Forcing changes of similar magnitude, due to water vapour variations, are measurable as
regional temperature changes in Europe, see Philipona, but aerosol changes are not...
What really concerns me is that I've read a lot about climate models not being able to replicate the magnitude of abrupt
regional temperature changes in the past, and Raypierre has said here that he fears that past climate records point towards some yet unknown positive feedback which might amplify warming at the northern latitudes.
Forcing changes of similar magnitude, due to water vapour variations, are measurable as
regional temperature changes in Europe, see Philipona, but aerosol changes are not...
Not exact matches
This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not
changing sea surface
temperature, caused the
regional changes in climate during the last third of the 20th century, the researchers say.
Even if global warming is limited to these levels,
changes in regional temperatures (and therefore climate
change impacts) can vary significantly from the global average.
Huntingford, C., Jones, P. D., Livina, V. N., Lenton, T. M. & Cox, P. M. No increase
in global
temperature variability despite
changing regional patterns.
New research published this week
in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean
temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of
regional coastal sea level
changes on these decadal timescales.
Efforts to reform the single - sector approach to marine spatial management should incorporate expected climate - induced
changes in temperature, oxygenation, pH, and POC flux to the seabed
in the development of
regional and international management scenarios.
Additionally, there were also
regional differences
in the spatial patterns of
change trend
in the ARNC
temperature at a given time.
Production may be directly affected by
changes in crop photosynthesis and water use due to rising CO2 and
changes in regional temperature patterns.
Resulting
changes in the atmospheric
temperature structure, including from surface dimming,
in turn affect
regional circulation and precipitation patterns.
Human induced trend has two components, namely (a) greenhouse effect [this includes global and local /
regional component] and (b) non-greenhouse effect [local /
regional component]-- according to IPCC (a) is more than half of global average
temperature anomaly wherein it also includes component of volcanic activities, etc that comes under greenhouse effect; and (b) contribution is less than half — ecological
changes component but this is biased positive side by urban - heat - island effect component as the met network are concentrated
in urban areas and rural - cold - island effect is biased negative side as the met stations are sparsely distributed though rural area is more than double to urban area.
However, there are various other plausible explanations, for example: —
changes in US
temperatures since the 1930s / 1940s show
regional variation within the overall warming trend at those latitudes; — actually I'm struggling to think of any others, apart from inaccuracies
in the US
temperature record but these have tended to point the other way.
Using models to distinguish between the forcing histories is thus likely to require a tighter focus on
regional changes, or
in climate patterns, more than the just the mean
temperature.
In fact, regional temperatures changes (e.g. in Europe) appear to have been significantly larger, and quite different, from those for the Northern Hemisphere on the whol
In fact,
regional temperatures changes (e.g.
in Europe) appear to have been significantly larger, and quite different, from those for the Northern Hemisphere on the whol
in Europe) appear to have been significantly larger, and quite different, from those for the Northern Hemisphere on the whole.
Neglecting the significance of the large
regional differences
in past
temperature changes is another classic pitfall
in the arguments put forward by many climate
change contrarians (see Myth # 2 here).
The attribution of the term at
regional scales is complicated by significant
regional variations
in temperature changes due to the the influence of modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino / Southern Oscillation.
At the hemispheric - mean scale, the «Little Ice Age» is only a moderate cooling because larger offsetting
regional patterns of
temperature change (both warm and cold) tend to cancel
in a hemispheric or global mean.
These facts suggest that the
temperature trend most likely occurred through natural
changes in regional climate dynamics, the new study concludes.
A comprehensive new analysis of
temperature changes over the continents through 2,000 years has found that a long slide
in temperatures in most regions preceded the unusual global warming of recent decades, but with a lot of
regional variability and other fascinating details.
Subsequent work indicated that the polar ozone hole (starting
in the early 80s) was having an effect on polar winds and
temperature patterns (Thompson and Solomon, 2002; Shindell and Schmidt, 2004), showing clearly that
regional climate
changes can sometimes be decoupled from the global picture.
Then some climate modelers even have the audacity to publish
regional «projections» saying that the Colorado River will dry up
in 50 - 100 years, or the rainfall and
temperature somewhere else will
change this way or that.
Global climate
change risks are high to very high with global mean
temperature increase of 4 °C or more above preindustrial levels
in all reasons for concern (Assessment Box SPM.1), and include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and
regional food security, and the combination of high
temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors
in some areas for parts of the year (high confidence).
The climate
change in this period is generally believed to be associated with precessional
changes in the distribution of solar radiation, which primarily affect land - sea
temperature contrast, and give only a
regional warming, plus an enhancement of certain monsoonal circulations.
[Response: Despite the evidence for rapid
regional climate
changes during certain past transitional periods (e.g. the Younger Dryas), there is no evidence that global mean
temperature changes of the amplitude seen
in the past century have occured on centennial or shorter timescales
in the past.
-- Projected precipitation and
temperature changes imply
changes in floods, although overall there is low confidence at the global scale regarding climate - driven
changes in magnitude or frequency of river - related flooding, due to limited evidence and because the causes of
regional changes are complex.
The lapse rate within the troposphere is largely determined by convection, which redistributes any
changes in radiative heating or cooling within the troposphere + surface so that all levels tend to shift
temperature similarly (with some
regional / latitudinal, diurnal, and seasonal exceptions, and some exceptions for various transient weather events).
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically
in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase
in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though
regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released
in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight
in the winter would not be so delayed).
The water vapor feedback (a generally positive feedback)-- there is an roughly exponential increase
in saturation water vapor pressure with increasing
temperature, and the relative humidity (at a given vertical level) overall tends not to
change a lot globally, though there will be different
regional trends associated with shifting precipitation patterns.
Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal
temperature changes are widely interpreted
in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to
regional atmospheric dynamics.
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal variations; increased
temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal
temperature cycle on land, though
regional variations
in cloud feedbacks and water vapor could cause some regions to have the opposite effect;
changes in surface moisture and humidity also
changes the amount of convective cooling that can occur for the same
temperature distribution.
That is,
changes to the system are more clearly discerned
in the global mean
temperature than at a
regional level, mainly because the noisy «weather» component increases as you go to smaller scales.
Also, the term «global pattern of warming» implies
regional temperature change, which pushes the climate system response discussion to a much higher level of complexity than when simply talking about
changes in global - mean climate.
As I've written before, while 20 years of intensifying inquiry has greatly reinforced confidence that humans are influencing climate
in ways that could profoundly disrupt human and natural affairs, it has not substantially clarified climate outcomes that matter most: how fast and far
temperatures and seas will rise
in the next 100 years, how hurricanes will respond to warming, how
regional conditions will
change.
While the anomalous nature of recent trends
in global average
temperature is often highlighted
in discussions of climate
change,
changes at
regional scales have potentially greater societal significance.
An assessment of the relationship between significant observed
changes from Section 1.3 and significant
regional temperature changes is presented
in Section 1.4.2.3.
Joint attribution involves attribution of significant
changes in a natural or managed system to
regional temperature changes, and attribution of a significant fraction of the
regional temperature change to human activities.
High - frequency associations (not shown here) remain strong throughout the whole record, but average density levels have continuously fallen while
temperatures in recent decades have risen... As yet, the reason is not known, but analyses of time - dependent
regional comparisons suggest that it is associated with a tendency towards loss of «spring» growth response (Briffa et al., 1 999b) and, at least for subarctic Siberia, it may be connected with
changes in the timing of spring snowmelt (Vaganov et al., 1999).
A new study released Friday
in the journal Science Advances helps clear up a bit of the mystery, by showing that man - made climate
change is responsible for most of the
change seen
in ocean surface
temperatures near the equator across Asia, which
in turn affect
regional rainfall patterns including the Indian monsoon.
Accordingly, there is less certainty about the
changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones on a
regional basis than for
temperature and precipitation
changes.
Even though the average
temperature stayed the same, there were still
regional changes, with cooling
in the tropics and warming at both poles (particularly
in their respective winters):
There were
regional changes in precipitation, too, but they didn't all cancel out like with
temperature.
A central topic will be teleconnections
in the climate system, i.e. how a
change in climate
in one part of the globe (e.g.
temperatures in the Atlantic or shrinking sea ice cover
in the Arctic) can influence climate on other parts of the globe (e.g. Eurasian winter
temperatures), and how we can use this information to improve
regional climate prediction and therefore
regional climate service.
The Great Lakes, North America's largest freshwater feature, have recently recorded higher water
temperatures and less ice cover as a result of
changes in regional climate (see also Ch.
So while CET can be expected to track global
temperature (Lamb's thesis), this is somewhat masked by this additional
regional climate
change, as reflected
in the transition from regularity to chaos
in its Hale curve around mid-18th century (one reason for preferring HadCRUT3 over CET
in identifying multidecadal components of climate
change for recent centuries).
We must look at arriving sunlight and departing light and heat, not merely
regional shifts on earth, to account for
changes in the
temperature balance.
Models disagree on snow water equivalent
changes on a
regional basis, especially
in transitional regions where competing effects occur due to greater snowfall and warming
temperatures.»
As such, wouldn't
changes in wind direction likely be a
regional influence and not a global influence — kind of moving around which areas are «stuck» from one part of the globe to another without
changing the overall
temperature balance of the globe?
This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not
changing sea surface
temperature, caused the
regional changes in climate during the last third of the 20th century, the researchers say.
Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties
in global and
regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset.