I know very little about tropical dynamics, but have a half - thought question related to the tropical lapse rate: Is there a simple argument for why
the relative humidity over land is expected to remain fixed?
According to Isaac Held, climate models predict that
the relative humidity over oceans will have to rise about 1 % (a 5 % increase in 1 — RH) to suppress surface evaporation which would otherwise rise at 7 % / degC and create a surface energy imbalance (because DLR increases with warming nearly as fast as OLR).
If someone is still bothered by this, imagine that
the relative humidity over this patch of the ocean is 100 % and the wind is zero.
Values of
relative humidity over sea are taken from the background forecast model not the analysis, for consistency with what is done for temperature.
ERA - Interim and HadISDH indicate a similar decrease in
relative humidity over time for tropical South America.
The all - land and European averages show a decrease in
relative humidity over the period from 1979.
Relative humidity was also low over much of the Middle East, although the south of Saudi Arabia had above - average rainfall and correspondingly above - average
relative humidity over the past twelve months.
Relative humidity was also low over much of the Middle East, although parts of the south of Saudi Arabia had above - average rainfall and correspondingly above - average
relative humidity over the past twelve months.
The absolute humidity will be largely set by the oceans, so water vapor and will increase but
relative humidity over land will largely decrease, resulting in less precipitation than one would otherwise expect, given Clausius - Clapeyron and a constant residence time.
Those curves, as the legend makes plain, show the evolution of
relative humidity over time at different altitudes in the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
Those numbers tell Prather that these winter clouds are cold and heavy, — 30 degrees Fahrenheit and just
over 100 percent
relative humidity.
«We found that
relative humidity generally has been both increasing in the Pacific Northwest and decreasing in the desert southwest
over the last 30 years, reinforcing the patterns of winter melt in the Pacific Northwest and sublimation in the southwest.»
By analyzing this data
over the following six months, the researchers found that clouds that grew at the lowest temperatures required extremely high
relative humidity in order for water vapor to form an ice crystal around a dust particle.
Total column water vapour has increased
over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3 % per decade from 1988 to 2004, consistent in pattern and amount with changes in SST and a fairly constant
relative humidity.
And come to think of it, why would we even expect clouds to increase, given that
relative humidity is actually declining slightly
over land, and staying constant
over the oceans (as AR4 informs us?)
Both fire hazard indices increased
over this period, as a consequence of increasing mean daily maximum temperature and decreasing minimum daily
relative humidity.
Now since
relative humidity remains roughly constant at the ocean surface and the air's capacity to hold water increases with temperature,
relative humidity will actually decrease
over land, particularly as one enters the continental interiors.
Independent sources confirm that
relative humidity has declined while specific
humidity increased
over North America.
Monthly anomalies with respect to 1981 - 2010 in the
relative humidity of surface air averaged
over all and European land areas, from January 1979 to February 2018.
The averages for the last 12 months show dry conditions
over most regions within a large belt stretching across parts of both Europe and Asia, with below average precipitation and soil moisture and much below average
relative humidity, starting in south - western Europe and ending near Japan.
Monthly anomalies with respect to 1981 - 2010 in the
relative humidity of surface air averaged
over all and European land areas, from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Relative humidity averaged
over all land areas declined quite sharply from the late 1990s to the mid 2000s.
Relative humidity averaged
over Europe is more variable, but in general also shows a net decline
over time.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
Twelve - month running means of two - metre
relative humidity (%) from 1979 to 2017 for ERA - Interim, part of ERA5 and JRA - 55, averaged
over continental land areas.
Over land, values of the
relative humidity of surface air are determined quite directly from observational records for regions where plentiful observations of surface air
humidity were made.
Models assume that
relative humidity will stay the same
over the tropics as the world warms, that clouds are a positive feedback and not a negative one, and that cloud changes are a feedback and not a forcing in their own right.
For Europe specifically, it is estimated that the CO2 flux from land vegetation contributes to reduce the global net flux associated with atmospheric growth of CO2, but the
relative magnitude of this sink has been decreasing since the 1990s (from capturing 40 % of the global growth previously, to about 20 % now), likely further to changes in the atmospheric transport of heat and
humidity over Europe.
Over the ocean, the observed surface specific
humidity increases at 5.7 % per 1ºC warming, which is consistent with a constant
relative humidity.
This would lead to lower
relative humidity and less rainfall
over land according to my sense of it, and this drying would accelerate land warming even more.
These metrics emphasise fields between 30S and 30N including 2 m air temperature (Willmott and Matsuura 2000), vertically averaged air temperature (ERA40, Uppala et al. 2005), latent heat fluxes of the ocean (Yu et al. 2008), zonal winds at 300 mb (ERA40, Uppala et al. 2005), longwave and shortwave cloud forcing (CERES2, Loeb et al. 2009), precipitation
over land and ocean (GPCP, Adler et al. 2003), sea level pressure (ERA40, Uppala et al. 2005), vertically averaged
relative humidity (ERA40, Uppala et al. 2005).
The models assume very small declines and increases (less than 1 % pp) in
relative humidity at these levels
over the same period (depending on height) so the data would be very inconsistent with the models and the theory.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for SE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month averages of anomalies
over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the
relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.