate.
This is one of the more challenging aspects of
modeling of the
climate system because precipitation involves not only large - scale processes that are well - resolved by
models but also small - scale process, such as convection, that must be parameterized in the current generation of global and
regional climate models.
Other activities include the downscaling of the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) long - range forecasts using
regional coupled
models, the participation in the preparation of the WMO
Climate Watch
System (providing a
Climate Watch Advisory for South East Europe), and the preparation of the South East European
Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) and Mediterranean
Climate Outlook Forum (MEDCOF) activities.
Farmers, unions, social organizations, indigenous peoples, women and youth (at the national,
regional and global level) have come together to demand
climate justice and fight against the consumerist and extractivist
model that, along with the capitalism and neoliberalism
systems of the modern world, is harming Mother Earth.
«The fact that there is a distribution of future
climate changes arises not only because of incomplete understanding of the
climate system (e.g. the unknown value of the
climate sensitivity, different
climate model responses, etc.), but also because of the inherent unpredictability of
climate (e.g. unknowable future
climate forcings and
regional differences in the
climate system response to a given forcing because of chaos).
There are numerous studies where
regional climate model studies have increased our understanding of the mechanism of the
climate system acting on a
regional scale.
Regional climate models should likewise be considered as «collections of our understanding of the
regional climate system».
We have developed the Integrated
Climate and Air Quality
Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one - way nesting of global —
regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone...
Stenchikov et al. (2006) showed that
models have difficulty in capturing the
regional response of the
climate system (ao) to Volcanic singularities specifically the temperature regime in eurasia in the Giss
model, or in retrodiction ie the Krakatoa problem why was it so warm, thus there is no uniqueness theorem for volcanics.
As we continue developing new weather@home applications —
regional climate models that look at particular extreme weather events — we will be moving to a policy of picking a single operating
system for each, rather than developing all
models for all operating
systems.
Computer
models fail to simulate the magnitude or even the sign of changes of important elements of the
climate system, including
regional and atmospheric temperatures, precipitation, clouds and winds.
He is a cryosphere scientist investigating snow and ice in Earth's
climate system using in - situ observations, remote sensing data and
regional climate models.
Following the trend in global
modelling, RCMs are increasingly coupled interactively with other components of the
climate system, such as
regional ocean and sea ice (e.g., Bailey and Lynch 2000; Döscher et al., 2002; Rinke et al., 2003; Bailey et al., 2004; Meier et al., 2004; Sasaki et al., 2006a), hydrology, and with interactive vegetation (Gao and Yu, 1998; Xue et al., 2000).
«Analyze geoscience data and the results from global
climate models to make an evidence - based forecast of the current rate of global or
regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth
systems.Use a
model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth's
systems result in changes in
climate.»
Others have talked about what this might look like —
regional impacts, measurement quality, reduced funding to GCM
modeling (consistent with their strength in testing subsystems rather than forecasting
climate), and more empirical work and
modeling of those
systems that have a large impact on areas of risk.
With the failure of
climate models to simulate the pause and
regional climate variability, we have arguably reached the point of diminishing returns from this particular path of
climate modeling — not just for decision support but also for scientific understanding of the
climate system.
Climate models are being used to support emissions reduction policies and as the basis for projection of future regional climate variation for use in model - based decision support s
Climate models are being used to support emissions reduction policies and as the basis for projection of future
regional climate variation for use in model - based decision support s
climate variation for use in
model - based decision support
systems.
Current
models of
climate change include sea level rise, land degradation,
regional changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and some consequences for agriculture, but without
modeling the feedbacks that these significant impacts would have on the Human
System, such as geographic and economic displacement, forced migration, destruction of infrastructure, increased economic inequality, nutritional sustenance, fertility, mortality, conflicts, and spread of diseases or other human health consequences [135,136].
«Bergen Earth
system model (BCM - C):
model description and
regional climate - carbon cycle feedbacks assessment» (2009) J. F. Tjiputra1, K. Assmann, M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, O. H. Otter, C. Sturm, and C. Heinze.