One way to assess broad market value and expected returns is to look at
a relative valuation measure and track subsequent market returns.
We are able to create factor / smart beta strategy returns and
relative valuation measures back to 1983 for the developed world ex U.S. and to 1996 for emerging markets.
Generally, we observe stronger correlations with future returns when we use aggregate
relative valuation measures compared to using P / B alone.
Value (using both forms, B / P and blended) falls in the bottom quintile of its historical valuation in both international and emerging markets; of 12 comparisons (U.S., international, and emerging markets, constructed using both B / P and the blended valuation, and with
relative valuation measured versus both P / B and the aggregate measure), 11 suggest value is trading cheap, with 5 in the bottom decile of the historical valuation range.
The choice of CAPE is not without its critics, who are quick to point out that changes in accounting rules and changes to the CPI calculation, along with the timing and benchmark issues inherent in
relative valuation measures make CAPE an unreliable metric.
Not exact matches
Price: The price of an opportunity can be
measured by the expected ROI and the
relative valuation of the company compared to similar alternatives.
The Sector Scorecard's proprietary methodology
measures the
relative attractiveness of each sector as
measured by 4 key factors: business cycle, fundamentals,
relative valuations, and
relative strength.
Measured in this way, these private start - ups seem to be fairly safe: their
valuations have steadily marched upwards, and the volatility — especially
relative to public market companies — is very low.
Instead, they've run their finances conservatively enough that they can sit on depressed
valuations for years at a time, knowing that they are still earning a good rate of return when
measured as the cash flow that belongs to them
relative to the price they paid for their ownership stake.
Also newsworthy was that members of the committee opined on asset
valuations more directly than usual: «Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high
relative to standard
valuation measures.
UK stocks (as
measured by the FTSE 100 Index) offer the highest dividend yield of any major region (as
measured by the MSCI World Index).1 UK
valuations are the cheapest
relative to the rest of the world in 15 years.2 What's more, FTSE 100 Index companies with more than 70 % of their revenues from abroad stand to benefit from the weaker pound.
The
relative dividend yield is a
measure of
valuation.
Valuation Summary: Miscellaneous Factors Beta Beta
measures a stock's price volatility
relative to the S&P 500.
After thinking about these ideas, I went to the internet and began searching for a way to
measure relative valuations and get some historical context.
What I'd like to have is a way to
measure the
relative valuation of different factors / styles (possibly could be done for sectors, etc. too.
Valuation Summary: Miscellaneous Factors Beta
measures a stock's price volatility
relative to the S&P 500.
In contrast, the aggregate
measure indicates that profitability is trading very near its historical norms of
relative valuation, perhaps explained by low P / B value stocks having far less profitability than they have historically.
In our first article, we use P / B to
measure relative valuation.
The green line in Panel A traces a new (as far as we know) phenomenon that has received little or no attention in the academic or practitioner literature: the trajectory of
relative valuation,
measured by P / B, of the value portfolio
relative to the growth portfolio.
Almost all of the factors and smart beta strategies exhibit a negative relationship between starting
valuation and subsequent performance whether we use the aggregate
measure or P / B to define
relative valuation.9 Out of 192 tests shown here, not a single test has the «wrong» sign: in every case, the cheaper the factor or strategy gets,
relative to its historical average, the more likely it is to deliver positive performance.10 For most factors and strategies (two - thirds of the 192 tests) the relationship holds with statistical significance for horizons ranging from one month to five years and using both
valuation measures (44 % of these results are significant at the 1 % level).
A leading academic, Robert Shiller of Yale, has, however created a metric to
measure the
relative valuation of the market — the CAPE — cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio.
The horizontal axis
measures the
relative valuation of value versus growth, ranging as just noted from 0.08 to 0.32.
In this article, we present evidence that the relationship between current
relative valuation and subsequent performance for both factors and smart beta strategies is robust over horizons shorter than five years and using
valuation measures other than price - to - book (P / B) ratio.
When
relative valuation is gauged using the aggregate
measure (reported in the right-most column of Tables 1 and 2 for both aggregate and P / B
valuations), we find that the cheapest stocks based on B / P are no longer cheap.
Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan's favorite way of
measuring relative valuation between Stocks and Bond is the Earnings - Yield to Bond - Yield ratio.
In the process of scanning the investment landscape to find value amidst the all time highs for the indices, I've noticed that a number of big cap tech stocks are priced at low
valuations relative to their earnings and free cash flow,
measured on an absolute basis and
relative to their own historical
valuations.
For instance, the blue dot on the value factor scatterplot suggests that prior to March 2016 the
valuation level of 0.14 — meaning the value portfolio was 14 % as expensive as the growth portfolio
measured by price - to - book ratio, and lower than the historical norm of 21 %
relative valuation — would have delivered an average annualized alpha of 8.1 % over the next five years.
Valuation Chart at Left: Compares the Hartford Funds Value Factor Score, a composite measure of relative valuation based on five measures of value, of the stocks that comprise RODM with the stocks within the MSCI World ex U
Valuation Chart at Left: Compares the Hartford Funds Value Factor Score, a composite
measure of
relative valuation based on five measures of value, of the stocks that comprise RODM with the stocks within the MSCI World ex U
valuation based on five
measures of value, of the stocks that comprise RODM with the stocks within the MSCI World ex USA Index.