In contrast to strong sea surface temperature control on basin counts, unpredictable internal variability in track density is strong over the Gulf Coast and US East Coast - indicating that prediction of
regional cyclone activity, especially landfall hurricanes, is challenging.
[2] However, there is an extremely wide range of natural variability in tropical
cyclone activity, and other factors affected by climate change, such as wind shear and the global pattern of
regional sea surface temperatures, also play controlling and potentially contradictory roles.