Sentences with phrase «relative uncertainty of»
My major critique of the NIPCC report concerns their inability to look at the relative uncertainties of different explanations / hypotheses: They pretend that their pet pieve theories are somehow more certain (ie supported by stronger evidence) than the mainstream theories.
https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/ Not exact matches
At the same time, given rising geopolitical uncertainty, markets look sure to be more temperamental after years of relative calm.
The relative value strategy generally has performed well during periods of equity market uncertainty and in flat to rising bond markets.6
While there is no doubt that this regime change comes with a wider range of uncertainty relative to recent quarters, we are confident that expected monetary tightening will be well advertised and deliberate.
Although Canadian earnings have been holding up well, the market has cheapened relative to global stocks likely on account of the uncertainty overhang.
While there are a number of factors for investors to stay mindful of — including relatively lofty US valuations (the S&P 500 price - to - earnings ratio suggests stocks may be expensive relative to historical values), geopolitical tensions around the globe (including the Korean peninsula), and legislative uncertainty (such as the final details and implementation of tax reform legislation)-- healthy corporate earnings have underpinned the market's rally to record highs.
From what you are saying more generally though, I might be worse than wrong and uncertainty of returns is increasing relative to where we were a decade ago.
In this position of incurable uncertainty I began to feel that it was rather unfair to keep my family from taking part in the joy of the season and taking advantage of those precious few opportunities we have to see our relatives.
The vitamin A activity of cis isomers of β - carotene was not included in the determination of portion sizes because of uncertainty about the bioavailability of cis - β - carotene relative to all - trans - β - carotene.
95 % UI = uncertainty interval around the cost and DALY estimates, derived from multivariate sensitivity analysis propagating uncertainty around cost inputs, elasticity estimates, relative risks of disease outcomes and the prevalence of alcohol consumption.
Researchers at Aalto University and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland have succeeded in developing a method which helps to improve the relative uncertainty in measuring the luminous efficacy of LEDs from the approximate five percent of today to one per cent in the future.
The researchers note that the most likely response from industry will involve a combination of the approaches outlined in the study, and although there is a high level of uncertainty in the estimates, the findings provide much needed evidence on the relative effects of different industry responses, and the possible magnitude of health outcomes.
Lawrence expects that the spacecraft will significantly shrink levels of uncertainty for such cosmological parameters as the age of the universe and the relative proportions of ordinary matter (all that we can see and touch) and that mysterious stuff known as dark matter, which is believed to make up far more of the universe than its ordinary counterpart.
The internal structures of giant planets are much less well known than those of main - sequence stars because of uncertainties in the equation of state of degenerate gas, the composition (typically non-solar), the interaction with the magnetic field and, in the upper layers, the relative magnitudes of internal heat and energy deposited from the sun.
This figure gives a sense of the wide uncertainty distribution in the total anthropogenic forcing relative to just the GHG forcing (which also includes methane, N2O, etc) which is a prime reason the instrumental record doesn't inherently give good constraints on sensitivity.
The uncertainty exists because we don't know how technology will be embodied in capital goods and also in consumer goods, and at what prices, especially relative to those of other forms of capital and labor, and how these other forms of capital and labor will adapt.
A relative lack of activity from the federal government could create uncertainty, paralysis, or an opportunity for local educators to innovate.
Fear and uncertainty about the global economy are leading investors to embrace the relative safety of U.S. government debt and slashing yields to record lows.
At the same time, given rising geopolitical uncertainty, markets look sure to be more temperamental after years of relative calm.
Since the beginning of April, the relative strength on foreign stocks has been eroding on euro - zone uncertainty and economic deceleration in Asia.
I believe that the student loan market, relative to other consumer asset classes, is quite opaque, adding further uncertainty about the potential spillovers into the rest of the economy.
Although Canadian earnings have been holding up well, the market has cheapened relative to global stocks likely on account of the uncertainty overhang.
However, the relative temporality of the work's making counters ambivalence; the immediate process and present - ness the work demands eclipses, uncertainty... for the moment.
He stated that, in a time of ethical uncertainty, artists had to reach out for absolute beauty (the sublime) rather than relative beauty.
There will always be uncertainty, as there will be greater relative uncertainty in our knowledge of past temperatures from» proxy indicators» such as tree - rings.
However, there will always be uncertainties: lower economic growth, greater cost or other obstacles to unconventional gas production, higher achievements in energy efficiency, changes that improve the relative competitiveness of other fuels; but uncertainty can also work the other way.
This yields an estimate of the uncertainty (spread) of the means of each series about the true temperature — an absolute uncertainty — not simply the spread of the series means about their common mean value (the relative uncertainty).
What ARM meant: To unravel the uncertainties in cloud feedbacks it was necessary to obtain simultaneous measurements of a broad range of parameters relative to clouds and their impact on the radiative energy balance.
Although uncertain benefits generally are better than uncertain detriments, obviously, uncertainty is worse than relative certainty, and in international dynamics, the sudden windfall of a neighbor can by envy or starvation stir ancient or imagined animosity to conquest.
When the emission estimates are compared over time, the resulting relative uncertainty is generally lower than the uncertainty of estimates for individual years.
There is the possibility that the relative importance of CO2 as a climate forcer increases as it transcends the other controllers of Earth's energy balance (some of which may be masked more in ice age studies — like uncertainties around the amount of ice age aerosol climate forcing, ice age thermohaline stability and as always insolation differences throughout the Pleistocene).
But let's make sure the research is not simply «agenda driven», i.e. to support a political agenda, such as the implementation of a direct or indirect «carbon tax», but real scientific studies to clear up the many uncertainties regarding the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic attribution of past climate change, for example.
CIs ordinarily refer to the sampling uncertainty of the available estimate relative to the true (population) value.
Unfortunately the uninformed denialism (as opposed to the informed skepticism of your Lindzen's and Pielke's) has somewhat masked the uncertainties, as climatologists are constantly led to defend the relative certainties.
(In addition the relative weights of the observations vary, and this adds an additional factor to the resulting estimate of the uncertainty from uncorrelated part of the errors.)
An assessment of CO2 sensitivity is implicit in flag assessment, but it gets conflated with how large you think natural variability might be relative your preferred value of CO2 sensitivity (or how much uncertainty you ascribe to assessments of CO2 sensitivity).
Considering the uncertainties in the modern record, considering the uncertainties in the historical record, considering the methodological uncertainties in reconstructing the past, considering the lack of global coverage in past proxies, nothing can be concluded with scientifically acceptable levels of confidence about the relative warmth between the MWP and today.
In this work, we refer to «deep» uncertainty as the presence of one or more of the following three elements: (1) Knightian uncertainty: multiple possible future worlds without known relative probabilities; (2) Multiple divergent but equally - valid world - views, including values used to define criteria of success; and (3) Decisions which adapt over time and can not be considered independently.
Regarding variability, the ISPM fails to mention that the IPCC found that the larger «natural climatic variability» is almost all in the direction of cooler temperatures, relative to «previous estimations», for the past millenium: «The additional variability shown in some new studies [since the Third Assesment Report] implies mainly cooler temperatures (predominantly in the 12th to 14th, 17th and 19th centuries), and only one new reconstruction suggests slightly warmer conditions (in the 11th century, but well within the uncertainty range indicated in the TAR).»
Is this where we should really be putting most of our resources and focus, given the many layers of uncertainty, complexity, convolution, feedback dynamics and relative youth of climate studies as a discipline (not even 50 years worth of satellite data)?
Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries» Relative Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the «Brazilian Proposal» in the Context of a Policy Implementation
Leaving aside the possibility of sampling issues (we have to acknowledge that the number of model contributions is small), it is encouraging first to note that the uncertainty relative to both initial conditions / atmospheric forcing are systematically reduced as time goes by.
Among uncertainties are those assessing the relative roles of forced climate variations vs natural internal dynamics such as the AMO and PDO.
Indeed, uncertainties in predicting the regional details of future climate change that would arise from following these pathways, and the even greater uncertainties that attend any assessment of the impacts of such climate changes, preclude any credible assessment of the relative benefits.
Second, the abstract admits that, «Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast - feedback climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1 °C for a 4 W m − 2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective» and also «Ice sheet response time is poorly defined».
The first step in being truly objective is to openly acknowledge the large degree of uncertainty which exists today on the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing components and, hence, on the validity of any long - term projections of future impact of anthropogenic factors.
Adapting core principles of risk assessment to climate: To date, the approach of climate change assessments has primarily been rooted in communicating relative scientific certainty and uncertainty around anticipated changes in the physical climate system, along with some basic biophysical impacts that would seem to be generally implied by those climate changes: based, for example, on general understanding of associations such as those between impacts and weather extremes.
The ISCCP calibrations are now the most complete and accurate set of calibrations available for the imaging radiometers on the weather satellites: total relative uncertainties in the radiance calibrations are estimated to be ≲ 5 % for visible and ≲ 2 % for infrared; absolute uncertainties appear to be < 10 % and < 3 %, respectively.
Based on an extensive literature review, we suggest that (1) climate warming occurs with great uncertainty in the magnitude of the temperature increase; (2) both human activities and natural forces contribute to climate change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (including CO2) in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast - feedback climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1 °C for a 4 W m − 2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene.