By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in
regional hurricane prediction.
Not exact matches
Their hindcasts (and forecasts for ENSO,
hurricanes,
regional predictions, etc.) would certainly look better.
As an excellent example of how vulnerability could be assessed without using multi-decadal
regional climate
predictions (in this case for landfalling
hurricanes), but using the historical record, I refer you to the paper
His current scientific research is focused on
regional climate
prediction,
hurricanes and applications of extreme value theory.
In a series of Atlantic basin - specific dynamical downscaling studies (Bender et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013), we attempted to address both of these limitations by letting the Atlantic basin
regional model of Knutson et al. (2008) provide the overall storm frequency information, and then downscaling each individual storm from the
regional model study into the GFDL
hurricane prediction system.
GFDL scientists focus on model - building relevant for society, such as
hurricane research, weather and ocean
prediction, seasonal forecasting, and understanding global and
regional climate change.
In contrast to strong sea surface temperature control on basin counts, unpredictable internal variability in track density is strong over the Gulf Coast and US East Coast - indicating that
prediction of
regional cyclone activity, especially landfall
hurricanes, is challenging.