However you'd need to specify the exact linear equation that supposedly
relates global average temperature with human population.
Hence, there is probably no single curve
relating the global average temperature to CO2 concentration, but rather, a set of curves that depend on the above factors.
It would be very nice if there were a single curve
relating the global average temperature to CO2 concentration.
Not exact matches
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy -
related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
Correcting this failure is, to my mind, about quantifying the climate impacts» damages in a scale which plainly does not
relate geometrically to
average global surface air
temperature.
Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy -
related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
So, how should somewhat complex matters
relating to
average global surface
temperature anomalies be reported in the media?
There can / will be local and regional, latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal, and internal variability -
related deviations to the pattern (in
temperature and in optical properties (LW and SW) from components (water vapor, clouds, snow, etc.) that vary with weather and climate), but the
global average effect is at least somewhat constrained by the
global average vertical distribution of solar heating, which requires the equilibrium net convective + LW fluxes, in the
global average, to be sizable and upward at all levels from the surface to TOA, thus tending to limit the extent and magnitude of inversions.)
I am particularly interested in how current
average global temperatures relate to those of the past.
My understanding of the viewpoint of the majority of experts in
related fields is that analysis shows that relative to 50 years ago, and the LIA, and the MWP,
average global temperatures are warmer, and increasing in warmth at an anomalous rate than indicated by the data on previous time periods, including the MWP.
There is a major question in my mind of the wisdom of using a «
global» surface
temperature to begin with and a «
global» surface
temperature based on a SST which is more
related to Tmin
averaged with a land based «Surface»
temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is available.
Through horizontal
averaging, variations of water vapor and
temperature that are
related to the horizontal transport by the large - scale circulation will be largely removed, and thus the water vapor and
temperature relationship obtained is more indicative of the property of moist convection, and is thus more relevant to the issue of water vapor feedback in
global warming.
That 150 C range of
temperatures also covers a wide variety of terrains, and ground cover, even deep oceans, and the thermal energy flows in each of those different environments
relate to the local
temperature in totally different ways, so there is no relationship between the «
average»
global temperature (even if it was possible to measure such a number) and the energy balance of the planet.
Despite this natural variability -
related switch pulling
global temperatures down, NASA shows a globe in which few regions experienced below -
average temperatures and where the highest concentration of record - warm
temperatures are centered near the northern polar region.
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual
temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as anomalies based on 1961 — 1990
temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO -
related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century - scale rise in the
average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its
related effects.
0.3 deg C of the 0.7 deg C
global average surface temp warming in the 100 year period from 1907 - 2007 can be shown to be
related to a natural
temperature cycle in the HadCrut4
temperature dataset with a period of about 62 years.
but this occurred under significantly different orbital forcing conditions» This is to make us believe that a
global mean
temperature could drive the melting or calving of the Greenland; but the Eemian diminution of the Greenland ice cap is by no means
related to an
average global temperature but to the local summer insolation that during the last interglacial was up to 30 W / m ² to 60 W / m ² stronger than today's.
Somewhat
related, Snyder estimates the
global average temperature during the previous interglacial (Eemian) to be warmer than now, whereas e.g. Hansen et al (2016, under review) argue that they are similarly warm.
And the following,
related to aerosol forcing of climate: «In 1991, he predicted that, owing to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, in the Philippines,
average global temperatures would drop, and then, a few years later, recommence their upward climb, which was precisely what happened.»
Harrabin's article
related to the fact that
global average temperature appears to be declining, attributed by scientists throughout the world to «natural variability».
Sorry if this is slightly off topic, I am surprised that there is no mention on this website, or
related ones, of http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ showing that the
global mean
temperature for April set new records, and with it the January - through - April
average for 2010.
«Our findings do not contradict the main conclusions of the IPCC on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
related to climate change... The negative impacts under unmitigated climate change in the future pose substantial risks to most parts of the world, with risks increasing at higher
global average temperatures.»
If you can't establish what the range of just the
average global temperature is for the current climate optimum (since the last ice age), how can you begin to establish what the null hypothesis is, particularly as it
relates to attribution of natural vs. anthroprogenic.
As emissions of heat - trapping gases continue to rise, and
global average temperatures continue to increase, we can expect even more of the of extreme heat and
related impacts we've been witnessing in recent years.
The new paper attempts to address this by illustrating how regional conditions
relate to
global average temperatures — and the amount of carbon we emit into the atmosphere.