Another big change in
the regional ice conditions is the calving of Petermann Glacier along the northwest coast of Greenland in early August.
Rapid ice drift is an important factor in
regional ice conditions, especially redistribution of multiyear ice into areas with high melt rates at low latitudes.
What is needed is a more systematic way of integrating data on the thickness distribution of this ice into models that forecast
regional ice conditions and their impact on ice ocean interaction.
Not exact matches
What I am saying is that they used a
regional climate model which did not include the changes in the Arctic region, and the boundary
conditions they used were those predicted using GCMs that we know got the Arctic
ice wrong!
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using
regional observations of sea
ice area and global NCEP air temperature, sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average summer sea
ice conditions for the Arctic.
Provided that ocean and atmospheric
conditions favor rapid melting in June and July, which we feel are still likely, it is therefore hypothesized that the 2013 fall sea
ice extent will achieve values comparable to those of 2012, with
regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions and dynamics.
Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to sea
ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests
regional differences in sea
ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of sea
ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).
The shipping route to Churchill, Canada was open by 12 July, at least one week before the 20 July 20 mean date; the 12 July 2010
regional ice chart issued by the Canadian Ice Service shows below - normal ice conditions throughout the regi
ice chart issued by the Canadian
Ice Service shows below - normal ice conditions throughout the regi
Ice Service shows below - normal
ice conditions throughout the regi
ice conditions throughout the region.
The
regional contributions this month suggest that
ice conditions will be below normal relative to the past two to three decades, and that they may potentially rival the 2007 record minimum if multi-year
ice at lower latitudes melts back early in the season.
Lukovich et al, 4.3, n / a, Heuristic It is hypothesized that the 2012 fall sea
ice extent will attain values comparable to those of 2011 based on a heuristic assessment of sea
ice and surface atmospheric dynamics, with
regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions.
The heuristic forecast, based on current
ice conditions and the
regional temperature history, predicts open water in Kane Basin and Smith Sound.
The diversity of categories and the selective focus on aspects of
ice conditions that are inherently more predictable (e.g., impact of multi-year
ice on summer
ice conditions) preclude any rigorous evaluation of the predictive success of the
regional outlook.
At this point, the
regional outlook on
ice conditions indicates that the large - scale weather patterns, which dominated in August with cooler
conditions and advection of
ice into the eastern North American Arctic, can also help explain much of the observed
ice distribution at the local level.
Near - simultaneous changes in
ice - core paleoclimatic indicators of local,
regional, and more - widespread climate
conditions demonstrate that much of the Earth experienced abrupt climate changes synchronous with Greenland within thirty years or less.
The
regional outlook for September
ice conditions is generally unchanged from the July report.